The new French revolution?
5/5/12 19:14![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
ddstory.livejournal.com posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsFrance and Revolution. The two words go together like raspberries and champagne. And the tradition is about to come true again, yet again Paris in the focus of a new tide that promises to change Europe. Or not.
The date of the event is set - May 6, when the French will elect the next host of the Palais de l'Élysée. And, unless some miracle happens, this time it won't be Sarkozy. It'll be Francois Hollande. Or maybe not. But more likely - oui.
Actually several events will happen tomorrow simultaneously. There'll be a vote in Greece too (you know, the place where the avalanche started). Its outcome will determine the fate of the new deal on the Greek debt and the rescue plan of the Big Three (EU, IMF, ECB). And that'll determine if Greece will avoid a chaotic default and will stay in the Euro zone.
There'll be another two elections tomorrow, in two important EU countries - Germany and Italy. Sure, they're just partial and regional elections but they're not uninteresting either, because they'll show where the winds are blowing, what the moods are on the policies in those countries. We should also add a couple more events from the recent days - the collapse of the Dutch and Romanian governments and the political turmoil in the Czech Republic. The common thing about all these is that they're a result of the rising discontent against the fiscal orthodoxy which prescribed severe austerity as the ultimate medicine against the crisis. People obviously are pissed with this.
All of this points to one direction - the political layers in Europe are shifting. The hard-earned consensus about the way to fight the crisis is beginning to crumble down, and the "Euro commissioner of economies", Angela Merkel is quickly losing her allies and is looking more lonely than ever.
It's still unclear if this is good news or bad. The optimistic interpretation is that the Hollande-lead "revolution" gives a chance to amend some of the obvious flaws in the current fight for saving the Euro. The social tragedy in Greece and the catastrophic unemployment in Spain are just two of the most visible proofs how suicidal the budget guillotine can be. The pessimistic interpretation is that, just when after two years of wandering, the EU leaders had achieved some agreement on crisis management, now that consensus is about to explode. And in a moment when the markets are still too panicky and ready to react to any signal about emerging disagreements between the big players (Germany and France), and possible new quarrels in Brussels on the subject about what-should-be-done. So, after a few months of relative quiet, times are getting interesting again in Europe. And you know what they say about living in interesting times...
These French elections are anything but inspiring, mind you. The expected winner Hollande doesn't evoke any feelings of inspiration, that's for sure. With his deliberately emphasized air of "normalness" and a charisma of a bank accountant, his strongest card is just that he's not Sarkozy (similarly to Romney in the US). And that's weak. But still, his probable victory can't be just a consequence from rampant Sarko-phobia. Hollande himself is trying to turn the vote into something beyond just a vote - something like a referendum on the future direction of Europe, and most importantly its economic policies. As always, the French believe they're the center of the world and everything depends on them, so I wouldn't rule out that this tactic might actually work for him. Just look at his speeches - and I mean look, not listen - because "Change" is the slogan that's been present all over his campaign. Sounds and looks familiar, eh?
And it's exactly his plans for Europe that evoke the biggest hopes and the greatest fears from his possible triumph. The Economist called him "The rather dangerous Monsieur Hollande" and predicted that his entry to the Élysée Palace would be "bad for his country and Europe". Maybe this is a bit too hasty and hyperbolic, I don't know. Not just because Hollande the prez would be a bit different from Hollande the candidate. But also because he has never occupied a post of authority by now, and he hasn't given any indications about how he'll behave IRL once he's in power. But that's not very comforting either. His future policies are hard to predict. And in a moment of uncertainty, unpredictability is the last thing anyone wants.
But the natural fear from the unknown aside, we shouldn't rule out that the new president could turn out a pleasant surprise. Really, there's no serious reason to believe that Hollande would be a danger for Europe and anyone should fear him. He's no Le Pen and he's no Melenchon. Indeed, his closest aides claim he's got a talent for achieving compromise and he's a pragmatist, which should be good news for the queen of pragmatism, Merkel. Meanwhile, the concerns about a possible split between France and Germany in a very inappropriate moment of tension could be just a bluff too. History has shown that the leaders of the two countries are capable of working together in relative harmony, even when they're from the opposite camps, policy-wise. I don't see why this shouldn't be the case this time around, and why the French-German duo should suddenly break down and stop working.
