A slap across Putin's face
5/12/11 14:15![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsAfter more than a decade of huge popularity, Putin's party United Russia is probably going to lose its absolute majority in the Russian Duma. With most polls reporting, it's now obvious that the voters used the elections to express their, to use such an understatement, "dissatisfaction" with the authoritarianism and corruption that's pervading all corners of social life in Russia. There were lots of complaints about vote rigging and using all sorts of dirty tricks to distort the results: ballots being filled before the vote had even started, using fading ink, several entries in the ballot room by the same persons, etc etc. But all of these incidents couldn't conceal the fact that the ruling party is losing popularity at a staggering speed.
If we're to talk about Putin's "decreasing" popularity, what should we say about his party United Russia? Its popularity is virtually plummeting. It's as if the Russian voters, despite the many voices calling for boycotting the elections, have awoken from a long nap or something. So far Putin hasn't faced any serious rivals - indeed, there's no single figure on the Russian political scene that you could point at and declare a viable alternative to him. It seems his only rival is the general fatigue in the populace with the semi-authoritarian system that he has created. Even those who've consistently praised his reign as a period of stabilisation (both economical and political), at least during his first 2 terms, are now feeling increasingly fed up with the prospect of seeing his mug for another two terms. And the presidential election is knocking at the door - it's next March. So far he may seem invincible, but that's both too short a time and long enough for things to change significantly.
"A slap across the face of United Russia" was the most frequent sentiment around the media; "Pyrrhic victory" was the verdict of the blogosphere after the election results became clear. It's no news that Russia could hardly be called a real "democracy". Sure, they've got regular elections, but many things in the Russian political system look made up and distorted: from the constant pressure on the political opposition and intimidating any voices of dissent, the servile attitude of the mainstream press to Putin and his clique. Whatever the flaws of Russian democracy, though, it was still alive enough to give this slap across the face of Putin's party, which has now lost its total control on the Duma.
Whatever the final result of this election, it's evident that there'll be a very different political atmosphere in Russia from now on. Even though we'll be seeing the same old faces in Kremlin. I have no doubts that Putin will still easily win the presidential election in March, but how much this will be because of his real popularity, and how much will be due to his control on the media and the lack of a viable alternative, really depends on who you're asking.
Although everyone knew too well that he was intending to come back in Kremlin, the act itself of confirming this intention caused more disgust and disappointment than praise - we've all heard about the booing he received on several occasions by audiences that were supposed to applaud him. The general mood looks to be evolving from political apathy and silent approval to the regime, to apathy + silent disapproval. How much time will be needed for that to shift to real loud dissent, is yet to be seen. But that now seems like a process that's gaining momentum, and it'll have enough time to unfold in the next years.
So, what looked impossible just a few months ago, is now a fact - the ruling party has got less than 50% of the vote, while the Communists got about 20% - almost twice more than last time. Despite the economic development, many Russians feel marginalised and disenfranchised, and they've turned to outright nostalgia for the communist past.
A while back, anything below the 64% that United Russia got back in 2007, would be considered a big fail. Putin relied on a full control over government and the state bureaucracy, and he was hoping to build upon that to strengthen his grip on power even more. But now his invincible aura is seriously shaken, and that could give his opponents the sense of opportunity to push even more and sting him where it hurts most. And it's not like there aren't some strong opposition parties gaining momentum: the Communists have always been a factor, the nationalists of Zhirinovski are already very experienced and well organised, and the Liberals are gaining popularity among the emerging middle class. So United Russia will probably have to consider establishing some functioning relationships with some of these players, if they don't want to be under a constant siege in parliament for the next few years. And that means compromise, something unheard of until now.
This election wasn't just a referendum about United Russia, it was a popularity vote for Putin himself, and he'll surely be drawing his conclusions before the presidential vote. No doubt this result is a painful blow on his ambitions to be the eternal ruler of Mother Russia who'd be loved/feared by everybody.
Of course, Medvedev (who earlier this year put his tail between his legs and relinquished the leader's post, exactly as planned), tried to interpret the result in a favourable way. He said the election results are proving that there's "real democracy in Russia", and they correctly reflect the current moods in the country and the realistic ratio between the various political powers. But what else could've he said? Putin was similarly jubilant: "Despite the enormous responsibilities that rest on our shoulders, our party has preserved its dominant role in Russian politics". Well, not so fast. We'll see to that a bit later. If anything, Russian politics could get a tad more interesting in the next few years, which is good, because for a time it was looking like the most boring thing one could possibly imagine.
If we're to talk about Putin's "decreasing" popularity, what should we say about his party United Russia? Its popularity is virtually plummeting. It's as if the Russian voters, despite the many voices calling for boycotting the elections, have awoken from a long nap or something. So far Putin hasn't faced any serious rivals - indeed, there's no single figure on the Russian political scene that you could point at and declare a viable alternative to him. It seems his only rival is the general fatigue in the populace with the semi-authoritarian system that he has created. Even those who've consistently praised his reign as a period of stabilisation (both economical and political), at least during his first 2 terms, are now feeling increasingly fed up with the prospect of seeing his mug for another two terms. And the presidential election is knocking at the door - it's next March. So far he may seem invincible, but that's both too short a time and long enough for things to change significantly.
