Obama's Uphill Battle: A Continuing Series

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

The news in the last few weeks regarding metrics and information key to his reelection chances have mostly been negative.

* First, the employment report was a good report by nearly every measure. Private sector job growth, a rise in the depressed labor market, and no decline in the unemployment rate. This is unequivocally good news outside of the fact that unemployment is still well above 8% and the labor market is still very low.

* Obama's approval rating is down to 41% in the latest CBS News poll. This is a decline after he's held somewhat steady for a while, and, worse for him, this is a poll of adults rather than registered or likely voters. Such polls generally trend better for the left and for Democrats. This poll telegraphs two problems for Obama:

1) The same CBS poll found that 54% of Americans believe the President can control gas prices. Obama's record of hostility toward the oil industry, such as with the moratorium on Gulf drilling, is likely to hurt him further on a perception level, even if Middle Eastern instability and a weak dollar are driving the prices upward.

2) For all the chatter, you'd think that Obama made a masterstroke regarding his actions on the contraceptive mandate. The polling, however, disagrees. The NYT/CBS poll shows a majority in favor of being able to opt out, 57% for religiously-affiliated employers. Even more telling? A majority, 51%, believe all employers should be able to opt out. This holds up against genders, too - 46% of women (against 44%) favor an opt out under any circumstances, increasing to a 53% majority when limited to religious employers. Among men? 57% overall, 62% when limited. And this is among adults, again, not just registered voters. This has absolutely been a losing issue for the President.

* Speaking of health, a majority believe the health care bill should be found unconstitutional according to a Kaiser tracking poll. More troublesome (and troubling) - only 29% of those polled think Romney and Obama have similar views on health care. This is lose/lose for Obama - if the bill is somehow upheld, we may see a significant revolt amongst a large portion of the electorate. If the bill is struck down, Obama's centerpiece legislation is off the table and he has to explain to the American people why they should trust him again.

* Anyway, a model for releection probability exists. It's an academic one from Yale called The Fair Model. Models are what they are, so the usual caveats apply (for example - this model had Bush losing to Kerry), but someone made a handy Fair Model calculator to plug in your information anyway. You can try any number of different predictions to make it work, but you'll quickly find how difficult it is to make realistic numbers work in Obama's favor. IHS Global Insight, for example, predicts a 2.1% GDP increase for 2012 - even with the preloaded assumptions for inflation and party disloyalty, Obama's got some problems on his hands based on this model.

Even with the continued protracted Republican nomination contest, the reality is that Romney's got the path to victory, and has already begun pivoting toward a general election contest. All things being equal, he's the least controversial person on the Republican side and the biggest pieces of baggage he carries is that he's very rich and once drove on a trip with his dog in a crate on top of his car. This is not good news for Obama at all, and as the clock continues to tick down toward election day, the opportunities to make up the gaps in play here are shrinking.

Comments

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

LOL you even had to create a tag for the purpose. :D

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Moderatorship has its privileges, or something.

ETA: Amusingly enough, I thought I was being funny in making the tag, but it appears someone else beat me to it in my previous post, haha.

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

So, after your championing of Sarah Palin, Rick Perry and now Mittens Romney, famous for firing people and his dog shitting itself in terror, I'm going to not worry about the election until Obama actually starts campaigning. Lies, damn lies and academic models aside.

GOP losing traction with women voters being just one indicator that things are not as rosy for them as portrayed.

[hey-its-michael.livejournal.com]

Be careful, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

That's a pretty bad argument. "Because your other predictions were wrong, this one must also be wrong so I don't even need to think about the evidence!"

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

So if I request it, can we get a tag called "Rick Santorum's frothy mixture"?

[paedraggaidin.livejournal.com]

I second this!

[hey-its-michael.livejournal.com]

Obama may very well be in trouble.

However, I choose not to express an opinion about his reelection chances until mid-summer. People who do otherwise, no matter their political persuasion, are mostly talking out of their ass.

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

True fact: there's a line in Dante's "Inferno" where, in my favorite translation, a devil bends over and "makes a trumpet out of his ass". I can never hear the expression you closed your reply with without thinking of that line.

