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talkpoliticshttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15242413
The rough game that we're seeing throughout the Middle East in the last days and especially in Libya today may've taken our attention away from the banking crisis and the stock collapse for a while (I'm not saying these events will ever be able to compete with the OWS debacle, though - you just wait for 24 hours). After the bloody battles around Gaddafi's last bastions in Sirte and Bani Walid, the end of the dictator cheered by triumphant crowds on the Libyan streets, plus the cold-blooded slaughter of Syrian citizens in Homs, and the continuing protests turned into violent clashes against the Yemeni president Saleh who has entrenched himself in power for 33 years, now it's the turn of the legendary Tahrir Square again. The place that became a symbol of the struggle for freedom of the Egyptian people and their fight for democracy and civil rights. Now it's again the epicenter of the events.
But this time, unlike 60 years ago when the place witnessed the celebrations for the establishment of the independent Egyptian republic, and unlike February this year when it became the catalyst for the people's discontent that brought down a 30-year old dictatorship, now the center of Cairo was drowned in blood and heaped with dead bodies. The hopes for freedom and civil rights in Egypt were brutally run over by the armored vehicles of the ruling military junta. And now the merciless massacre is raising serious doubts about the democratic future of the country of the pharaohs. Doubts that some of us were expressing on day one of the Egyptian revolution. And that I was hoping were wrong, but as it turns out, they were not.
Yep, it's that same revolution that deposed Mubarak and that shook the world. A people who had long been ridiculed for their chronic apathy and fatalism, suddenly rose boldly and resolutely, and removed the hated despot. Nothing looked so impossible any more. But now, just 8 months later the most populous and influential country in the Arab world is making a drastic step away from democracy. Its economy is getting ever more unstable, its policies more unclear, and the moods in Cairo even more gloomy than before the revolution. But the biggest blow on the country is the destruction of the image of its military as the guardians of the popular uprising. The generals who just a few months ago declared they'd be keeping the situation under control only temporarily, until free and democratic elections could be held, now look very reluctant to relinquish power. And that's no surprise, despite all the cheerful and optimistic things we heard last spring. It's one of those things that I'd prefer to have been wrong about, but things really seem to be going that way now. Meanwhile, we shouldn't forget that Egypt has a much larger responsibility than its people alone. All the countries where the tsunami of the Arab Spring has swept away the regimes, now largely depend on the example that's being played out in Egypt. Because Egypt has always been a very influential factor in the region, and many Arabs are looking there for possible models to emulate.
By creating the impression that they weren't tempted by power, the supreme military council that consists of 20 top generals headed by Mohammed Tantawi, did promise to guarantee security on the streets and to clean the country of the vicious practices of corruption and police brutality. And indeed, there WERE some results - the Egyptian media are a tad freer now, dozens of corrupt government officials went to trial, and the secret police that's been so famous for its cruel methods is now kept under tight control. But despite all that, the transition to a real democracy is stalled. The road to it is full with bottomless holes, and the generals need constant reminding that they should complete what they had started 8 months ago. And then they're supposed to step down from the pharaoh's throne. Which they don't seem very willing to do now. But unless that happens, the riots will continue to escalate, and their apparent political immaturity and their well-known practices of keeping order through brutality will continue to be in stark discrepancy with the main goals of the revolution. The most recent clashes resulting from the demolition of a Christian Coptic temple in Aswan could be only the beginning of a tragic tendency...
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/23839/Egypt/Politics-/Trigger-for-Copts-anger-Chronicles-of-a-church-bur.aspx
As a mindless manifestation of religious intolerance, this act provoked thousands of Copts to take on the streets and demand government intervention to protect their civil rights. The Christian minority in Egypt which is roughly 8 million (10% of the population) constantly suffers of religious discrimination. The umpteenth act of sacrilege that turned a church into rubble was the final drop that overturned the pot of their patience.
These clashes have been the biggest in Egypt and the most brutally suppressed since the beginning of the Arab Spring. But they weren't just religious riots. Actually the protesters in Cairo got a lot of support from Muslims who are pro secular republic. This turned the street riots into something more than a spontaneous whim. They took the shape of a general revolt against the military who've taken Mubarak's place and who've forgotten their vows about helping the peaceful transition to democracy. In other words, the most worrying element in these events is not the religious tension, it's the concern that the military commanders could use the rising chaos as an excuse to delay the transition to a civilian rule and to resort to authoritarian tactics that would turn Egypt into a Syria on steroids.
