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talkpoliticsThe distance between Anatolia and Brussels may be just some 2500 km, but the Turkish society has found this road extremely long and difficult. And though it's been striding along that road for more than half a century, the old goal still remains as distant and unattainable as it was half a century ago. Today, Turkey feels itself as kept apart from the dreamed promised lands of mythical Europe as ever.
Decades after the father of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk swept the fading Ottoman empire with the big broom and brought a storm of pro-western social and cultural reforms, in the distant 1959 Turkey ventured to knock at the European door for the first time. But soon after that the Turko-European relations got stuck in the swamp of vain diplomacy. The truth was that Europe had never wanted to be ready for Turkey and Turkey was definitely not ready for Europe. The main stated reason was the controversial development of the democratic process in the country, which was marred by military coups, martial law and unprecedented economic collapses.
Turkey's specific past and the piled historical prejudices are making the Turkish diplomacy particularly sensitive to Western criticism, and it makes the ruling elites in the country feel unwanted in "civilised" Europe. It's clear for everybody that the integration of a poor, populous, Muslim country, would pose an extraordinary challenge to the union. The atmosphere was being additionally heated by the pathos-filled speeches of leading conservative politicians in the West like Merkel and Sarkozy, and some right-wing xenophobes and outright populists like Le Pen and Wilders.
Despite all that, in 2005 a new page was opened in the Turko-European relations. After a series of dramatic consultations between the EU members, the union kept its promise after all, and it announced its readiness to initiate talks with Turkey.
But it was already too late for that. The skeptical moods in the West during the recent years have sent a clear signal to Turkey that Europe is far from the coveted heavenly garden from the legends that it had looked like in the past. Probably because Turkey itself had ceased being so poor, and neither was it a predominantly agricultural society any more, effectively ruled by its military. Now it's a dynamic nation with a strong sense for a civic consciousness. And it's a fact that Turkey has flung off its role of the constant beggar who's sitting at the gates of Europe, and has changed its approach drastically. Now Turkey is trying to assert a very different role for itself, neither part of the West nor exactly of the East, but a balancing factor, a gateway between the two worlds, a player who cannot be bypassed by anybody any more. It's a bolder, and riskier position, but one that could bring them a lot of benefits. Because Turkey is now becoming an active player in the region, rather than a tool that others could toss around and use at their convenience.
Recep Erdoğan has said many times that it's exactly the strength of his country that's probably the main obstacle to its acceptance in the EU. And not just military and political might, we're talking of economic power first and foremost. With its remarkable GDP growth (which reached 9% last year), the Turkish economy is the fastest growing within 5000 miles. Nothing in Europe even remotely compares to that. The OSCE data suggests that at the current rate, by the middle of the century, Turkey will be the second largest economy in Europe right after Germany, and this can't help but frighten Brussels. The country's growing influence is additionally fueled by its presence in G-20, the group of the "young economic tigers".
As a hypothetical EU member though, Turkey would not only be the 17th biggest economy in the world, with a tendency of climbing further up that ladder, but would potentially boost the dynamics of the united market on the Old Continent. Not to mention its significance as a regional and global power. And its geostrategic position at the edge between Europe and Asia would be very welcome for stagnating Europe. Not only does Turkey stand in the middle of the old Silk Road (in all its aspects), connecting the West with the Middle and Far East, but it's also the dividing line between the Christian world and the Muslim one. Bonus points for the relatively distinct division between state and religion, which we could say is a unparalleled luxury in the Muslim world.
But that's far from being all we could say. With its network of gas and oil routes, Turkey is quickly turning into a top strategic partner at a time when energy security will be of primary importance for the world order. Turkey is capable of curbing the growing dependence of most EU members to the Russian oil deposits, in case Moscow decides to abuse its power levers and try to twist some arms from its position of energy power, like it did during the last two winters with Ukraine. We shouldn't under-estimate the fact that Turkey has the second largest military within NATO, and if need be, it could mobilise 200K military personnel overnight. In other words, Turkey is boasting with energy, the energy that Europe is severely lacking and is badly needing in the conditions of a protracted and deteriorating crisis.
But every story has a dark side, too. The integration process is hardly going smoothly. 18 of the 22 chapters of the pre-admission agreement are presently being blocked and discussions are ongoing for a myriad of reasons. And that's not a coincidence.
Despite its remarkable progress in the recent decade, most of the important issues that would determine Turkey's relations with EU remain unsolved. One of these undoubtedly is the Cypriot problem. Although the opposition is accusing Erdoğan of going too far with his concessions on this issue, most EU members believe Turkey is lagging too much with solving the Cypriot problem, and the presence of Turkish troops in Northern Cyprus is in stark contrast with the principles of European integration.
Another delicate question is the Armenian genocide during WW1. It has failed to reach a final conclusion, and that stems from the moods that exist within the Turkish society. Despite the pressure from the European public, at this point all intellectuals and historians who dare to state an opinion different from the officially established political line, are threatened with imprisonment, abduction, beatings, or social stigma, and are being labeled national traitors.
