On confirmation bias

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

O hail, my fellow mercantile materialists pious noble folks! See, I might be getting it way too simplistically here, but the way I see it, "confirmation bias" = when someone has pre-decided to believe in something without having checked all info on the subject; and then scrambling for all sorts of sources and evidence that would confirm said premise while ignoring all contradicting evidence, thus fortifying their pre-conceived prejudice at the expense of objective investigation of the true facts. (Oh wow, it didn't sound as simple as I intended).

Case in point: a chat I recently had on a local blog over here:

They: Hey, did you watch the new documentary on National Geographic? It was about the body relics of St. John the Baptist that were found in a church in Sozopol! What a unique documentary! They proved everything about the relics... they showed evidence that it's probably part of his body!
Me (e-squinting): Really? They proved "Probably"? How exactly?
They: By the method of exclusion!
Me: But this method cannot be ever a direct proof for anything...
They: Well sure, but it's an established method in archaeology! After all, no contradictory evidence has been found to disprove the conclusions of those scientists!

Well duh, waitaminnit. Actually the method of exclusion is a deductive practice, it doesn't necessarily establish a claim to be a firm truth for a fact, it's more likely to help construct a viable hypothesis that has a chance to become the "generally established hypothesis of the day", no more. Similar to the now widely accepted hypothesis about the birth and early development of the Universe. It'd be preposterous to claim that it's been firmly proven, period. It's just that, given the intel and understanding we have at our disposal at the moment, it's the most sensible scenario possible. Which is different from being the ultimate truth. Think Newtonian physics and the way it was smashed to pieces by Einstein, whose own theory was in turn proven incomplete by quantum physics.

That's why it'd make sense to be prudent and acknowledge that history, too, is no exact science. It heavily relies on statements of contemporaries (or even more often, people who've lived way after the events they describe). And inevitably, the "facts" are viewed through the twisted prism of the worldview (or the specific bias, agenda, or orders given) of the one reporting. Besides, as we know, "History is written by the winners".

As for St. John's alleged body relics in Sozopol... it's a very nice little coastal town indeed. And there's the key to the whole situation. Let's assume for a moment that a person whose description and life story corresponds to that of John the Baptist from the Bible really existed (which version exactly, is yet another very long topic), and there's proof that these are really his bones, then what? And here comes the most interesting part. Whoever had thought that we're talking of some sort of spiritual discovery, revelation or an epochal moment for humanity in general, would better think twice. In reality, everything suggests that the bottomline is quite different and much more prosaic (and that of course, too, is just a theory, only the most sensible one given all evidence -- the method of exclusion, you know). Because it's been hinted by no one but the "responsible factors" in our society: government officials (in the tourism and culture domain), and even some servile scientists. The bottomline transpires from the very words of former Minister of the Diaspora, Bozhidar Dimitrov (himself a historian of renown), who's seen on the second picture above (the guy with the eyeglasses):

"After this discovery, the tourism industry in the town of Sozopol will experience a boom. Pilgrims from all corners of the world will be flocking to our seaside".

He even defended his words from potentially being called out for history forging for the sake of business - by lashing out passively-aggressively at all those who dared to question the veracity of this "discovery": "Why the hell would anyone be striving to work against our tourism industry!?"

And there's no surprise in these statements. Because this ain't about anything remotely spiritual, no. We're talking of economic benefit of a great scale (well, for our tiny country at least). Which ain't necessarily a bad thing really... But let's not fool ourselves, and let's not pretend we're so pious and noble when in reality we're not. Or that we care about historic authenticity that much. In fact it's irrelevant. At the end of the day, as the local proverb says, "Interest shakes the fez", and also "Food makes the struggle" (the original Bulgarian sound of it is much more poetic: [Interésa kláti fésa] & [Hranáta právi borbáta]).

Being a long-time employee in the tourism industry myself (and my well-being pretty much depending on its prosperity at large), I can only rejoice that Sozopol will prosper as a tourist destination - now religious tourism being added to its very rich portfolio, and its fame as a cultural and coastal tourist center flourishing even more. That's just awesome! I'm sure people from all corners of the world will be flocking to our beaches, no matter if these are really St. John's bones or not. And the street kiosks selling cheap Chinese souvenirs and frying kebab with garlic sauce will be multiplying alongside the ancient Greek churches beside the cobbled streets and the cute little boats floating in the cosy little harbor. And the restaurants will be buzzing with customers, and the hotels will be full to the top.

