The Brazilian jaguar
19/11/11 16:39![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsHaving passed through the various phases of colonial rule, military dictatorship and tyranny, and having ultimately reached the model of republican federalist democracy, the by-far largest country in Latin America has endured a lot of hardships during its two century long independent history. The country known as the mother of carnaval, futbol, and exotic dances and hot blooded girls, is now revealing itself as an enigmatic society that is yet to leave its deep mark on the global system of international relationships.
When a couple of years ago the Brazilian government officially vowed to overtake a number of leading world economies in the near future and become the fifth biggest economic power in the world, the ambitions of president Lula made some people smirk and mock Brazil for being "eternally going toward the future" and never getting there. But now as we look back through this short time, it is not too difficult to trace the enormous economic and social progress that was achieved under the leadership of the Workers Party during the last decade. Everything suggests that Brazil is confidently looking to the future.
Just for some context, let us compare with the 70s when censorship was everywhere, and bad discipline crippled the military, and there was mass torturing of political prisoners. In the mid 80s another problem was added, a deep economical crisis: uncontrolled inflation, collapse of the financial system, etc... This was the starting point from where Brazil had to climb the long and rocky road to achieving a political and economic stability that would guarantee the transition to a more democratic society.
Today, less than two decades later, the Brazilian economy makes up for 2/5 of the GDP of the entire Latin American continent, and IMF and WB data suggests that Brazil is now the eighth most powerful economy on the planet. And that is not all. The Latin American economic predator, jaguar rather than tiger in this case, does not stop there. If at the moment the country is fifth by territory and population, the plan is to become fifth by economy size by 2026, with a GDP of 6 trillion USD.
Most forecasts say that by then China, which currently has just about 1/3 of the US GDP, would have already become first in the list of economic superpowers, and the 3rd and 4th place would be for Japan and India. The Brazilian ambitions to get into the top-5 group look fairly realistic, given the severe financial and economic crisis in Europe and the tiny growth of those economies. With a 2.1 trillion GDP, Brazil is already approaching the traditionally stable European economic powers like Germany, Britain, France (and I hesitate to add Italy). It is a matter of time when Brazil will start overtaking them, while they are still pondering what they should do with Greece, and while the very future of the Euro is hanging in the balance.
Brazil easily registered a 7% growth for 2010, which is the country's best achievement for the last 25 years. And to put additional pressure on its European counterparts, the Brazilian economic growth continues to show a good, if slower tempo even this year, and the government categorically rejects the idea of buying European state bonds to help Europe tame its crisis.
It is true that Brazil has vast human, water and mineral resources, including the recently found enormous oil deposits. But meanwhile it is also true that for the decade of economic stability and growth under Lula's rule, the Brazilian giant really rose to its feet socially, a 1/6 of the nearly 200 million Brazilians coming out of poverty. A vibrant middle class is being formed, enjoying increased purchasing power and investing in their well-being.
The program that the Workers Party followed during all this time was directed at the people and their prosperity, not just into developing big business. Brazil somehow managed to combine economic growth with a skillful distribution of its wealth and the rise of its middle class is now bearing fruit, stimulating the economy and making the wheel turn. And though the average income of the Brazilian household may be still far from that of the European and especially the American one, this quiet revolution has alleviated the situation of vast numbers of people, which ultimately restored the self-confidence of the Brazilian society as a whole.
Brazil is being given many names these days. The world's granary, the Latin American jaguar, the green giant... Also the future oil power and the land of the rising corporations. Not only does Brazil keep an eye on inflation, foreign debt and the budget deficit, but it is practically a monopolist on the global trade of the most popular item in the world: coffee. And the economic perspectives keep broadening. Four years ago a vast oil deposit was found near São Paulo. Its value is estimated at 8 billion barrels.
All of this has launched Brazil at the leading spots in the world oil trade. The projects on the oil fields will be completed very soon, and the Brazilian national oil company Petrobras is already a global giant with a 70 billion USD capital. Meanwhile the Brazilian multi-national companies are gaining more solid positions at the markets. The first global-scale producer of iron ore is the Brazilian corporation Vale, and the third biggest aircraft builder in the world is Embraer. Tourism is also an extremely important part of the economy. More than 4 million foreign tourists come to spend their money on the exotic beaches along the marvelous Atlantic coast, or to blow their minds at the extravagant Rio carnaval.
Let's not forget also that Brazil is the world's third biggest exporter of agricultural products after the US and the EU, and the 10th largest energy consumer. Many analysts believe that, by constantly expanding its presence at the international financial markets, Brazil has a potential to be among the several fastest developing economies in the world - the BRICS group (along with Russia, India, China and South Africa). The prospects are that if Brazil keeps the same direction, by the middle of the century it could reach the living standard the European countries had around 2005.
But all this headlong development goes along with a full package of problems. Among them is the emergence of a whole new generation of oligarchs, who will very soon start calling the shots in Brazil. And this is not all... Apart from corruption and sprawling bureaucracy, the lack of a solid infrastructure is one of the main obstacles to the development of this enormous country (8.5 million sq km). Large portions of the Amazon jungles remain inaccessible. There are hundreds of isolated tribes still remaining cut from civilisation and living in the stone age. The government is already working on a program for accelerated development, which includes the renovation of the entire national infrastructure, and the funds are almost 300 billion USD.
Apart from highways and airports, this astronomical amount will be invested in more than 100 projects, including the construction of new sports facilities that should meet the next challenge in front of Brazil - hosting the long awaited football World Cup in 2014 and the summer Olympics in 2016. Then the world will have a chance to catch a glimpse of the multi-sided nature and culture of this exotic Brazilian miracle, and check how far it has advanced.