After all, Hollande's proposed solutions don't look so menacing when you think about it. All he wants is to increase the credit-generating capacity of the European Investment Bank, taxing the financial transactions, a more efficient management of the EU funds, and all-European "project bonds" for investments and infrastructure. Only the latter seems to be disturbing the Germans, but even that is not one of the red lines that they've set and should never be crossed, it's just that they have some doubts in the usefulness of such a measure. So that's to be negotiated, it's not something that would cause huge rifts or cataclysms.
The fact itself that Hollande is socialist (and btw that's not the same like communist), also causes some unpleasant memories from the first years of Mitterrand's rule. But even if he wanted, Hollande wouldn't be able to repeat the "socialist experiment" of his predecessor, idol and mentor, who untied the budget and embarked on huge stimulus adventures. Because now times are different, and he'll have his hands tied. There's just no room for mistakes and crazy moves, because the markets would react instantaneously and punish any error anyone makes.
If until recently Hollande used to look like a lonely outsider in his rebellion against the German doctrine of budget austerity, now the roar of the rising discontent is felt from Madrid to Athens and from Rome to The Hague. A few days ago the Romanian government collapsed, just two months after it came to power. The main reason being that they cut too deep and it caused a full economic standstill. And what about the Czech Republic? A few days ago it saw the biggest street protests since the Velvet Revolution of the 80s, and more is coming despite the successful confidence vote for the government. It's still able to survive, but it's shaking severely while the crisis is deepening. And with Rutte's resignation in Holland, Merkel lost her most solid ally in her crusade for budget discipline. The discontent with the fiscal dictate is very visible in Greece, where the only dividing line between the record number of candidate parties for parliament is not along the conventional leftist-rightist direction, but is about who accepts the plan imposed by the Big European Three and who rejects it (the latter camp is expected to win nearly half of the chairs in parliament, so the clouds are gathering).
Well maybe it's a good sign that something in Europe seems to be changing, and Hollande's ideas are shared by others who are not a fringe. Maybe it's time people poised for a minute and realized that measures like those in Greece and Spain (and Britain!) are a failure when taken on their own. It's equally an extremity as super-stimulus adventurism is. The moment for crafting a new vision that's different from both austerity and over-expenditure is ripe. I'm not saying Hollande's ideas would necessarily work and they're the perfect solution, no. After all, he's an oturight Keynesian, i.e. he adheres to one of those two extremities. But what's certain is that a new way of approaching these issues is required at this point.
Mario Draghi, the president of ECB recently said "We have a fiscal pact; now I think we should have a pact for growth too". At first sight he sounds as if he's echoing Hollande's election speeches (or rather the reversed). But there's change of tone even in Berlin, where Mekel changed her initial firm support for Sarkozy with a careful tango dance with his most probable successor (although we should've learned by now that it's too early to dig Sarko's grave yet and it'd be stupid if we drew out the fanfares and heralded Hollande's victory). "We're no consolidation Taliban", the German finance minister Thomas Steffen said. And Merkel herself, in her latest statements, seems to be embracing the revolutoinary flag with the words "Growth or Death" on it. ;)
It's another question if the rising neo-revolution wouldn't end in failure, drowned in lots of words and zero actions. At least everyone agrees that economic growth is a wonderful thing; it's the ideas how it should be achieved that divide people. And there's the problem. Because even guys like Draghi and Hollande who may sound the same, don't actually share the same vision about growth. Like I said, Hollande is pure Keynesian, devoid of imagination and a sense for improvisation. He wants economic recovery through public investment and redistribution. In turn, Draghi supports growth through innovation and competition. Hollande may be fueling an illusion by claiming that Merkel and Draghi agree with him. The evidence of the opposite is there - Merkel's latest statement that Europe needs "political courage and creativity, not billions of euros". This is an outright warning to France that Germany thinks a change of policy should mean structural reform, not wasteful programs for economic stimulus and throwing money on problems without ever addressing the causes for them.
