Vroom Vroom!
5/1/12 12:58![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsSo, last March, I posted about electric vehicles, specifically about by position on the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt. Many of you were correct, however, in that I may have been premature in my evaluations. Among the most relevant data shared was the Volt "selling every one [they could] make" and 20k preorders for the Leaf, and that it was a deliberately slow rollout. The consensus, at least at the time, appeared to be that we needed to have a year under our belt to really get a good grasp on the situation.
So what do we know now in 2012 that we didn't in 2011?
* GM predicted at least 10k Volts sold in 2010, and didn't even come close to that number, missing it by nearly 2400 cars, spurred in part by an allowance to sell the existing demo models. Inexplicably, GM intends to produce 60k of them this year even though demand has not been high. Granted: the Volt only reached nationwide status in the fourth quarter, but that did not seem to show significantly more demand.
* If the Chevy Volt isn't winning over hearts and minds, the Nissan Leaf isn't faring much better. It had higher sales year-long than the Volt, coming in at 9600 sold in the US. The Leaf, however, saw its sales peak over the summer and has mostly seen a precipitous decline from its height.
The issue with electric cars remains the same: they're expensive, they don't go far, and they cost too much to the taxpayer. A Volt costs the taxpayer $250k per vehicle sold on top of the ticket cost to the consumer - no wonder you have to be fairly affluent to drive one. The Volt runs for a whopping 40 miles on electricity (and then another 340 per tank on premium gas), the Leaf a significantly-better-yet-still-sad 110 miles at best, probably closer to 75 - I drove more than that to visit my friend last weekend. With the price tag in the high $20s-low $30s even with tax credits, it's not likely to find many more adopters, etiher - catching only 2% of the market overall isn't much of a splash for an industry with high expectations it set for itself, never mind what the rest of the people who supposedly know what they're doing thought. But, to be fair, even the execs are only thinking 6% market share 13 years from now.
The Jalopnik post above says it best, to me:
The reality is that we will see viable alternative energy vehicles sooner rather than later. I think, given what we know about the electric options available and the options coming down the turnpike, that electric vehicles are not ready for prime time, and perhaps aren't actually the answer at all. I could still be proven wrong on this, but when we sink literally billions of taxpayer dollars into a technology that so few people want or need, it may be time to say "enough is enough" on the electric car experiment. We now know who killed the electric car - the consumer.
So what do we know now in 2012 that we didn't in 2011?
* GM predicted at least 10k Volts sold in 2010, and didn't even come close to that number, missing it by nearly 2400 cars, spurred in part by an allowance to sell the existing demo models. Inexplicably, GM intends to produce 60k of them this year even though demand has not been high. Granted: the Volt only reached nationwide status in the fourth quarter, but that did not seem to show significantly more demand.
* If the Chevy Volt isn't winning over hearts and minds, the Nissan Leaf isn't faring much better. It had higher sales year-long than the Volt, coming in at 9600 sold in the US. The Leaf, however, saw its sales peak over the summer and has mostly seen a precipitous decline from its height.
The issue with electric cars remains the same: they're expensive, they don't go far, and they cost too much to the taxpayer. A Volt costs the taxpayer $250k per vehicle sold on top of the ticket cost to the consumer - no wonder you have to be fairly affluent to drive one. The Volt runs for a whopping 40 miles on electricity (and then another 340 per tank on premium gas), the Leaf a significantly-better-yet-still-sad 110 miles at best, probably closer to 75 - I drove more than that to visit my friend last weekend. With the price tag in the high $20s-low $30s even with tax credits, it's not likely to find many more adopters, etiher - catching only 2% of the market overall isn't much of a splash for an industry with high expectations it set for itself, never mind what the rest of the people who supposedly know what they're doing thought. But, to be fair, even the execs are only thinking 6% market share 13 years from now.
The Jalopnik post above says it best, to me:
I can't look someone in the eye who's about to buy their first car and say, "Look, buy this electric vehicle. It's not very fun. It's not what you want. You can't really haul anything. It's very likely not any better for the environment. But it is very, very quiet. Especially for the hours and hours it takes to charge."
The reality is that we will see viable alternative energy vehicles sooner rather than later. I think, given what we know about the electric options available and the options coming down the turnpike, that electric vehicles are not ready for prime time, and perhaps aren't actually the answer at all. I could still be proven wrong on this, but when we sink literally billions of taxpayer dollars into a technology that so few people want or need, it may be time to say "enough is enough" on the electric car experiment. We now know who killed the electric car - the consumer.
(no subject)
Date: 8/1/12 00:01 (UTC)You seem to be conflating battery chemical type with battery efficiency. You can have a ten year old Li-ion battery and a current Li-ion battery and the current one will give a superior charge. Or don't you think the free market can't improve its products and just sits on its laurels? You even said above that the first Prii didn't perform well at first due to its batteries.
(no subject)
Date: 8/1/12 00:40 (UTC)You know how I know you haven't reviewed battery technology in current hybrids?
They're only on the third generation of battery packs for the US Prius. The current one had very little change since 2004.
Demand isn't driving tech enhancements like you think.
Otherwise, why is the Tesla still expensive as fuck?
(no subject)
Date: 8/1/12 01:11 (UTC)Demand isn't driving tech enhancements like you think.
Why do you think the manufacturers are sitting on their laurels? Every advance they make in battery technology and manufacturing processes reduces their cost for making the previous-gen batteries, and selling more and more of those for more and more Prii subsidizes their R&D for current- and next-gen batteries, for vehicles like the Volt, because they know people will eventually want more power for more efficient cars.
Speaking of the Volt, imagine that, as it relies more on its batteries they use newer more energy-dense technology than the Prius's batteries! And guess what, they cost more! This may be news to you but many people have complained about the Volt's sticker price, and since it uses current-gen batteries, this may explain that.
It's like when people were avoiding buying the then-new DVD and Blu-ray players because the players cost $1,000, and waited until the technology got cheaper before they were widely adopted. Funny how that works.
Otherwise, why is the Tesla still expensive as fuck?
I don't know, why is a Lotus more expensive than a Ford?
(no subject)
Date: 8/1/12 02:47 (UTC)The battery tech in hybrids just ain't what you think it is.
(no subject)
Date: 8/1/12 14:18 (UTC)