Vroom Vroom!

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

So, last March, I posted about electric vehicles, specifically about by position on the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt. Many of you were correct, however, in that I may have been premature in my evaluations. Among the most relevant data shared was the Volt "selling every one [they could] make" and 20k preorders for the Leaf, and that it was a deliberately slow rollout. The consensus, at least at the time, appeared to be that we needed to have a year under our belt to really get a good grasp on the situation.

So what do we know now in 2012 that we didn't in 2011?

* GM predicted at least 10k Volts sold in 2010, and didn't even come close to that number, missing it by nearly 2400 cars, spurred in part by an allowance to sell the existing demo models. Inexplicably, GM intends to produce 60k of them this year even though demand has not been high. Granted: the Volt only reached nationwide status in the fourth quarter, but that did not seem to show significantly more demand.

* If the Chevy Volt isn't winning over hearts and minds, the Nissan Leaf isn't faring much better. It had higher sales year-long than the Volt, coming in at 9600 sold in the US. The Leaf, however, saw its sales peak over the summer and has mostly seen a precipitous decline from its height.

The issue with electric cars remains the same: they're expensive, they don't go far, and they cost too much to the taxpayer. A Volt costs the taxpayer $250k per vehicle sold on top of the ticket cost to the consumer - no wonder you have to be fairly affluent to drive one. The Volt runs for a whopping 40 miles on electricity (and then another 340 per tank on premium gas), the Leaf a significantly-better-yet-still-sad 110 miles at best, probably closer to 75 - I drove more than that to visit my friend last weekend. With the price tag in the high $20s-low $30s even with tax credits, it's not likely to find many more adopters, etiher - catching only 2% of the market overall isn't much of a splash for an industry with high expectations it set for itself, never mind what the rest of the people who supposedly know what they're doing thought. But, to be fair, even the execs are only thinking 6% market share 13 years from now.

The Jalopnik post above says it best, to me:

I can't look someone in the eye who's about to buy their first car and say, "Look, buy this electric vehicle. It's not very fun. It's not what you want. You can't really haul anything. It's very likely not any better for the environment. But it is very, very quiet. Especially for the hours and hours it takes to charge."

The reality is that we will see viable alternative energy vehicles sooner rather than later. I think, given what we know about the electric options available and the options coming down the turnpike, that electric vehicles are not ready for prime time, and perhaps aren't actually the answer at all. I could still be proven wrong on this, but when we sink literally billions of taxpayer dollars into a technology that so few people want or need, it may be time to say "enough is enough" on the electric car experiment. We now know who killed the electric car - the consumer.

Comments

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

We would not have killed it in its crib, the mechanisms were well-understood and if we did not invent it one of the European states would have invented it as a perfect means to invincible reconnaissance: how can your enemy hide if you can see him where he can't shoot you? Instant airplane, USA not needed.

[mrbogey.livejournal.com]

'...the mechanisms were well-understood...'

No they weren't. Prior to the Wright Brothers there was no solid way of controlling the aircraft and most flights crashed immediately upon take-off. The Wright Brothers built one that could be controlled. They subsequently received patents on their designs. Immediately after their invention was made public and was witnessed by several aeroclubs they became celebrities in France (due to the large number of aeronautical enthusiasts there). For the beginning of the air age they were more popular overseas than here.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

That's because the generals overseas realized that they could use them to start spying on their enemies where their enemies could never reciprocate. All that development by Mordor and the Legion of Doom-er government in World War I turned air power into a modern, feasible means of transportation and travel technology. But I'm sure in the analysis of enlightened historical scholars adhering to Bizarro-Stalinism that all this is just a bunch of lies by media and that the Party-er Private Sector invented everything and government just plain lied.

[mrbogey.livejournal.com]

Clearly you're unfamiliar with the French Aeronautical club and their role in developing the airplane industry.

Let me guess, all those bored noblemen who wanted to fly were secretly spies for the French, German, and British gov't.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Not at all, but you're equally neglecting the existence of airships and their rivalry with airplanes at the time (meaning that the principles of powered flight were already known at the time), as well as plenty of examples where technological development and economic development are simply impossible to accomplish via the private sector. For instance would the private sector have developed space travel in its manned and umanned varieties? No. The cost was far too prohibitive at the start. A good CEO would never waste his money thus. Did the good state of Tennessee even bother to handle the East Tennessee region developed by the government and still maintained by aid to people who in your view of the world don't exist and are lies of the International Media Conspiracy persecuting the White Christan Male-the Tennessee Valley Authority? Never. Did the private sector provide canals, railroads, the telegraph, establish telephone lines, build interstates? No, and it never had a reason to do any of this for the cost in all these far outweighs profit margins and would never provide a return in any time to be worth it.

Here also I give you a chance for a last word telling me how stupid I am, how awesome you are, and how if I'd just admit you're right on everything life would be so much simpler. It's a fruitless exercise otherwise to struggle for an honest debate when the argument consists of my facts and specific examples and the other side's "I'm sorry you're an illiterate idiot."