The winds of change may bring a radical turn in Europe's course. But it could also end up in re-packaging of old ideas in a hollow box with a nice looking ribbon on top of it, and a sticked label "New!!! Growth Package!!!" And with zero substance inside. That's the risk. But still, the French Revolution v.2.0 (btw the v.1.0 also started because of an economic crisis), may or may not happen, but it'll definitely bring some people around the table and hopefully they'll start talking honestly about the problems this time, for a change. Or maybe not. Or maybe not as fast as we hope. After all, the previous French revolution lasted for a decade and the results from it are still being assessed today. Nothing changes overnight, but it has to start somewhere.
The date of the event is set - May 6, when the French will elect the next host of the Palais de l'Élysée. And, unless some miracle happens, this time it won't be Sarkozy. It'll be Francois Hollande. Or maybe not. But more likely - oui.
Actually several events will happen tomorrow simultaneously. There'll be a vote in Greece too (you know, the place where the avalanche started). Its outcome will determine the fate of the new deal on the Greek debt and the rescue plan of the Big Three (EU, IMF, ECB). And that'll determine if Greece will avoid a chaotic default and will stay in the Euro zone.
There'll be another two elections tomorrow, in two important EU countries - Germany and Italy. Sure, they're just partial and regional elections but they're not uninteresting either, because they'll show where the winds are blowing, what the moods are on the policies in those countries. We should also add a couple more events from the recent days - the collapse of the Dutch and Romanian governments and the political turmoil in the Czech Republic. The common thing about all these is that they're a result of the rising discontent against the fiscal orthodoxy which prescribed severe austerity as the ultimate medicine against the crisis. People obviously are pissed with this.
All of this points to one direction - the political layers in Europe are shifting. The hard-earned consensus about the way to fight the crisis is beginning to crumble down, and the "Euro commissioner of economies", Angela Merkel is quickly losing her allies and is looking more lonely than ever.
It's still unclear if this is good news or bad. The optimistic interpretation is that the Hollande-lead "revolution" gives a chance to amend some of the obvious flaws in the current fight for saving the Euro. The social tragedy in Greece and the catastrophic unemployment in Spain are just two of the most visible proofs how suicidal the budget guillotine can be. The pessimistic interpretation is that, just when after two years of wandering, the EU leaders had achieved some agreement on crisis management, now that consensus is about to explode. And in a moment when the markets are still too panicky and ready to react to any signal about emerging disagreements between the big players (Germany and France), and possible new quarrels in Brussels on the subject about what-should-be-done. So, after a few months of relative quiet, times are getting interesting again in Europe. And you know what they say about living in interesting times...
These French elections are anything but inspiring, mind you. The expected winner Hollande doesn't evoke any feelings of inspiration, that's for sure. With his deliberately emphasized air of "normalness" and a charisma of a bank accountant, his strongest card is just that he's not Sarkozy (similarly to Romney in the US). And that's weak. But still, his probable victory can't be just a consequence from rampant Sarko-phobia. Hollande himself is trying to turn the vote into something beyond just a vote - something like a referendum on the future direction of Europe, and most importantly its economic policies. As always, the French believe they're the center of the world and everything depends on them, so I wouldn't rule out that this tactic might actually work for him. Just look at his speeches - and I mean look, not listen - because "Change" is the slogan that's been present all over his campaign. Sounds and looks familiar, eh?
And it's exactly his plans for Europe that evoke the biggest hopes and the greatest fears from his possible triumph. The Economist called him "The rather dangerous Monsieur Hollande" and predicted that his entry to the Élysée Palace would be "bad for his country and Europe". Maybe this is a bit too hasty and hyperbolic, I don't know. Not just because Hollande the prez would be a bit different from Hollande the candidate. But also because he has never occupied a post of authority by now, and he hasn't given any indications about how he'll behave IRL once he's in power. But that's not very comforting either. His future policies are hard to predict. And in a moment of uncertainty, unpredictability is the last thing anyone wants.
But the natural fear from the unknown aside, we shouldn't rule out that the new president could turn out a pleasant surprise. Really, there's no serious reason to believe that Hollande would be a danger for Europe and anyone should fear him. He's no Le Pen and he's no Melenchon. Indeed, his closest aides claim he's got a talent for achieving compromise and he's a pragmatist, which should be good news for the queen of pragmatism, Merkel. Meanwhile, the concerns about a possible split between France and Germany in a very inappropriate moment of tension could be just a bluff too. History has shown that the leaders of the two countries are capable of working together in relative harmony, even when they're from the opposite camps, policy-wise. I don't see why this shouldn't be the case this time around, and why the French-German duo should suddenly break down and stop working.