When a couple of years ago the Brazilian government officially vowed to overtake a number of leading world economies in the near future and become the fifth biggest economic power in the world, the ambitions of president Lula made some people smirk and mock Brazil for being "eternally going toward the future" and never getting there. But now as we look back through this short time, it is not too difficult to trace the enormous economic and social progress that was achieved under the leadership of the Workers Party during the last decade. Everything suggests that Brazil is confidently looking to the future.
Just for some context, let us compare with the 70s when censorship was everywhere, and bad discipline crippled the military, and there was mass torturing of political prisoners. In the mid 80s another problem was added, a deep economical crisis: uncontrolled inflation, collapse of the financial system, etc... This was the starting point from where Brazil had to climb the long and rocky road to achieving a political and economic stability that would guarantee the transition to a more democratic society.
Today, less than two decades later, the Brazilian economy makes up for 2/5 of the GDP of the entire Latin American continent, and IMF and WB data suggests that Brazil is now the eighth most powerful economy on the planet. And that is not all. The Latin American economic predator, jaguar rather than tiger in this case, does not stop there. If at the moment the country is fifth by territory and population, the plan is to become fifth by economy size by 2026, with a GDP of 6 trillion USD.
Most forecasts say that by then China, which currently has just about 1/3 of the US GDP, would have already become first in the list of economic superpowers, and the 3rd and 4th place would be for Japan and India. The Brazilian ambitions to get into the top-5 group look fairly realistic, given the severe financial and economic crisis in Europe and the tiny growth of those economies. With a 2.1 trillion GDP, Brazil is already approaching the traditionally stable European economic powers like Germany, Britain, France (and I hesitate to add Italy). It is a matter of time when Brazil will start overtaking them, while they are still pondering what they should do with Greece, and while the very future of the Euro is hanging in the balance.
Brazil easily registered a 7% growth for 2010, which is the country's best achievement for the last 25 years. And to put additional pressure on its European counterparts, the Brazilian economic growth continues to show a good, if slower tempo even this year, and the government categorically rejects the idea of buying European state bonds to help Europe tame its crisis.
It is true that Brazil has vast human, water and mineral resources, including the recently found enormous oil deposits. But meanwhile it is also true that for the decade of economic stability and growth under Lula's rule, the Brazilian giant really rose to its feet socially, a 1/6 of the nearly 200 million Brazilians coming out of poverty. A vibrant middle class is being formed, enjoying increased purchasing power and investing in their well-being.
The program that the Workers Party followed during all this time was directed at the people and their prosperity, not just into developing big business. Brazil somehow managed to combine economic growth with a skillful distribution of its wealth and the rise of its middle class is now bearing fruit, stimulating the economy and making the wheel turn. And though the average income of the Brazilian household may be still far from that of the European and especially the American one, this quiet revolution has alleviated the situation of vast numbers of people, which ultimately restored the self-confidence of the Brazilian society as a whole.
Brazil is being given many names these days. The world's granary, the Latin American jaguar, the green giant... Also the future oil power and the land of the rising corporations. Not only does Brazil keep an eye on inflation, foreign debt and the budget deficit, but it is practically a monopolist on the global trade of the most popular item in the world: coffee. And the economic perspectives keep broadening. Four years ago a vast oil deposit was found near São Paulo. Its value is estimated at 8 billion barrels.
All of this has launched Brazil at the leading spots in the world oil trade. The projects on the oil fields will be completed very soon, and the Brazilian national oil company Petrobras is already a global giant with a 70 billion USD capital. Meanwhile the Brazilian multi-national companies are gaining more solid positions at the markets. The first global-scale producer of iron ore is the Brazilian corporation Vale, and the third biggest aircraft builder in the world is Embraer. Tourism is also an extremely important part of the economy. More than 4 million foreign tourists come to spend their money on the exotic beaches along the marvelous Atlantic coast, or to blow their minds at the extravagant Rio carnaval.
Let's not forget also that Brazil is the world's third biggest exporter of agricultural products after the US and the EU, and the 10th largest energy consumer. Many analysts believe that, by constantly expanding its presence at the international financial markets, Brazil has a potential to be among the several fastest developing economies in the world - the BRICS group (along with Russia, India, China and South Africa). The prospects are that if Brazil keeps the same direction, by the middle of the century it could reach the living standard the European countries had around 2005.
But all this headlong development goes along with a full package of problems. Among them is the emergence of a whole new generation of oligarchs, who will very soon start calling the shots in Brazil. And this is not all... Apart from corruption and sprawling bureaucracy, the lack of a solid infrastructure is one of the main obstacles to the development of this enormous country (8.5 million sq km). Large portions of the Amazon jungles remain inaccessible. There are hundreds of isolated tribes still remaining cut from civilisation and living in the stone age. The government is already working on a program for accelerated development, which includes the renovation of the entire national infrastructure, and the funds are almost 300 billion USD.
Apart from highways and airports, this astronomical amount will be invested in more than 100 projects, including the construction of new sports facilities that should meet the next challenge in front of Brazil - hosting the long awaited football World Cup in 2014 and the summer Olympics in 2016. Then the world will have a chance to catch a glimpse of the multi-sided nature and culture of this exotic Brazilian miracle, and check how far it has advanced.
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Date: 19/11/11 15:19 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 19/11/11 20:32 (UTC)yes, to me it has always been the saddest thing to know that such a subculture exists :(
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