http://www.onislam.net/english/news/africa/450890-egypt-christians-muslims-unite-in-tahrir.html
And the more the transitional prime minister Essam Sharaf whines that the riots in Cairo are "the result of a malicious plot", the more the notion that they've actually been deliberately provoked by the government would gain credibility. And the general sense will persist that these events are part of a larger strategy to periodically divert the public attention from the disastrous economic state of the country. Many Egyptians are already suspecting that the military wants the new state institutions to keep being weak and divided so the generals could keep pulling the strings from behind the curtains. The old Roman principle "Divide and rule" obviously has a lot of potential in the land of the pharaohs, where the various religious and political differences could easily be used by the ruling junta. In a country where both Christians and Muslims are struggling against the rising radical ideas for a theocratic state pushed by the Islamists, every little sparkle could quickly grow into uncontrollable fire. What's more, the fear of radical fundamentalism in Egypt is starting to crystallize by the day. The latest polls indicate that hundreds of thousands of Egyptians are ready to leave their country as soon as the Muslim Brotherhood wins the parliamentary election that's scheduled for next month. If it ever takes place at all.
Meanwhile, as one might expect from a bunch of clueless and irrelevant powdered wigs in Europe, the leading Euro diplomats who recently convened in Luxembourg, dedicated just a couple of minutes of their precious time to condemn the violence in Cairo and ask for respect of human rights and civil liberties in Egypt. That was all. Then they went on with their talks about the debt crisis, completely forgetting about Tahrir Square, the Copts and everything that doesn't directly concern them. So much with "the values we stand for" - these are just some nice words written on a manifesto somewhere on a wall in Brussels, and surely we won't forget to mention them from time to time at cocktail parties or before elections, right?
However the finger waving won't change the situation in Egypt, or anywhere to that matter. And it won't make the concerns about the future of the fragile Egyptian democracy to disappear overnight. The aggressive behavior of the military and the sights of dead protesters who were run over by tanks at Tahrir don't seem to suggest that the junta is considering leaving power voluntarily. Not at all. Just on the contrary - the riots will likely serve as a convenient excuse for tightening the grip on power, which is not just a step backwards, but a serious departure for Egypt away from the coveted path of democratic reform.
And while the land of the pharaohs is shaking in doubts, the generals are stepping away from the spirit of the Arab revolution, and we could hear the chains of the 30-year old martial law clanking again over the heads of the unsuspecting Egyptians. But this time there'll be no one to turn to in hope for help. The military have revealed their true face, and the people have realized that they are not their friends any more, never have been. May whatever gods they worship have mercy on them.
The rough game that we're seeing throughout the Middle East in the last days and especially in Libya today may've taken our attention away from the banking crisis and the stock collapse for a while (I'm not saying these events will ever be able to compete with the OWS debacle, though - you just wait for 24 hours). After the bloody battles around Gaddafi's last bastions in Sirte and Bani Walid, the end of the dictator cheered by triumphant crowds on the Libyan streets, plus the cold-blooded slaughter of Syrian citizens in Homs, and the continuing protests turned into violent clashes against the Yemeni president Saleh who has entrenched himself in power for 33 years, now it's the turn of the legendary Tahrir Square again. The place that became a symbol of the struggle for freedom of the Egyptian people and their fight for democracy and civil rights. Now it's again the epicenter of the events.
But this time, unlike 60 years ago when the place witnessed the celebrations for the establishment of the independent Egyptian republic, and unlike February this year when it became the catalyst for the people's discontent that brought down a 30-year old dictatorship, now the center of Cairo was drowned in blood and heaped with dead bodies. The hopes for freedom and civil rights in Egypt were brutally run over by the armored vehicles of the ruling military junta. And now the merciless massacre is raising serious doubts about the democratic future of the country of the pharaohs. Doubts that some of us were expressing on day one of the Egyptian revolution. And that I was hoping were wrong, but as it turns out, they were not.
Yep, it's that same revolution that deposed Mubarak and that shook the world. A people who had long been ridiculed for their chronic apathy and fatalism, suddenly rose boldly and resolutely, and removed the hated despot. Nothing looked so impossible any more. But now, just 8 months later the most populous and influential country in the Arab world is making a drastic step away from democracy. Its economy is getting ever more unstable, its policies more unclear, and the moods in Cairo even more gloomy than before the revolution. But the biggest blow on the country is the destruction of the image of its military as the guardians of the popular uprising. The generals who just a few months ago declared they'd be keeping the situation under control only temporarily, until free and democratic elections could be held, now look very reluctant to relinquish power. And that's no surprise, despite all the cheerful and optimistic things we heard last spring. It's one of those things that I'd prefer to have been wrong about, but things really seem to be going that way now. Meanwhile, we shouldn't forget that Egypt has a much larger responsibility than its people alone. All the countries where the tsunami of the Arab Spring has swept away the regimes, now largely depend on the example that's being played out in Egypt. Because Egypt has always been a very influential factor in the region, and many Arabs are looking there for possible models to emulate.