After all, Hollande's proposed solutions don't look so menacing when you think about it. All he wants is to increase the credit-generating capacity of the European Investment Bank, taxing the financial transactions, a more efficient management of the EU funds, and all-European "project bonds" for investments and infrastructure. Only the latter seems to be disturbing the Germans, but even that is not one of the red lines that they've set and should never be crossed, it's just that they have some doubts in the usefulness of such a measure. So that's to be negotiated, it's not something that would cause huge rifts or cataclysms.
The fact itself that Hollande is socialist (and btw that's not the same like communist), also causes some unpleasant memories from the first years of Mitterrand's rule. But even if he wanted, Hollande wouldn't be able to repeat the "socialist experiment" of his predecessor, idol and mentor, who untied the budget and embarked on huge stimulus adventures. Because now times are different, and he'll have his hands tied. There's just no room for mistakes and crazy moves, because the markets would react instantaneously and punish any error anyone makes.
If until recently Hollande used to look like a lonely outsider in his rebellion against the German doctrine of budget austerity, now the roar of the rising discontent is felt from Madrid to Athens and from Rome to The Hague. A few days ago the Romanian government collapsed, just two months after it came to power. The main reason being that they cut too deep and it caused a full economic standstill. And what about the Czech Republic? A few days ago it saw the biggest street protests since the Velvet Revolution of the 80s, and more is coming despite the successful confidence vote for the government. It's still able to survive, but it's shaking severely while the crisis is deepening. And with Rutte's resignation in Holland, Merkel lost her most solid ally in her crusade for budget discipline. The discontent with the fiscal dictate is very visible in Greece, where the only dividing line between the record number of candidate parties for parliament is not along the conventional leftist-rightist direction, but is about who accepts the plan imposed by the Big European Three and who rejects it (the latter camp is expected to win nearly half of the chairs in parliament, so the clouds are gathering).
Well maybe it's a good sign that something in Europe seems to be changing, and Hollande's ideas are shared by others who are not a fringe. Maybe it's time people poised for a minute and realized that measures like those in Greece and Spain (and Britain!) are a failure when taken on their own. It's equally an extremity as super-stimulus adventurism is. The moment for crafting a new vision that's different from both austerity and over-expenditure is ripe. I'm not saying Hollande's ideas would necessarily work and they're the perfect solution, no. After all, he's an oturight Keynesian, i.e. he adheres to one of those two extremities. But what's certain is that a new way of approaching these issues is required at this point.
Mario Draghi, the president of ECB recently said "We have a fiscal pact; now I think we should have a pact for growth too". At first sight he sounds as if he's echoing Hollande's election speeches (or rather the reversed). But there's change of tone even in Berlin, where Mekel changed her initial firm support for Sarkozy with a careful tango dance with his most probable successor (although we should've learned by now that it's too early to dig Sarko's grave yet and it'd be stupid if we drew out the fanfares and heralded Hollande's victory). "We're no consolidation Taliban", the German finance minister Thomas Steffen said. And Merkel herself, in her latest statements, seems to be embracing the revolutoinary flag with the words "Growth or Death" on it. ;)
It's another question if the rising neo-revolution wouldn't end in failure, drowned in lots of words and zero actions. At least everyone agrees that economic growth is a wonderful thing; it's the ideas how it should be achieved that divide people. And there's the problem. Because even guys like Draghi and Hollande who may sound the same, don't actually share the same vision about growth. Like I said, Hollande is pure Keynesian, devoid of imagination and a sense for improvisation. He wants economic recovery through public investment and redistribution. In turn, Draghi supports growth through innovation and competition. Hollande may be fueling an illusion by claiming that Merkel and Draghi agree with him. The evidence of the opposite is there - Merkel's latest statement that Europe needs "political courage and creativity, not billions of euros". This is an outright warning to France that Germany thinks a change of policy should mean structural reform, not wasteful programs for economic stimulus and throwing money on problems without ever addressing the causes for them.
