talkpolitics | A not-so-Pacific ocean

O hail thee, ~~bloodthirsty warmongers~~ peaceful folks who crave for love and harmony! "Even if you bought from us just one bullet for each soldier in your military, we'd still have work for years and years ahead". That's what our prime-minister Boyko Borisov recently told the deputy commander of the Chinese military at a recent weapons exhibition over here in Plovdiv, called "Hemus-2012" (Hemus is how the Romans used to call the Balkan mountain range btw). Typical Boyko style, yeah. And typically, he was trying to pimp out our arms industry, which surprisingly has remained among the top arms industries in the world, disproportionately large in relation to the size of our tiny country. Some say if our arms industry became obsolete, we'd have to shut down our economy. Smartasses. Why ignore tourism, eh? Imagine if even .1% of the Chinese decided to come here at our Black Sea resorts. But I digress. Back to the Military Industrial Complex (a.k.a. ZOD). It's every arms dealer's dream really, striking a bargain with the Chinese to supply their military with bullets and other exploding stuff. It's like a billion dollar Faberge egg... nah, more like a thousand Faberge eggs, only more explosive. (I wish there was such a bomb).

Our own Batman, Super-Boyko may've chosen the tactic of his salesman wankery pretty damn right, but he hardly chose the right direction, I'm sorry to disappoint him. China itself is one of the world's leaders in the arms production. A recent report by the International Institute For Strategic Studies (NAMBLA) concluded that this year for the first time in modern history, Asia has surpassed Europe in terms of arms expenses. And that's mostly thanks to China and India. While Europe is trying to tie up its pants and slash expenses in all sectors, from pet food subsidies to housing for squirrels, and yes, including military programs as well, in China and India, carriers and nuclear U-barges are becoming a symbol of high status and national braggery. They're the visible indicator for the shift of the center of power of global politics to the East. Go East, Go East, the Pet Shop Boys should've sung. But they've always been out of touch, the poor fellows. It's quite telling that the statement of US secretary of defense Panetta during the military forum Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore a couple of weeks back, was "We have to rebalance our strategy towards the Asian-Pacific region". Well, no shit Leon? I mean look at this...

That guy is making the Hitler salute with his leg, FFS! Who would ever dare to oppose those mofos!? I'm scared...

If memory serves, we talked around here recently that no one is still anywhere near threatening the US military domination on the global scene. Gee, news at 11! But on the other hand, China is arming itself at an impressive rate that only rivals the growth of its economy. Whether that growth will continue for a sufficiently long time to make it the Intergalactic Overlord, I cannot tell. But let's look at the military dimension of that process. China's military expenses have tripled for the last decade. In essence, the Chinese military is transforming from one relying on sheer ~~Zerg~~ human numbers, to one that's far more mobile and technologically modernized (I'm still thinking of the Zerg btw)... If at the end of the 20th century the core of its air fleet consisted of poor copies of old Soviet aircraft from the 60s that could only be used for sprinkling pesticides, now China has become the third country in the world to demonstrate a fighter jet of the 5th generation (regardless of the suspicions that it actually sucks balls big time). A mere show-off? I don't know, the Chinese are not completely alien to vanity. But sounds pretty menacing still.

One thing is for sure though. China has visibly changed its approach. Now it relies on defenses that spread way beyond its land borders - active navy patrolling the open seas, etc. It's prepared to meet any military challenges far beyond their mainland. Because the Chinese read Sun Tzu all the time - in bed, at the table, even while taking a poop in the toilet. And Sun Tzu said when you're gonna fart, better fart far away from your bedroom. It's more hygienic. The Chinese will also rely on strong asymmetric responses to the US sea dominance, like the horrifying "carrier killers" - ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and satellite control that could turn huge carriers to powdered sugar before you can say Cao Ni Ma (please don't ask for translation here). Meanwhile, China is now part of the prestigious elite top-1-percenter club of the owners of classic carriers (for classic non-vertical fighter jets). The plan is to have at least 4 such carriers by 2020, which would rank China 2nd in the world in this respect. Its flotilla of 8 nuclear U-boats is now rivaling that of France and Britain. The air fleet consists of 550 fighter jets, relatively modern, plus 100 bombers. The Protoss would've been proud.

Granted, the Chinese navy still cannot step on the little toe of its US counterpart, but the speed with which it's being developed, is causing eye twitches and stuttering seizures in some analysts. And that's a concern not just for the US, but mostly for China's closest neighbors, all friendly folks who hardly look at these efforts as if they're some peaceful kindergarten exercise. Contrary to all claims from Beijing that this is exactly what it is. The Philippines were the N'th country in the Pacific region to experience the effects of the growing Chinese passive-aggressiveness. In April the two countries were in a massive row over several rocks that are unfortunately located in the exact middle of South China Sea and even more unfortunately happen to be fuel-rich (what a shock), and the quarrel has now involved at least 6 countries, and eventually escalated into outright muscle-flexing. Fears are growing that Hu will finally send the ninja pandas into the brawl and things could get messy.

The other regional giant on clay feet, India got the point a long time ago, and at the end of the last decade it turned itself into the biggest arms purchaser in the world. For the next decade, India's schedule includes spending another 100 billion dollars for war toys. Last year president O'Bummer negotiated the sale of 10 transportation C-17 jets and 100 jet engines F-414 for the Indian fighters Tejas (pronounced the way the Mexicans say 'Texas'). Aside from this purchasing spree, mostly from such nice socialist democracies like Russia, France, the US and Israel, India is also trying to develop a production of its own toys. Surprise-surprise! Its plans include the construction of 3 carriers, 5 nuclear U-boats, etc. The deadline is again 2020. It's almost as if everybody is planning the next Armageddon rendez-vous to be in 2020. India already has the latest version of the Russian ground missiles S-300 at its disposal, they're capable of intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles. They already tested a fat ballistic missile of their own a couple months ago, it has a nice phallic shape and possibly the capability of unloading its... um, load, way beyond Asia's ass. Any bells ringing yet?

America's main partner in the region, the paragon of pacifism Japan, recently completed a deal for modernizing its air fleet. It purchased the new F-35 Lightning II model (second most expensive fighter jet in the world), which they obviously won't be using for sprinkling pesticides, as they almost don't have any arable lands left now after the Fukushima blow-up. This, while on a smaller scale than China and India, is again in line with the general pattern in the region. After they had neglected their military budgets in the years after the end of the Cold War and the explosion of freedom and democracy in the world, most Asian countries are coming to their senses again and beginning to re-arm themselves, each according to its specific standards and needs. It's definitely going to be fun.

All of this of course doesn't necessarily mean that Asia will soon become a powder keg and the smell of war is thickening - I swear everything will be fine! But on the other hand, some things are already changing into a very familiar direction. It was no one but Saruman, a.k.a. Zbigniew Brzezinski himself who said the US should re-think their plans for military maneuvers close to the Chinese shores, using the invincible argument, "I don't think we would be happy if the Chinese were conducting such air patrols and naval patrols next to let's say, San Diego." Why yes, white wizard. I do think you'd pretty much enjoy it!

Yeah fine, no one's threatening the US global military domination. We can all sleep well, end of story. Or it could be that the flaw in this self-complacent argument is that... actually no one would necessarily attempt to threaten it in the first place. China and India and the rest do not seem willing to assume the role of a global hegemon, that would be silly and way too expensive. Instead, the role of a regional superpower seems likely to suit them better. Kind of an "OK I'm not trying to rule the world, but you won't rule my backyard either, so GTFO LOL" sort of thing.

China is going to further pump up its military budget by another 11.2% for this year. That's nice, China.