Obama's Uphill Battle: Early June Edition

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

"Taken together, the beginning of June 2012 may be remembered as a time period that shook the pillars of the Obama reelection effort. If nothing else, it’s shown the 2012 landscape to be so different from 2008 as to make assumptions based on four years ago seem worthless."

When even the mainstream media is catching on that Obama's in trouble, well...

The takeaway from that article only discusses some of the key newsworthy issues of the last week or so, from verbal gaffes to the jobs report to the Wisconsin recall. The reality, for Obama's reelection prospects, are much more troubling than just the last week.

* As noted in the ABC analysis, the May jobs report was fairly dismal. 69k net jobs added, the numbers from March and April revised downward, and the job additions were much lower than the already-meager predictions from those supposedly in the know.

* Romney, against expectations of many here, is closing the favorability gap, gaining 10 points in a month. Even better, and against many people's common wisdom, Romney's gains have largely been with women. Romney's up 13 points with women, while Obama lost 7. Obama still leads in these areas, but the trend is firmly in Romney's column.

* NBC released some swing state polling a couple weeks ago as well, and it's not good news for Obama. Swing state polling, up to this point, was one of the few, but significant, bright spots for Obama's chances going forward. As these polls begin to come out, though, we see Romney beginning to narrow this gap even before heavy campaigning has begun. The NBC polls, which are of registered voters, show the candidates tied in Iowa (with 10% undecided), Obama +1 in Colorado (8% undecided), and Obama +2 in Nevada (5% undecided). As these polls are of registered voters, the likely voter screen will almost certainly favor Romney, and one has to wonder which way the majority of those undecideds would end up breaking.

The trends in other swing states are only marginally better according to NBC: Florida has Obama +4, Virginia Obama +4, and Ohio Obama +6. In all of these polls, along with the ones in the previous paragraph, Obama is losing ground to Romney compared to previous polling, there are more undecided voters than the margin between the candidates, and, perhaps most importantly, Obama does not break 50%. This may indicate a ceiling of sorts for Obama.

* Finally, in an indicator of enthusiasm and campaign ability, Mitt Romney outraised Barack Obama in May. This only measures contributions to the individual campaigns and to the political parties, both of which have legal donation limits, and Romney beat Obama in these combined donations by close to $17m. Even with the limited value of financial contributions after a certain point, donations like these can give us a good read as to the enthusiasm of the electorate, the willingness of big money donors to open their pockets for tracked, limited funds, and the ability of these campaigns to court these donors. Obama has traditionally done well in this area, and to see him losing a fundraising race 6 months out has to be disconcerting.

The situation with the US Presidential election continues to remain interesting, and things continue to look worse for the incumbent. The best thing he can look for in July is an improvement in the job numbers - something that doesn't look solid on the horizon. In an election that is largely going to be won or lost on the economy, another bad jobs report will be significant given the few positives Obama has to work with.

Comments

[soliloquy76.livejournal.com]

I look forward to a Romney presidency that looks exactly like Obama's, but is praised and defended by the right. /s

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

It will also be fascinating to see that the debt problem isn't really that big a deal, after all, and we can have massive tax cuts and more spending to boost the economy and jobs. Ah, good times!

[geezer-also.livejournal.com]

Fair enough, and probably true.

Taking out a few odds and ends here and there, they all look pretty much alike back to either Johnson or Nixon, depending :D.

The best thing a leader of a "free" country can do is try not to get too much in the way of the direction the country is going.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

[cheezyfish.livejournal.com]

That's the way it always goes down. Obama's presidency looks an awful lot like Bush's too.

[lafinjack.livejournal.com]

(http://www.clowncrack.com/)

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Ha!

[musicpsych.livejournal.com]

True. Only Congress won't have a kneejerk "no" response to legislation he supports.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

I just can't see the Christian Taliban voting for a Mormon. I keep trying to form the picture of Oral Roberts University graduates waving a Romney banner and it doesn't want to establish itself. If push comes to shove, the fanatics may not vote at all, and Obama's base will be more energized by the specter that they might.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

The stupid "Christian Taliban" thing notwithstanding, polling doesn't support your perception (http://blog.christianitytoday.com/ctpolitics/2011/11/poll_romneys_mo.html), and this was from before Romney was the nominee.

But he will still win re-election

[rick-day.livejournal.com]

1. A snapshot of a battle is not an indicator of how the war is going.

2. Who does Big Business support? The perception is that Big Business generally supports the party of NO pesky profit robbing regulation. This cycle it is the GOP. Now, if JOBS are EVERYTHING that is the measure of success of President Obama, do you think Big Business will help Obama and 'create jobs' or help Romney and 'delay job creation' until a few weeks before election?

Think: Iran Hostage Scenarios. There are people who will not hesitate to perpetuate misery in others for political gain.

Ergo, unlike the Red Clods, most rational people take a holistic view of the world, instead of focusing on 'how many jobs did Obama "make" while POTUS'

Re: But he will still win re-election

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

1. A snapshot of a battle is not an indicator of how the war is going.

True. This is not a snapshot, however, but further representation of a continuing trend.

Now, if JOBS are EVERYTHING that is the measure of success of President Obama, do you think Big Business will help Obama and 'create jobs' or help Romney and 'delay job creation' until a few weeks before election?