The winds of change may bring a radical turn in Europe's course. But it could also end up in re-packaging of old ideas in a hollow box with a nice looking ribbon on top of it, and a sticked label "New!!! Growth Package!!!" And with zero substance inside. That's the risk. But still, the French Revolution v.2.0 (btw the v.1.0 also started because of an economic crisis), may or may not happen, but it'll definitely bring some people around the table and hopefully they'll start talking honestly about the problems this time, for a change. Or maybe not. Or maybe not as fast as we hope. After all, the previous French revolution lasted for a decade and the results from it are still being assessed today. Nothing changes overnight, but it has to start somewhere.
(no subject)
Date: 5/5/12 16:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/5/12 16:39 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/5/12 03:25 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/5/12 18:16 (UTC)Again?
What happened the last three times the world was on the precipice of horrible death based on the Greek vote?
(no subject)
Date: 5/5/12 18:27 (UTC)*slowly turns the creaking parchment pages of a very ancient book*
Oh yes! Hades crawled out of his pit and wreaked mass havoc and ultimately brought Armageddon. That was the end of the reign of the Titans and the beginning of a new era.
The era of popcorn-eating armchair quarterbacks!!!11
(no subject)
Date: 5/5/12 18:40 (UTC)Maybe he hasn't heard yet but just to the south across the Pyrenees, another such big enthusiast has already tried that medicine. Until the last moment he kept claiming he was seeing the seeds of recovery. And what he left behind was so much debt that the children of his children will have to pay it.
What guarantees that France will be the lucky exception?
(no subject)
Date: 5/5/12 19:08 (UTC)Ju-bi-lee. Ju-bi-lee. Ju-bi-lee.
(no subject)
Date: 5/5/12 20:03 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/5/12 20:08 (UTC)In France the polling agencies are speaking of a solid lead for Hollande before the vote. But those same agencies kept overestimating Melenchon and underestimating Le Pen in the first round, and were proven wrong. I'm not saying it's a trend but I guess what I'm saying is that we have to keep one in mind whenever we speak about polls.
In the short period between the two rounds the agencies have hardly managed to improve their samples too much. And so their "results" in practice don't fully reflect the moods of those who on the first round voted for Melenchon and Le Pen, and on the second are supposed to vote for Hollande and Sarkozy, respectively. That just can't be measured with precision.
So it's pretty much 50:50 on Sunday, much more uncertain than it was a few days ago. But still it's useful to play all possible scenarios of course, in this case those being just... two :)
(no subject)
Date: 6/5/12 05:59 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 16/5/12 10:00 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/5/12 08:40 (UTC)You're right, I think he's totally harmless, but for the wrong reasons. As many of his ilk (leftist bureaucrats suddenly turned populists with a grand vision), he talks too much and does very little, and he'll try to be liked by everybody, and will fail there too. He'll appear on meetings beside Merkel and pretend to be her equal, and she'll play the theater to the end of course.
The problem is, how useful will he be? Will he have control? That's not a certainty. I suspect he's jumping into a role that doesn't match the scope of his capabilities. After all, he's no Mitterrand.
(no subject)
Date: 6/5/12 18:05 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/5/12 20:42 (UTC)Wait... free from what?
(no subject)
Date: 7/5/12 10:17 (UTC)I meant free from a man who :
- never listened to people,
- was a narcissistic person,
- said “white” one day, “black” the next day,
- was a nepotist,
- never understood what the functions of President mean,
- was a spoiled brat taking France for his toy,
- was sponsored by foreign dictators,
- was an impostor without convictions nor vision,
- lied, lied and lied and showed no respect for his interlocutor’s cleverness when doing it,
- set French against other French,
- was strong with the weak and weak with the strong,
- talked like Pétain 2.0,
- is at the heart of 60 corruption affairs
- etc…
Now that this annoying insect is not buzzing anymore in Marianne’s head, there is a chance for her to work in better conditions.
PS : it's not that I have a particular hate for Nicolas Sarkozy himself, he was just the wrong man at the wrong place.
(no subject)
Date: 7/5/12 10:53 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/5/12 10:28 (UTC)