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talkpoliticsThe surprise win of the nationalist Tomislav Nikolić on the 2nd round of the Serbian presidential election last week could be interpreted in many ways, but one thing is for sure. Serbia, and possibly the West Balkan region, is heading toward a new period of instability. If not for any other reason, at least for the very person Nikolić himself. He's been described as Milosević's close ally, and he's expected to make a sharp turn in Serbia's road to EU and NATO membership. Or maybe not.
The leader of the Progressive Party won 51% of the vote, and the incumbent Boris Tadić got 48%, so it was pretty close. Ironically, this election was called early by the incumbent (stating reasons that he wanted the presidential and parliamentary elections to coincide, but possibly aiming to garner more support while he still could). But Tadić's problem was the low turnout. Nikolić has a firm base that he always manages to organize, while the wider array of voters who generally vote moderate, this time didn't turn up in great numbers. And this cost the incumbent his post.
Granted, Nikolić hurried to calm down the passions when he promised that "Serbia will not divert from the European road". So far this statement has been the sole hope the pro-European faction is clinging to. Of course Brussels was the first to congratulate the newly elected president, and urge the future government to continue the EU negotiations (due to start next year, btw). The deadline for forming the cabinet is in September. And who'll be the appointees at the key positions, will indicate what are Nikolić's true intentions.
The result of the election inevitably echoed across the region as well. The problem is that for many of Serbia's neighbours, Nikolić is seen as the ideological successor of Slobodan Milosević, therefore an unrepentant nationalist. He was part of the government in 1999 when the Serbian military expelled nearly 1 million ethnic Albanians from Kosovo and then the ethnic cleansing prompted NATO to strike. But contrary to most expectations, Nikolić hurried to say that last week's vote wasn't a referendum for or against the EU, and he'd gladly have talks with Angela Merkel because he views her as "a key ally within EU".
The Swedish foreign minister Karl Bildt tweeted that "Serbia under Nikolić must create confidence in its will to move towards Europe and partnership in the region". And Jose Barroso and van Rompuy said that "This would require a lot of stateman craftsmanship, in order to overcome the tougher challenges". They also called for improvements in the Serbia-Kosovo relationships.
It's probably true that, in order to keep in touch with the progress of the Balkan country from Milosević's rule to an EU candidate member, Nikolić has undergone a big transformation into a modern, pro-European conservative. The key moment was when he distanced himself from Vojislav Šešelj, who's now being prosecuted for war crimes by the Hague tribunal. A number of diplomats believe that the West should rest calm because Nikolić now truly wants Serbia to join the EU. But still some uncertainty remains about the essence of his policies, and whether he'd build upon Tadić's achievements for strengthening Serbia's relations in the region. The Serbians have made their choice now, and it should be respected, no doubt.
Russia is of course Serbia's biggest ally and its voice matters immensely. Putin congratulated Nikolić for his victory, and the State Duma expressed hopes that the Russian-Serbian relations would improve. The speaker of parliament in Russia said that the only differences between Tadić and Nikolić are concerning the domestic policies, not the foreign. Which sounds encouraging, but is yet to be confirmed in practice.
The markets have also reacted accordingly. Immediately after the election result was known last Monday, the Serbian dinar weakened to record lows against the Euro, probably because of the uncertainty about the future policies of the new president. Moreover, it seems Serbia is still suffering from political turbulence, and there'll be some difficulties around the formation of the new government. As a President, Nikolić ought to hand the mandate to his Progressive Party. But this will probably be met with objections from Tadić's Democrats and the Socialist Party of Ivica Dačić, who, after the parliamentary elections earlier this month, had agreed to form a coalition. Dačić himself has said that the result from the presidential election is making things more complicated. Nikolić's Progressive Party won 73 seats in parliament, and the Democrats and Socialists 67 and 44 respectively. When asked if, given the presidential result, the coalition agreement remains valid, Dačić hinted that Nikolić's victory has changed the political game. "That means that the prime minister-designate is named by the president and the question is whom he (Nikolic) will give the authority of premier-designate, so everything will be more complicated".
But even if the Democrats do manage to form a government, the strange symbiosis with Nikolić the president could stifle the reform efforts that are so direly needed for resurrecting the economy, putting public debt under control, and continuing the road to EU.
Now will be the time of bargaining, and I think it's unlikely that the new government will be formed before July or even August. And even if the Democrats and Socialists do form a government, it could last very shortly. And any future Serbian cabinet will be facing some very tough challenges: total reform of the judicial system, uprooting organized crime and corruption, and cooperation with Kosovo. And these are very sensitive issues, especially the latter. Just like Tadić and the leaders of the other major parties, Nikolić keeps claiming he'd never recognise Kosovo as a sovereign state. It's telling that he never renounced his own participation in inciting and coordinating the Serbian troops who committed atrocities in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo. And this raises some serious concerns about Serbia's foreign policies in the short- to mid-term future.