"A slap across the face of United Russia" was the most frequent sentiment around the media; "Pyrrhic victory" was the verdict of the blogosphere after the election results became clear. It's no news that Russia could hardly be called a real "democracy". Sure, they've got regular elections, but many things in the Russian political system look made up and distorted: from the constant pressure on the political opposition and intimidating any voices of dissent, the servile attitude of the mainstream press to Putin and his clique. Whatever the flaws of Russian democracy, though, it was still alive enough to give this slap across the face of Putin's party, which has now lost its total control on the Duma.
Whatever the final result of this election, it's evident that there'll be a very different political atmosphere in Russia from now on. Even though we'll be seeing the same old faces in Kremlin. I have no doubts that Putin will still easily win the presidential election in March, but how much this will be because of his real popularity, and how much will be due to his control on the media and the lack of a viable alternative, really depends on who you're asking.
Although everyone knew too well that he was intending to come back in Kremlin, the act itself of confirming this intention caused more disgust and disappointment than praise - we've all heard about the booing he received on several occasions by audiences that were supposed to applaud him. The general mood looks to be evolving from political apathy and silent approval to the regime, to apathy + silent disapproval. How much time will be needed for that to shift to real loud dissent, is yet to be seen. But that now seems like a process that's gaining momentum, and it'll have enough time to unfold in the next years.
So, what looked impossible just a few months ago, is now a fact - the ruling party has got less than 50% of the vote, while the Communists got about 20% - almost twice more than last time. Despite the economic development, many Russians feel marginalised and disenfranchised, and they've turned to outright nostalgia for the communist past.
A while back, anything below the 64% that United Russia got back in 2007, would be considered a big fail. Putin relied on a full control over government and the state bureaucracy, and he was hoping to build upon that to strengthen his grip on power even more. But now his invincible aura is seriously shaken, and that could give his opponents the sense of opportunity to push even more and sting him where it hurts most. And it's not like there aren't some strong opposition parties gaining momentum: the Communists have always been a factor, the nationalists of Zhirinovski are already very experienced and well organised, and the Liberals are gaining popularity among the emerging middle class. So United Russia will probably have to consider establishing some functioning relationships with some of these players, if they don't want to be under a constant siege in parliament for the next few years. And that means compromise, something unheard of until now.
This election wasn't just a referendum about United Russia, it was a popularity vote for Putin himself, and he'll surely be drawing his conclusions before the presidential vote. No doubt this result is a painful blow on his ambitions to be the eternal ruler of Mother Russia who'd be loved/feared by everybody.
Of course, Medvedev (who earlier this year put his tail between his legs and relinquished the leader's post, exactly as planned), tried to interpret the result in a favourable way. He said the election results are proving that there's "real democracy in Russia", and they correctly reflect the current moods in the country and the realistic ratio between the various political powers. But what else could've he said? Putin was similarly jubilant: "Despite the enormous responsibilities that rest on our shoulders, our party has preserved its dominant role in Russian politics". Well, not so fast. We'll see to that a bit later. If anything, Russian politics could get a tad more interesting in the next few years, which is good, because for a time it was looking like the most boring thing one could possibly imagine.
(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 12:53 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 13:02 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 15:34 (UTC)Actually United Russia is not the classical type of "party". It's a non-ideological machine for creating and consuming power. Very similar to ANC here.
(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 15:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 15:48 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 18:04 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 18:08 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 18:22 (UTC)Putin is still by far the most popular politician in Russia, let's not have second thoughts about that. But this result may be the precursor to a politically more unstable system than he might be used to. He's still lucky because there's no alternative on the horizon, but that probably won't go on forever.
The other interesting moment is the oligarchic structure of Putin's cronies, former KGB spies, new billionaire oligarchs that he handpicked to replace Yeltsin's clique, etc. These must be shaking in their boots right now.
Putin may not be losing his grip on power that much just yet, but he must be certainly aware that he's losing the people.
(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 20:12 (UTC)"I need a different ballot."
"Oh did you make a mistake?"
"No this one is crap."
"Huh?"
"I need more choices."
(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 20:25 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/12/11 21:18 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/12/11 20:04 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/12/11 20:24 (UTC)Must admit I didn't see this huge wave of dissent coming, at least not so soon. I guess there are many things I still don't understand about the Russian psyche.
(no subject)
Date: 6/12/11 21:02 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/12/11 21:12 (UTC)Reminds me of a funny bet we had with Mahnmut, where I was predicting that Assad would fall before Bouteflika. Well he hasn't fallen yet, but he seems on his way so I might be about to win that bet (a few beers are at stake, sorry if this might sound too cynical as thousands of people are dying while we're making silly bets, dammit). In his turn, Mahnmut made a rather pessimistic prediction that the democracy we were all cheering about won't come anytime soon to Egypt, and he's about to get that thing right, given the current developments there...
Predictions are a tricky thing, and probably no one notices that you get most of them wrong, but when you get something right you're suddenly a genius. Whereas it could very well all be a Russian roulette, pun intended ;)
(no subject)
Date: 7/12/11 06:27 (UTC)