But the biggest danger for Turkey's membership aspirations comes from a potential renewal of the violence in the south-eastern part of the country. Nothing annoys Ankara as much as the permanent European interest in the state of the 15 million Kurds around Diyarbakır. If they really want Brussels to stop poking its nose into the state's eternal affairs, the Turkish government should take real measures for solving the deep social and economic problems of those neglected areas, and curb the Kurdish separatist aspirations by winning hearts and minds, rather than using force.
And despite the frequent EU reports about the ceaseless Turkish progress ever since its 2005 membership application, and the realisation that Turkey now really has a functioning market economy, Brussels keeps pressing and insisting for urgent reform in a number of other sectors. It's necessary to accelerate the fight against corruption, to achieve transparency in the financing of political parties, and to guarantee the independent status of the judicial system. A particular concern for Europe comes from the state of human rights in Turkey, because almost no progress is observed in the attitude to women, in the freedom of religion, etc. Which in turn keeps the Turkish society kind of like in the Middle Ages in the eyes of the West.
The shy steps along the slippery road to democracy are capable of additionally extinguishing the otherwise languishing embers of the Turko-European relations, and potentially sending this relationship into an Ice Age. And while Turkey keeps accusing Europe in discrimination and double standard, and is starting to fuss around ever more demonstratively, the European countries, now suffering from record unemployment and economic stagnation, are openly concerned that the cheap labour force from 70-million, lower-standard Turkey, would further push them to the brink of poverty. And if back in 2005 it looked as if the membership negotiations could protract for a whole decade, now technically they look more like a mere formality - a thing no one really dares to admit loudly. Because today, Turkey's EU membership looks as distant a chimera as it used to be 50 years ago, if for seemingly different reasons.
Decades after the father of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk swept the fading Ottoman empire with the big broom and brought a storm of pro-western social and cultural reforms, in the distant 1959 Turkey ventured to knock at the European door for the first time. But soon after that the Turko-European relations got stuck in the swamp of vain diplomacy. The truth was that Europe had never wanted to be ready for Turkey and Turkey was definitely not ready for Europe. The main stated reason was the controversial development of the democratic process in the country, which was marred by military coups, martial law and unprecedented economic collapses.
Turkey's specific past and the piled historical prejudices are making the Turkish diplomacy particularly sensitive to Western criticism, and it makes the ruling elites in the country feel unwanted in "civilised" Europe. It's clear for everybody that the integration of a poor, populous, Muslim country, would pose an extraordinary challenge to the union. The atmosphere was being additionally heated by the pathos-filled speeches of leading conservative politicians in the West like Merkel and Sarkozy, and some right-wing xenophobes and outright populists like Le Pen and Wilders.
Despite all that, in 2005 a new page was opened in the Turko-European relations. After a series of dramatic consultations between the EU members, the union kept its promise after all, and it announced its readiness to initiate talks with Turkey.
But it was already too late for that. The skeptical moods in the West during the recent years have sent a clear signal to Turkey that Europe is far from the coveted heavenly garden from the legends that it had looked like in the past. Probably because Turkey itself had ceased being so poor, and neither was it a predominantly agricultural society any more, effectively ruled by its military. Now it's a dynamic nation with a strong sense for a civic consciousness. And it's a fact that Turkey has flung off its role of the constant beggar who's sitting at the gates of Europe, and has changed its approach drastically. Now Turkey is trying to assert a very different role for itself, neither part of the West nor exactly of the East, but a balancing factor, a gateway between the two worlds, a player who cannot be bypassed by anybody any more. It's a bolder, and riskier position, but one that could bring them a lot of benefits. Because Turkey is now becoming an active player in the region, rather than a tool that others could toss around and use at their convenience.
Recep Erdoğan has said many times that it's exactly the strength of his country that's probably the main obstacle to its acceptance in the EU. And not just military and political might, we're talking of economic power first and foremost. With its remarkable GDP growth (which reached 9% last year), the Turkish economy is the fastest growing within 5000 miles. Nothing in Europe even remotely compares to that. The OSCE data suggests that at the current rate, by the middle of the century, Turkey will be the second largest economy in Europe right after Germany, and this can't help but frighten Brussels. The country's growing influence is additionally fueled by its presence in G-20, the group of the "young economic tigers".
As a hypothetical EU member though, Turkey would not only be the 17th biggest economy in the world, with a tendency of climbing further up that ladder, but would potentially boost the dynamics of the united market on the Old Continent. Not to mention its significance as a regional and global power. And its geostrategic position at the edge between Europe and Asia would be very welcome for stagnating Europe. Not only does Turkey stand in the middle of the old Silk Road (in all its aspects), connecting the West with the Middle and Far East, but it's also the dividing line between the Christian world and the Muslim one. Bonus points for the relatively distinct division between state and religion, which we could say is a unparalleled luxury in the Muslim world.