[meus-ovatio.livejournal.com]

So everything is looking for Obama how it looked for Dubya in 2004.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

Good point. He is even stuck in a quagmire of overseas conflict and military atrocities. It just goes to show that there is really only one political party in the US.

[gunslnger.livejournal.com]

First, this warning about the employment report (http://moneymorning.com/2012/01/06/the-truth-behind-the-u-s-labor-department-employment-report/) is a month out of date, but most of the same caveats should still apply.

Second, Romney's biggest baggage is actually that Mass's healthcare thing is too similar to Obama's. And since most people aren't Federalists anymore, they won't see any distinction.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

Doesn't that rely on people being strict constitutionalists, though? I mean barring constitutional concerns, who cares whether it's federal or state if it's good policy?

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

Were it not for 2004, I would think that Obama would have a tough time ahead of him as an incumbent with low approval rating. However, never underestimate the amount of support a candidate can gain against their opposition. I see Romney as a Republican Kerry for this election. Neither were particularly enthusiastic.

[usekh.livejournal.com]

That at Romney changes his entire political philosophy every time the wind blows a different way(Okay Exageration, but not by that much)

[yes-justice.livejournal.com]

Obama's record of hostility toward the oil industry

Funny that when Sarah battles the oil industry, its seen as a good thing.

Okay, so placing bets?

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Palin's battles were completely different than Obama's. Palin wasn't trying to stop the companies from drilling, merely trying to get a better rate for those who were drilling.

And, for the record, I didn't like what Palin did regarding oil companies.

[blonlc.livejournal.com]

romney used to be so hot (he still is)

[rowsdowerisms.livejournal.com]

Cherry picking your polls I see. http://www.gallup.com/poll/153194/Obama-Job-Approval-Rating-Reaches-Weekend.aspx Gallup has him at 49 over the same time period.
RCP average is at 48. Also intrade has his chances at 60% last time I checked. And Romney who in all likelihood will be the nominee is in fact one of the weakest front runners in history with terrible favorability and likability polling this far into a primary.

I don't really see how this is an uphill battle for Obama, definitely not a cake walk, but very doable and more than that likely.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Not really cherry picking - Gallup has a different methodogy for their daily tracking, which is fine - I didn't use Rasmussen either, in this instance, and they're very good. The point was to contrast the approval with the data in the same polls, to compare like things.

Your other points are somewhat valid, but don't really address the structural problems Obama is facing.

[oslo.livejournal.com]

All things being equal, he's the least controversial person on the Republican side and the biggest pieces of baggage he carries is that he's very rich and once drove on a trip with his dog in a crate on top of his car.

Yeah yeah, I'm sure his previous record as a moderate Republican governor of Massachusetts, "Romneycare," his personal faith, a long line of gaffes regarding his references to his wealth, a long and brutal primary campaign where "not-Romney" has become a shorthand way to describe the success of his competitors, etc., etc., won't count as baggage that he'll have to worry about.

I'm starting to wonder why anyone should take your "analysis" seriously.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

I noted his wealth, but the rest of those are primary problems, not general election problems.

You should take my analysis seriously because it's fact-based, and points to an ever growing pile of evidence that Obama's going to have a long road ahead of him if he's to be re-elected. Or, conversely, you can choose to be surprised on that Wednesday morning in November.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Polls aren't trustworthy until election day. For real.

[hey-its-michael.livejournal.com]

I don't know, they were pretty good in the one to two months leading up to 2008's election. Earlier than that, though, and you are correct.

[politikitty.livejournal.com]

High Negatives mean that people stay home. People staying home favors the incumbent.

Compounding that rule of thumb, marginal Obama supporters hardly outweigh marginal Romney supporters. Considering how lukewarm the primary is heading, I wouldn't exactly expect a solid Republican base to show up on Election Day. I wouldn't be surprised if we dip under 50% voter turnout this year.

The people who are angry about Washington don't have any dog in this fight. The Tea Party people only have the possibility of a brokered convention to get some pittance of a voice. And the OWS folks are even more out there in the cold. While we might have a third party candidate on the right (I could imagine the anti-Romney superPAC funds finding a Perot like candidate), there's no rumblings of a similar candidate on the left. Even though the left is spitting mad at Obama for ignoring the OWS effort.

