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talkpolitics
New polling has given reasons for smiles.
New polling suggests that President Obama is pulling even further ahead of Mitt Romney in key battle ground states, including Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania with Ohio showing the greatest shift. For the last month the Obama campaign has run an every effect series of ads highlighting Mitt Romney's record at Bain Capital highlighting that firms closing of many plants and sending jobs overseas. In the industrial rust belt, these ads resonate in a very powerful way. According to Quinnipiac polling, the President has a nine point lead now increasing his lead from what was essentially a statistical tie in their last poll in May.
President Obama's recent executive order has had an impact on these polling figures as well.
But the Obama campaign got good news, as registered in this poll, in the strong positive reactions to the new immigration executive order recently announced by the Obama administration 1. Majorities in all three states expressed support for "a new policy in which young illegal immigrants who came to the country as children will be able to obtain work permits and will not face deportation." In Florida, voters say they support that policy by a 58-to-33 percent margin.
That mirrors what was also found in a recent Bloomberg poll, where 64 percent of likely voters supported the president's decision. And while immigration reform is not a high priority with the Bloomberg poll respondents (only 4 percent considered it a high priority), in states where Latino voter demographics favor Democratic candidates, support is overwhelmingly in favor of the policy change.
Nate Silver's current map which currently has President Obama winning.
An NBC Wall Street Journal poll also found some interesting trends in swing states: Mitt Romney's favorable-numbers have dropped. A month ago, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable score stood at 34-38 percent nationally and 36-36 percent in the 12 swing states. But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33-39 percent and 30-41 percent in the swing states. The reason for the increase? Scrutiny on Romney's leadership at Bain Capital, and his being perceived as out of touch with ordinary people. 2 While the MSNBC story indicates a "dead-heat" the interesting thing for me, is Obama is making significant strides in the swing states. And as Nate Silver notes, that is where the election will be won.
In other election news, Larry Sabatohas an interesting article on who Romney will pick for V-P. And it seems Bob Portman is the leading candidate (but not the only one). Sabato calls the potential Republican ticket as "Vanilla and Vanilla," with the Romney camp making every effort to play it safe. There are other candidates mentioned, Tim Pawlenty and John Thune. You can see Mr. Sabato's list on the link above.
Bob Portman, Ohio seems to be the leading VP candidate for Mitt Romney.
The usual caveats about polls apply: it's early, there's the Supreme Court decision on the Health Care Reform act due tomorrow, and there is still four months left (doesn't it seem like the election never ends?).
1. Under the new policy, according to the Department of Homeland Security, immigrants under 30 who were brought to the United States before the age of 16, meet certain qualifications and "do not present a risk to national security or public safety" will be considered for relief from deportation - effective immediately. The policy is similar to the proposed DREAM Act, which was voted down by Congress in late 2010. But it does not provide a pathway to citizenship, which the DREAM Act would have. Source: CBS News.
2. NBC/WSJ poll: Obama, Romney remain in dead heat.
3. SF Gate. Com: Obama Tops Romney in Poll of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida Voters
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Date: 27/6/12 18:44 (UTC)Part of me wonders if that's an attempt to play the news cycle, though. Get everyone expecting a fairly vanilla pick and then present Rubio as your choice...although I think the executive order was as much about taking Rubio down a notch or two as it was about courting Hispanic votes. Rubio's signature issue is kind of kicked to the curb now.
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Date: 27/6/12 18:51 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/6/12 19:01 (UTC)Or, more to the point, have never set the DVR to record the Daily Show since I am asleep on the couch by 9:30 most nights and still have a backlog of Mythbusters and Top Gear to work through...
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Date: 27/6/12 19:02 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 27/6/12 21:02 (UTC)It really spells out the interactions between people like Rubio and people like Jon. People like Rubio claim that there's only one solution and all other solutions should be discounted, while people like Jon desperately try to find a middle ground instead of just going to extremes.
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Date: 27/6/12 19:41 (UTC)(it's not stalky. I just happened to favorite it in my instapaper account....)
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Date: 27/6/12 18:57 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/6/12 22:29 (UTC)Which may prove to be a problem for the election, the alternative choice is a safe one vs... well... Santorum.
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Date: 27/6/12 19:20 (UTC)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Portman
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Date: 27/6/12 19:23 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 27/6/12 19:37 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 27/6/12 19:35 (UTC)1) Sample: 34% Democrat, 26% Republican. This assumes a turnout closer to 2008 than 2010, which...doesn't make a lot of sense. We know that the Democrats are less energized and the Republicans moreso than in 2008. This is not to say turnout will look like 2010 (where the Republicans narrowly outvoted the Democrats), but more toward the middle of those two.
2) Public Policy Polling, a better pollster overall, surveyed likely voters in the same time period and has Obama +3 (http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/06/poll-obama-slips-in-ohio-127304.html) with a better sample, to boot: 39% Democrat, 37% Republican, 24% independent.
3) Poll is of registered, rather than likely, voters. This would at least partially explain the disparity between the two polling groups.
NBC had Ohio +6 for Obama last time I updated, so +/-3 isn't that big a deal 4-5 months out, but Quinnipiac is typically quite good, so I'd be more likely to accept this at face value if PPP wasn't coming in closer w/likely voters and Quinnipiac wasn't showing such sampling issues. I still believe that Romney will likely take two out of those three states, if not all three outright, barring a significant situation coming about.
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Date: 27/6/12 22:02 (UTC)Nearly 65% think Barack Obama would be better suited than Mitt Romney to handle an alien invasion. (http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/2012-06-26/ufo-survey/55843742/1)
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Date: 27/6/12 23:37 (UTC)Mitt Romney is a thing of beauty. He is like the block of marble, pure and unmarked, so full of potential, just waiting for the lobbyists and special interests to carve him into the beautiful work of cronyism he is destined to become.
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Date: 28/6/12 00:30 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 28/6/12 16:36 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 28/6/12 22:53 (UTC)http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/05/24/are-voters-just-rooting-for-clothes/