But would Jesus have kicked the merchants from the stairs of the temple AGAIN, if he walked among us these days? The answer I'm leaving to you.

Comments

[fierceleaf.livejournal.com]

> But would Jesus have kicked the merchants from the stairs of the temple AGAIN, if he walked among us these days?

But I do not understand why he did in in the first place!

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

He could've struck a deal with 'em! Imagine all the coin. 50% commission, you say?

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Money changers, that's who Jesus threw out of the Temple courts Not merchants. Because those in charge of running the Temple would not allow "unholy" Roman money with the Emperor's face to used in offerings. And of course, this was never done for free, but usually with a significant fee. Besides the issue of hurting those who couldn't afford it, it was a human created "wall" blocking access to what should have been an act of unfettered freedom.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Because Jesus didn't like people engaging in Commerce in the most sacred site in contemporary Judaism. This is heavily ironic, however, when we remember that the medieval relic trade made what he threw out look like innocent schoolkids.

[foreverbeach.livejournal.com]

I kind of feel better about this knowing that the people advances the nonsense probably don't believe it but are using it as a means for advancing their economy. I also like the idea of fools falling for this kind of nonsense being separated from their money by cleverer people who can put it to better use.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Now that's a true merchant!

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

I'm actually thinking that a tour to all of the places which have one of John the Baptist's heads would be a rather nice vacation. It truly is miraculous to have lost all seven of one's heads in pretty nice locations.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Your guys could've gone for the Jesus cookies (Jesus-cozonac (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cozonac)?) Would've been much more plausible.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Jesus kozunak = WIN!

[foreverbeach.livejournal.com]

It's a social science, not a hard science.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

I like GRRMartin's multi-sided take on events in his Song Of Ice And Fire books: one and the same thing/event/person can be interpreted in many ways by several people who've been at the same place at the same time.

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

You were wrong about something again, weren't you? I don't know what sort of science background you have, but much of what we possess in terms of scientific knowledge consists of understanding that in fact, doesn't come from direct observation.

Calling history "at best a pseudo science" reveals only your ignorance of the methods used by real historians.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

No two people experience the same event from the same frame of reference. It is interesting how witnesses to an event tell divergent stories of the experience.

[auntiesiannan.livejournal.com]

Rashomon must have really blown your mind.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

On that criteria science isn't a science.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

"We don't have a solid, reliable piece of bone that belongs to [John the Baptist or Jesus] (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/06/120618-john-the-baptist-bones-jesus-christ-bible-bulgaria-science-higham/)."

Nuff said ;)

The rest is just sensationalist journalism, which, surprise-surprise, isn't that alien even to a reputed program like NG.

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

As long as there are fools who buy that nonsense, there'll be nice lucrative business related to nonsense. If it brings benefits and nothing to lose essentially, so much the better.

That, from an agnostic perspective.

[foreverbeach.livejournal.com]

GMTA. That's what I said.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

I wonder what Jesus would have made of the Church's history of anti-Semitism in His name? Methinks that he'd think that they were Meshuggeh.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

This reminds me of a Sufi story about a young man who leaves the holy shrine where his father does a brisk tourist trade. The young man's donkey dies far from home and he buries the beast. As he sits beside the burial place of his former traveling companion, he wails in tears over the animal's demise. When people ask him about his distress, he tells them that his great friend has died and is buried there. The people build a shrine on the spot and tourists flock there from all over. Word gets back to his father that a competing shrine has been erected, causing a loss in his own business. When he visits the new shrine that has been erected for his son's donkey, his son explains how the shrine came about. The father tells the son that his own shrine was built the same way.

One of the complaints that Pagans made about Christians was that they contaminated sacred temples with the bones of their saints. Desecration of the Dome of the Rock and adjoining religious structures was also a problem during the Crusades.

[rimpala.livejournal.com]

It's totally Joe the Baptist

No relation to John the Baptist of course, was voted "most uninteresting man in Judea" by his peers.

[nairiporter.livejournal.com]

Sozopol is a very beautiful place, this I can say for sure. :-)

[policraticus.livejournal.com]

This is nothing new. Medieval cathedrals were forever "finding" bits and pieces of various saints and then using the publicity to draw pilgrims and the money that pilgrims carried to their town.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

There is never anything new, everything is a well forgotten old thing.

'Cept for Baconnaise and Justin Bieber.