Polling doesn't matter. It all comes down the the electoral votes and I'm not seeing any strong argument that Romney has any distinct edge in this. The only thing I've found interesting about this election cycle is the remote possibility of a brokered convention. The rest has been typical LJ partisan fighting writ large about how all liberals are judgmental elites and all conservatives are racist plutocrats.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Polling doesn't matter. It all comes down the the electoral votes and I'm not seeing any strong argument that Romney has any distinct edge in this.

See, I see the exact opposite. Try the map out (http://www.270towin.com/), and it becomes fairly hard to find a road to victory for Obama. Obama probably won't win Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or Virginia this cycle. He definitely won't win New Hampshire or Missouri. That puts the GOP total at 261, needing to find 9 more votes out of Florida, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Michigan. I personally think the GOP wins Florida outright, but it's not at all crazy to think the GOP takes some combination of Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. I see a viable road for 326 EVs for the Republicans currently.

[musicpsych.livejournal.com]

Calling it "Obama's Uphill Battle" seems like wishful thinking, or like it's a reality you're trying to create.

Gingrich and Santorum won't win against Obama because they're too niche. Romney has a shot, but he seems very similar to Obama - perhaps similar enough that voters might feel inclined to vote for the incumbent. The more Romney campaigns, the lower his chances of winning are.

[il-mio-gufo.livejournal.com]

I dunno, if I recall correctly, the summer of 2008 was also full of high gas-prices ??? wasn't it?

[politikitty.livejournal.com]

Summers always are.

[meus-ovatio.livejournal.com]

Saying an incumbent or Presidential candidate has an uphill climb is like saying it's hot in the desert.

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

If corporations are people, Mitt Romney is a serial killer. (j/k. ish.)
Mitt's a Mormon. (doesn't get fundie christian vote)
He's a northerner. (doesn't get southern vote)
He's rich and was born rich. (doesn't really get working man)
He drove a trip with his dog in a crate on the top of his car. (loses the PETA vote)
He did Romneycare. (loses the Romneycare=Obamacare voters)
He flip-flopped on abortions (doesn't get abortion voters...ok maybe. they cant imagine Obama will taut a better line)

jus sayin'

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Mitt's a Mormon. (doesn't get fundie christian vote)

In a primary maybe. Not going to be an issue in the general - polling has shown Democrats have a bigger issue with Mormons than fundamentalists.

He's a northerner. (doesn't get southern vote)

The South is solidly Republican. This won't change.

He's rich and was born rich. (doesn't really get working man)

Already covered this, it's a battle between two rich guys anyway.

He drove a trip with his dog in a crate on the top of his car. (loses the PETA vote)

Well, I'm sure he'll miss those 20k urban votes.

He did Romneycare. (loses the Romneycare=Obamacare voters)

See the poll in the OP.

He flip-flopped on abortions (doesn't get abortion voters...ok maybe. they cant imagine Obama will taut a better line)

If you were anti-abortion, who's record would you prefer?

jus sayin'

Yeah. You're sayin' a lot that ignores general election realities.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

yes, clearly, he's so oppressed.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

I look forward to eight years of Rick Santorum. He will make George Jr. seem liberal.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

ask Jeff -- he thinks George Jr WAS a liberal.

[blueduck37.livejournal.com]

I will pray your prediction about Obama losing works out as well as your prediction that the Affordable Care Act wouldn't pass, and that Rick Perry was the GOP's savior.

PS: Yes, Obama is so 'hostile' to the oil industry that domestic oil production has quadrupled during his presidency. That's like a guy saying his parents are hostile because they bought him a Lexus for his 18th bday when he really wanted a Benz.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

I will pray your prediction about Obama losing works out as well as your prediction that the Affordable Care Act wouldn't pass, and that Rick Perry was the GOP's savior.

I'm assuming it will be more like my prediction about the public option not making it into the final bill or Sarah Palin not running for President.

PS: Yes, Obama is so 'hostile' to the oil industry that domestic oil production has quadrupled during his presidency.



In spite of Obama, not because of him.