[identity profile] rick-day.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
Everyone pretty much dismisses the LP in the US as being, well, not really a force in politics. More like the place where most of the kookier park their political positions. But not everyone. There are those who can look beyond some of the kooky and wonder "what if...?"

What if a viable candidate emerged that brought the best of a True Compromise? A Social Liberal with a Fiscally conservative eye on managing cost? What if he was on the ballot in all 50 states?

What more would he need? How about matching federal election funds? What LP candidate ever elevated himself to such a position of fundraising ability? 

Looks like Gary Johnson is on his way to being all of that.

Link shows that he has qualified for FMF in 13 of the 20 states he needs, and is well on his way to getting it, according to the cute 'March Madness' NCAA bracket style approach.

A few conservatives I have spoken with said it was a "deal killer' that he would have even spoken to the Occupy people, much less expressed support from SOME of their grievances. Fine. Be that narrow.

No one is paying attention to Johnson in the MSM yet, other than an 'oddity'. But pretty soon, if he can squeeze 3-4 more percentage points out of support, he can be at the POTUS debates, where he can slash to ribbons both Obama and the presumed candidate. I also think the young vote will turn from Obama and his War on Medical Marijuana and to End Prohibition Now Johnson. 

Anti-prohibition sentiment is higher than ever. Roosevelt swept into the White House almost solely on a pledge to end prohibition.

Not only do I think he can take votes from both sides 9as well as the fat middle of Independents, who are clambering over each other for any change other than the current duopoly. Johnson does not sound like a kook and he has as much experience as Bush2 (Well, that is not saying much, but at least he is not a DC Insider).

I think the D's n R's would be more willing to work with someone who is 'not the other side' and to point the finger at when it comes to the backlash of ending prohibition (if there is any).

What do you think? Johnson for real? A Genuine Spoiler? for who? Does he have a chance in hell?


(no subject)

Date: 16/3/12 16:22 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] malasadas.livejournal.com
I don't have an analysis, but my gut tells me he takes more from Obama than from Mittens.

And yes, that is me saying he won't win but he could change the race.
Edited Date: 16/3/12 16:23 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 16/3/12 16:33 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
Like Ron Paul, popular on the internets.

(no subject)

Date: 16/3/12 16:39 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
Where's he going to get the 3-4 extra points? Where's he sitting now?

Johnson is DOA. He's not going to pull more than a percentage point or two overall, if he even gets that. He may pull some Ron Paul voters in at best.

(no subject)

Date: 16/3/12 16:53 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] malasadas.livejournal.com
I don't know. Assuming Paul doesn't run third party, I think you WANT Johnson running.

He may not break through like Ross Perot, but I could easily see him consuming a big chunk of youth voters in towns like College Park, Anne Arbor, Columbus and Madison, and in a tight enough race, that could be a TKO to the President in Pennsyvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.

I seriously doubt he ends up drawing any significant votes from a Republican nominee in today's environment.

(no subject)

Date: 16/3/12 16:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
I do tend to agree with you, overall, but I think you might be overstating his true impact. I think he's more credible than Bob Barr, but I don't see how he's going to significantly improve on his outcome.

(no subject)

Date: 16/3/12 16:59 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] malasadas.livejournal.com
I'd never underestimate the ability of a strong focus on decriminalizing drugs to make college students overlook everything else they supposedly disagree with regarding a candidate.

(no subject)

Date: 16/3/12 17:00 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
...except for every libertarian candidate ever. And Gary Johnson in the Republican primaries, for that matter.

(no subject)

Date: 16/3/12 17:00 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
Prison privatization. Enough said.

BTW, it is interesting that some of the efficiencies introduced in private prisons are similar to Jeremy Bentham's proposal for a "panopticon" prison.

(no subject)

Date: 17/3/12 04:28 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
he's for prison privatization?
how tragic.

link to source?

(no subject)

Date: 17/3/12 20:53 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
His Web site (http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/front) says:
Gary's track record speaks volumes.

Gary Johnson has been an outspoken advocate for efficient government, balanced budgets, rational drug policy reform, protection of civil liberties, comprehensive tax reform, and personal freedom. As Governor of New Mexico, Johnson was known for his common sense business approach to governing. He eliminated New Mexico's budget deficit, cut the rate of growth in state government in half, and privatized half of the state prisons.
Edited Date: 17/3/12 20:54 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 16/3/12 18:50 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] oportet.livejournal.com
If he came up with a catch phrase, and could get himself into the debates, he could move up from 'no chance in hell' to 'almost no chance in hell'.

(no subject)

Date: 17/3/12 04:29 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
he's the sane version of Jon Huntsman, who barely made it into the debate-sphere, let alone the chance-in-hell-sphere. which, as we all know, means he has no chance.
the saner version always looses.

btw, Huntsman is the saner version of Paul.

(ron) Paul is the saner version of (rand) Paul

(rand) Paul is saner than no-one.

(no subject)

Date: 17/3/12 18:39 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] squidb0i.livejournal.com
"where he can slash to ribbons both Obama and the presumed candidate. "

[citation needed]
From: [identity profile] squidb0i.livejournal.com
YAY!

I HEREBY DECREE THAT I OWN A SKITTLE POOPING UNICORN AND THAT ALL THE WALLS OF MY HOME ARE COVERED WITH SYNTHESIZER MODULES!!

=D

(no subject)

Date: 17/3/12 18:45 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] squidb0i.livejournal.com
He's a market fundamentalist.

He wants to privatize or eliminate, well, everything, in favor of unproven experimental 'market based solutions'.

He wants to slash the size of government - and thus the services offered by same- to Norquistian minimal levels. To do so now - with the accompanying demand destruction with fuel prices rising and a once-gutshot economy just getting back on its feet is suicidal. (Hi, Ireland!)

More importantly, he falls outside the simplistic lib/con Rep/Dem bipolar narrative that is the extent of most people's political understanding.

So no, I don't think he has a snowball's chance in hell.
Any more than Paul does and for most of the same reasons, minus Paul's fanatical base.

(no subject)

Date: 17/3/12 19:34 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] squidb0i.livejournal.com
Right.

I have this crazy notion that a functioning capitalist economy with social safety nets is a good thing.

(no subject)

Date: 17/3/12 22:56 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] squidb0i.livejournal.com
I point to the most affluent period in human history, the 20th century to present, where these systems were implemented on a massive scale, and flourished everywhere they were allowed to, and failed only when tampered with.

Ball's in your court.

(no subject)

Date: 20/3/12 21:01 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] foolsguinea.livejournal.com
You don't think you have some burden of proof that your ideas won't fail as massively as laissez-faire did in 1929? I voted for him in the primary, because I think he's better, or less bad, than the warmongering xenophobic mainstream, but I don't think his economics is sound.

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