[identity profile] johnny9fingers.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/poll-obama-leads-gop-candidates-head-head-contests-151032764.html

Isn't really a fact.

And:
http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/1380673.html#comments

Isn't really an induction. Ergo, no tragedy. And as we know, a week is a long time in politics. Any predictions made now are, er, suspect. One might almost think that some folk are hoping for a kind of magical wish-fulfillment.

Nice, but no dice, as yet. Methinks such shilling is a trifle premature, though a necessary part of the political process/debate. But I do find the framing of the debate (as was) rather disingenuous, and ingeniously so. So now comes the question: is premature (ahem) thingummy just down to men-folk on T_P? Or men in general? Or merely pundits in particular?

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 17:54 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hardblue.livejournal.com
Sometimes I wonder if Jeff is a paid member of the Republican Party. He is better than some of their hacks on cable news.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 17:54 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
I suppose I need to put on my British vernacular translator to figure this one out.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 17:58 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Aye, there's something about mods, methinks. Now care to amend ye post a wee bit as per rule 9, ole chap? Oy, oy!

Image
Edited Date: 14/3/12 18:04 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 18:13 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Being the milksop that I am, I'm a fan of erring at the side of caution. But you're a good bloke so I knew you'd understand.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 18:53 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Um, I think you misunderstood my request, tho'.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 19:24 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Two thumbs up, and sorry for all the whining.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 17:59 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] meus-ovatio.livejournal.com
How anyone can look optimistically on GOP prospects when their D-list is running things is beyond me.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 18:00 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
We'll have big swings in both directions by the time this is through, calling it off any swing is not just premature, it's silly. Do you want to be silly? I don't think you want to be silly.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 18:15 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
Image
Edited Date: 14/3/12 18:17 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 18:14 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
STOP RUINING THE PRECIOUS NARRATIVE!!!!

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 18:20 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] meus-ovatio.livejournal.com
All it takes is an old white man to seriously and emphatically state something is true to get people to believe it, cf: Dick Cheney.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 18:35 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] fizzyland.livejournal.com
I'd only disagree that it was ingeniously disingenuous but perhaps I'm jaded.
Image

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 18:45 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com
I thought outing someone by name and calling them disingenuous in an OP was against the rules. Seems like I was mistaken. And I had so many names on my mind...
Edited Date: 14/3/12 18:46 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 19:04 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Still is. 1 hr should be sufficient.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 20:05 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com
10 push-ups would do! No pants on, though.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 20:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
How would he be able to reach the floor?

Oh, wait. Push-ups are not fun. Right.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 20:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com
No hands either!

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 18:46 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
Looks like I've struck a nerve.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 19:05 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
the funnybone is, indeed, a nerve.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 20:37 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
Oh sure, and one expects some wiggle room on poll results being released on a whole. This specific poll is also of adults, which trends leftward, not to mention interesting sampling (http://www.people-press.org/2012/03/13/about-the-surveys-17/), but I haven't dug deep enough into this poll to be able to say much with any certainty.

If my basis for believing what I do was solely on head-to-head polling, you might have a valid complaint here.

(no subject)

Date: 15/3/12 02:58 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
This specific poll is also of adults, which trends leftward,

what what what? How is that possible? You keep insisting we're a center-right country. Why would a poll of adults trend leftward?

(no subject)

Date: 15/3/12 03:01 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
Why are those two things incompatible?

(no subject)

Date: 15/3/12 03:16 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
Is Gingrich the exact same as Romney is the exact same as Santorum? Can something be different degrees?

(no subject)

Date: 15/3/12 14:10 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
What I'm saying is that it's not contradictory to say that a) the nation is center-left ideologically and b) a poll can skew leftward depending on the type of sample.

dwer, as usual, disagrees.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 20:16 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kylinrouge.livejournal.com
I'm waiting for the explanation for how these polls are biased or slanted.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 20:21 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kylinrouge.livejournal.com
Or "they don't count", that's my favorite one.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 20:34 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
They're of adults, and I have some concerns about the sampling, but Pew has a good record.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 23:17 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kylinrouge.livejournal.com
So there exist counter-polls to the narrative that "Obama has an uphill battle", right? And you don't claim they're illegitimate?

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 23:20 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
Oh sure. As I noted in my post, not everything is bad for Obama.

(no subject)

Date: 15/3/12 03:51 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kylinrouge.livejournal.com
That's the best back-handed compliment I've gotten out of you yet!

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 19:18 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] oportet.livejournal.com
Waiting for facts to come out before you make a decision sounds good - except that after facts come out, there really isn't a decision to be made.

You could wait a month from now to fill out your brackets. Sure, it'd be perfect, but not interesting at all.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 19:46 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
That's a little too black and white. There's a difference between making a good prediction based on sound evidence that is likely to be right, and making a bad predication based purely on what you'd like to be true based on no facts whatsoever. The thing is, the facts to make such a prediction literally do not exist yet.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 21:07 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
Blatantly false statement ass-pulled and pretending as though it's obvious everyone knows it, proclaiming this on cherry-picked data and misusing words in a purely Orwellian fashion. All in two lines with a source neither fully read or comprehended presented in a fashion that has precious little to do with the actual source.

This message brought to you by Underlankers Productions, you may now return to your regularly scheduled non-Metafictional LJ discussion threads.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 21:15 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gunslnger.livejournal.com
I'm confused about what you're calling not a fact. A poll is a data point and thus a fact.

(no subject)

Date: 14/3/12 23:00 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] malasadas.livejournal.com
I still want my "Rick Santorum's Frothy Mixture" tag. I promise a post worthy of it if the mods grant it.

(no subject)

Date: 15/3/12 01:29 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] geezer-also.livejournal.com
I'm thinking the way it works is you submit thwe post and request the tag. Everybody likes you I'm surprised no one else has chimed it...after all I am the computer challenged one of the bunch (altho I think I could do that).

This does bring up a point, I have heard "frothy mixture" mentioned a couple of times, and have no idea what it means, since it sounds "dirty" before I make it a tag, I would have to research it, and I am the prude of the group :)

(no subject)

Date: 15/3/12 03:16 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
It's dirtier than you could possibly come up with on your own.

(no subject)

Date: 15/3/12 04:10 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] geezer-also.livejournal.com
Ah, thanks, in that case I won't bother to look, and I'm against it :D

(no subject)

Date: 15/3/12 08:27 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
You might be a click away from some very interesting read! :-)
(deleted comment)

(no subject)

Date: 15/3/12 08:27 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
It's always election season in the US.

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