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to be seeing a wait-and-see approach in some sectors.

Ergo, unlike the Red Clods, most rational people take a holistic view of the world, instead of focusing on 'how many jobs did Obama "make" while POTUS'

That's great and all, but hardly tells the full story.

[devil-ad-vocate.livejournal.com]

Isn't it amazing how Romney has become the darling of conservatives so quickly after the primaries? I haven't asked her yet, but I'm sure my Tea Partier sister-in-law is just as enthusiastic about Mittens as she was about Sarah Palin.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

He's not the darling as much as the option. And I'm much more enthusiastic about him than I thought I would be so far because he's running a pretty solid campaign all things considered. In that regard, it is early, but early signs have been pretty positive for him as a candidate.

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

Considering the OP was flying Sarah Palin colors during the last election, I find this curious as well.

[geezer-also.livejournal.com]

Strangely enough, Romney was considered the more conservative candidate the last election cycle, funny how that works :D

[rick-day.livejournal.com]

They tend to do that. Short Memory *OH LOOK SHINY* Syndrome.

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

It'll be interesting to watch your meltdown when Obama wins.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

I certainly won't melt down, but I also really don't think I have to worry about that.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

how did the tag "obama's uphill battle" get created? Doesn't it imply endorsement of this sort of post? Was there a "george bush is a f@ckwit" tag?

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Is there a problem with this sort of post?

[dwer.livejournal.com]

So this here, from someone who seems to be far more knowledgable about this sort of thing than any of us not only shows Obama winning, but Romney LOSING ground -- directly contradicting you.



I'll be interested in your response.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

I'm taking a longer view than they are, for one. And, for another, it's merely projecting that Obama wins based on current information only 63% of the time. I like the attempts to use a lot of data, but it's also extremely conservative. That's their right, but we'll see when this gets switched.

[politikitty.livejournal.com]

You do realize that it's in the media's best interest to present this election as a horse race, right?

Nobody reads articles about a boring easy re-election campaign, despite the fact that the New York Times, CBS News, NPR, Washington Post, Real Clear Politics, Pollster, (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/10/where-electoral-forecasts-agree-and-disagree/)and even this scary sounding Fox News Post about Intrade data (http://nation.foxnews.com/president-obama/2012/06/04/obama-tanking-intrade) all give a significant edge to President Obama.

It's kinda like that study where people are not able to actually unlearn false facts (http://faculty.oxy.edu/shtulman/documents/2012b.pdf). They just repress them and hope they don't show up at inconvenient times. Anything *could* happen between now and election day. But the most likely route will be a bunch of gaffes and negative campaigning that doesn't seem to have much empirical data (http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/04/04/149875138/do-negative-ads-make-a-difference-political-scientists-say-not-so-much) to support it. Which is surprising because while I was taught that negative ads don't change minds, it does depress turnout. It will be hard to unlearn that nugget of information.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

Which is surprising because while I was taught that negative ads don't change minds, it does depress turnout.

Which is one of the reasons why all that PAC money in Wisconsin helped Walker win.

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

Past trends are not an indicator of future performance. All we can really see is that Obama is ahead. Month by month, less or more ahead, it doesn't matter. Speculation with a splash of confirmation bias does not an analysis make.

Also, the whole shtick of Romney gaining support from a nosediving economy is interesting. I mean from a spectator's point of view of the nonsense. Just as you think people will think it a failure on Obama's part, people may also think Romney would make it much worse. Personally I don't think a President's policies have a significant effect on the economy one way or the other. Maybe they can, like, influence it 5% one way or the other, with the other 95% coming from market forces.

Also, people care much more about their personal situation than the national situation. I think the way you think when you elect a candidate is wholly disjoint from the electorate at large, and your extrapolation of your views onto the electorate (even though your views on government are essentially a fringe viewpoint) is not accurate.

Finally, I should hope that we all want the economy to improve regardless of a Presidential candidate's chances of election success.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Also, the whole shtick of Romney gaining support from a nosediving economy is interesting. I mean from a spectator's point of view of the nonsense.

Was it nonsense in 2008?

[oportet.livejournal.com]

Im not sure how important the economy is, as far as the election goes.

Both are going to stick with Bernanke. Both are going to spend a shitload of money, with no noticable, positive results.

Those are givens for Obama, and more than safe assumptions for Romney - I don't see the economy being a difference maker for truly undecided voters.

[politikitty.livejournal.com]

Voters don't actually make their decisions in that rational a method.

Most voters know that the president has minimal effect on the economy, yet their desire to stay on the same course of action or try a difference course of action is very much tied to their opinion on how the economy is doing.

Their opinion on Bernanke, who will be in the Fed until 2020, isn't part of the equation.

[caerbannogbunny.livejournal.com]

I don't care who wins.

As long as the gridlock on "social agendas" at the Federal level continues until such time as people force the yahoos to focus on international and interstate commerce, national defense, and international politics it might eventually get better. It would be even better quicker if we stopped electing people with the idea they'll "fix the system and make the other side finally adhere to our social values" and stuffed those fights back into the state and local governments where we--as local populations, more likely to be similar in social values--have a better chance to influence our daily lives than the Federal level.

But, that's just me.

I haven't decided who I'll vote for yet, but it'll probably be for people in both parties...