But that's far from being all we could say. With its network of gas and oil routes, Turkey is quickly turning into a top strategic partner at a time when energy security will be of primary importance for the world order. Turkey is capable of curbing the growing dependence of most EU members to the Russian oil deposits, in case Moscow decides to abuse its power levers and try to twist some arms from its position of energy power, like it did during the last two winters with Ukraine. We shouldn't under-estimate the fact that Turkey has the second largest military within NATO, and if need be, it could mobilise 200K military personnel overnight. In other words, Turkey is boasting with energy, the energy that Europe is severely lacking and is badly needing in the conditions of a protracted and deteriorating crisis.
But every story has a dark side, too. The integration process is hardly going smoothly. 18 of the 22 chapters of the pre-admission agreement are presently being blocked and discussions are ongoing for a myriad of reasons. And that's not a coincidence.
Despite its remarkable progress in the recent decade, most of the important issues that would determine Turkey's relations with EU remain unsolved. One of these undoubtedly is the Cypriot problem. Although the opposition is accusing Erdoğan of going too far with his concessions on this issue, most EU members believe Turkey is lagging too much with solving the Cypriot problem, and the presence of Turkish troops in Northern Cyprus is in stark contrast with the principles of European integration.
Another delicate question is the Armenian genocide during WW1. It has failed to reach a final conclusion, and that stems from the moods that exist within the Turkish society. Despite the pressure from the European public, at this point all intellectuals and historians who dare to state an opinion different from the officially established political line, are threatened with imprisonment, abduction, beatings, or social stigma, and are being labeled national traitors.
But the biggest danger for Turkey's membership aspirations comes from a potential renewal of the violence in the south-eastern part of the country. Nothing annoys Ankara as much as the permanent European interest in the state of the 15 million Kurds around Diyarbakır. If they really want Brussels to stop poking its nose into the state's eternal affairs, the Turkish government should take real measures for solving the deep social and economic problems of those neglected areas, and curb the Kurdish separatist aspirations by winning hearts and minds, rather than using force.
And despite the frequent EU reports about the ceaseless Turkish progress ever since its 2005 membership application, and the realisation that Turkey now really has a functioning market economy, Brussels keeps pressing and insisting for urgent reform in a number of other sectors. It's necessary to accelerate the fight against corruption, to achieve transparency in the financing of political parties, and to guarantee the independent status of the judicial system. A particular concern for Europe comes from the state of human rights in Turkey, because almost no progress is observed in the attitude to women, in the freedom of religion, etc. Which in turn keeps the Turkish society kind of like in the Middle Ages in the eyes of the West.
The shy steps along the slippery road to democracy are capable of additionally extinguishing the otherwise languishing embers of the Turko-European relations, and potentially sending this relationship into an Ice Age. And while Turkey keeps accusing Europe in discrimination and double standard, and is starting to fuss around ever more demonstratively, the European countries, now suffering from record unemployment and economic stagnation, are openly concerned that the cheap labour force from 70-million, lower-standard Turkey, would further push them to the brink of poverty. And if back in 2005 it looked as if the membership negotiations could protract for a whole decade, now technically they look more like a mere formality - a thing no one really dares to admit loudly. Because today, Turkey's EU membership looks as distant a chimera as it used to be 50 years ago, if for seemingly different reasons.
Bullshit:
Date: 14/12/11 22:30 (UTC)The only, and I mean this, only reason to admit a country like Greece or Romania and leave out Turkey on the grounds stated is that Greece and Romania are Christian, Turkey's Muslim. That's it. It's not dictatorship, it's not human rights abuses, it's that Turkey's a bunch of Muslims in a continent that likes scapegoating Muslims for the weakness and failures of its elected government because the continent killed off almost all its Jews and thus doesn't have many to go after anymore.
Letting in Christian countries that are economic basket cases like Romania, perfectly fine. Turkey, which is nothing of the sort? EU society would go to Hell in a handbasket. That kind of double-standards, frankly, is what I expect from the Tea Party and OWS here.
Re: Bullshit:
Date: 14/12/11 22:37 (UTC)Even if Turkey managed to meet these shifting goalposts, European states will just invent new demands they also don't adhere to themselves in order to keep out scary Muslim states, as opposed to cheap Muslim Gastarbeiter.
Re: Bullshit:
Date: 14/12/11 22:46 (UTC)Re: Bullshit:
Date: 14/12/11 23:01 (UTC)Re: Bullshit:
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Date: 14/12/11 23:17 (UTC)Integration, baby!
Re: Bullshit:
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Date: 14/12/11 22:59 (UTC)Good luck with that.
How about Islamist fundamentalist influence also withdrawing from Bosnia and Kosovo? It's not like those Wahhabis are not popping up madrassa schools all around the Dinar mountains.
Re: Bullshit:
Date: 14/12/11 23:02 (UTC)Re: Bullshit:
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Date: 14/12/11 22:48 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 15/12/11 00:13 (UTC)Oh wait....
(no subject)
Date: 15/12/11 16:33 (UTC)They have a fantastic industry and are growing as a mass exporter, including many manufacturing partnerships with Germany, so they can't be ignored forever.