The leader of the Progressive Party won 51% of the vote, and the incumbent Boris Tadić got 48%, so it was pretty close. Ironically, this election was called early by the incumbent (stating reasons that he wanted the presidential and parliamentary elections to coincide, but possibly aiming to garner more support while he still could). But Tadić's problem was the low turnout. Nikolić has a firm base that he always manages to organize, while the wider array of voters who generally vote moderate, this time didn't turn up in great numbers. And this cost the incumbent his post.
Granted, Nikolić hurried to calm down the passions when he promised that "Serbia will not divert from the European road". So far this statement has been the sole hope the pro-European faction is clinging to. Of course Brussels was the first to congratulate the newly elected president, and urge the future government to continue the EU negotiations (due to start next year, btw). The deadline for forming the cabinet is in September. And who'll be the appointees at the key positions, will indicate what are Nikolić's true intentions.
The result of the election inevitably echoed across the region as well. The problem is that for many of Serbia's neighbours, Nikolić is seen as the ideological successor of Slobodan Milosević, therefore an unrepentant nationalist. He was part of the government in 1999 when the Serbian military expelled nearly 1 million ethnic Albanians from Kosovo and then the ethnic cleansing prompted NATO to strike. But contrary to most expectations, Nikolić hurried to say that last week's vote wasn't a referendum for or against the EU, and he'd gladly have talks with Angela Merkel because he views her as "a key ally within EU".
The Swedish foreign minister Karl Bildt tweeted that "Serbia under Nikolić must create confidence in its will to move towards Europe and partnership in the region". And Jose Barroso and van Rompuy said that "This would require a lot of stateman craftsmanship, in order to overcome the tougher challenges". They also called for improvements in the Serbia-Kosovo relationships.
It's probably true that, in order to keep in touch with the progress of the Balkan country from Milosević's rule to an EU candidate member, Nikolić has undergone a big transformation into a modern, pro-European conservative. The key moment was when he distanced himself from Vojislav Šešelj, who's now being prosecuted for war crimes by the Hague tribunal. A number of diplomats believe that the West should rest calm because Nikolić now truly wants Serbia to join the EU. But still some uncertainty remains about the essence of his policies, and whether he'd build upon Tadić's achievements for strengthening Serbia's relations in the region. The Serbians have made their choice now, and it should be respected, no doubt.
Russia is of course Serbia's biggest ally and its voice matters immensely. Putin congratulated Nikolić for his victory, and the State Duma expressed hopes that the Russian-Serbian relations would improve. The speaker of parliament in Russia said that the only differences between Tadić and Nikolić are concerning the domestic policies, not the foreign. Which sounds encouraging, but is yet to be confirmed in practice.
The markets have also reacted accordingly. Immediately after the election result was known last Monday, the Serbian dinar weakened to record lows against the Euro, probably because of the uncertainty about the future policies of the new president. Moreover, it seems Serbia is still suffering from political turbulence, and there'll be some difficulties around the formation of the new government. As a President, Nikolić ought to hand the mandate to his Progressive Party. But this will probably be met with objections from Tadić's Democrats and the Socialist Party of Ivica Dačić, who, after the parliamentary elections earlier this month, had agreed to form a coalition. Dačić himself has said that the result from the presidential election is making things more complicated. Nikolić's Progressive Party won 73 seats in parliament, and the Democrats and Socialists 67 and 44 respectively. When asked if, given the presidential result, the coalition agreement remains valid, Dačić hinted that Nikolić's victory has changed the political game. "That means that the prime minister-designate is named by the president and the question is whom he (Nikolic) will give the authority of premier-designate, so everything will be more complicated".
But even if the Democrats do manage to form a government, the strange symbiosis with Nikolić the president could stifle the reform efforts that are so direly needed for resurrecting the economy, putting public debt under control, and continuing the road to EU.
Now will be the time of bargaining, and I think it's unlikely that the new government will be formed before July or even August. And even if the Democrats and Socialists do form a government, it could last very shortly. And any future Serbian cabinet will be facing some very tough challenges: total reform of the judicial system, uprooting organized crime and corruption, and cooperation with Kosovo. And these are very sensitive issues, especially the latter. Just like Tadić and the leaders of the other major parties, Nikolić keeps claiming he'd never recognise Kosovo as a sovereign state. It's telling that he never renounced his own participation in inciting and coordinating the Serbian troops who committed atrocities in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo. And this raises some serious concerns about Serbia's foreign policies in the short- to mid-term future.
(no subject)
Date: 27/5/12 15:40 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/5/12 16:07 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/5/12 17:27 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/5/12 17:41 (UTC)Nikolic finally managed to beat Tadic from the 4th try, and every time he posed as the staunch anti-European nationalist. But now when EU has given Serbia the green light for negotiations, he changed the tune and became Tadic v.2.0.
As for the "Parada" movie, you better watch it. I ain't dropping any spoilers.
(no subject)
Date: 27/5/12 17:45 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/5/12 17:46 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/5/12 17:50 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/5/12 17:52 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/5/12 19:25 (UTC)