By creating the impression that they weren't tempted by power, the supreme military council that consists of 20 top generals headed by Mohammed Tantawi, did promise to guarantee security on the streets and to clean the country of the vicious practices of corruption and police brutality. And indeed, there WERE some results - the Egyptian media are a tad freer now, dozens of corrupt government officials went to trial, and the secret police that's been so famous for its cruel methods is now kept under tight control. But despite all that, the transition to a real democracy is stalled. The road to it is full with bottomless holes, and the generals need constant reminding that they should complete what they had started 8 months ago. And then they're supposed to step down from the pharaoh's throne. Which they don't seem very willing to do now. But unless that happens, the riots will continue to escalate, and their apparent political immaturity and their well-known practices of keeping order through brutality will continue to be in stark discrepancy with the main goals of the revolution. The most recent clashes resulting from the demolition of a Christian Coptic temple in Aswan could be only the beginning of a tragic tendency...
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/23839/Egypt/Politics-/Trigger-for-Copts-anger-Chronicles-of-a-church-bur.aspx
As a mindless manifestation of religious intolerance, this act provoked thousands of Copts to take on the streets and demand government intervention to protect their civil rights. The Christian minority in Egypt which is roughly 8 million (10% of the population) constantly suffers of religious discrimination. The umpteenth act of sacrilege that turned a church into rubble was the final drop that overturned the pot of their patience.
These clashes have been the biggest in Egypt and the most brutally suppressed since the beginning of the Arab Spring. But they weren't just religious riots. Actually the protesters in Cairo got a lot of support from Muslims who are pro secular republic. This turned the street riots into something more than a spontaneous whim. They took the shape of a general revolt against the military who've taken Mubarak's place and who've forgotten their vows about helping the peaceful transition to democracy. In other words, the most worrying element in these events is not the religious tension, it's the concern that the military commanders could use the rising chaos as an excuse to delay the transition to a civilian rule and to resort to authoritarian tactics that would turn Egypt into a Syria on steroids.
http://www.onislam.net/english/news/africa/450890-egypt-christians-muslims-unite-in-tahrir.html
And the more the transitional prime minister Essam Sharaf whines that the riots in Cairo are "the result of a malicious plot", the more the notion that they've actually been deliberately provoked by the government would gain credibility. And the general sense will persist that these events are part of a larger strategy to periodically divert the public attention from the disastrous economic state of the country. Many Egyptians are already suspecting that the military wants the new state institutions to keep being weak and divided so the generals could keep pulling the strings from behind the curtains. The old Roman principle "Divide and rule" obviously has a lot of potential in the land of the pharaohs, where the various religious and political differences could easily be used by the ruling junta. In a country where both Christians and Muslims are struggling against the rising radical ideas for a theocratic state pushed by the Islamists, every little sparkle could quickly grow into uncontrollable fire. What's more, the fear of radical fundamentalism in Egypt is starting to crystallize by the day. The latest polls indicate that hundreds of thousands of Egyptians are ready to leave their country as soon as the Muslim Brotherhood wins the parliamentary election that's scheduled for next month. If it ever takes place at all.
Meanwhile, as one might expect from a bunch of clueless and irrelevant powdered wigs in Europe, the leading Euro diplomats who recently convened in Luxembourg, dedicated just a couple of minutes of their precious time to condemn the violence in Cairo and ask for respect of human rights and civil liberties in Egypt. That was all. Then they went on with their talks about the debt crisis, completely forgetting about Tahrir Square, the Copts and everything that doesn't directly concern them. So much with "the values we stand for" - these are just some nice words written on a manifesto somewhere on a wall in Brussels, and surely we won't forget to mention them from time to time at cocktail parties or before elections, right?
However the finger waving won't change the situation in Egypt, or anywhere to that matter. And it won't make the concerns about the future of the fragile Egyptian democracy to disappear overnight. The aggressive behavior of the military and the sights of dead protesters who were run over by tanks at Tahrir don't seem to suggest that the junta is considering leaving power voluntarily. Not at all. Just on the contrary - the riots will likely serve as a convenient excuse for tightening the grip on power, which is not just a step backwards, but a serious departure for Egypt away from the coveted path of democratic reform.
And while the land of the pharaohs is shaking in doubts, the generals are stepping away from the spirit of the Arab revolution, and we could hear the chains of the 30-year old martial law clanking again over the heads of the unsuspecting Egyptians. But this time there'll be no one to turn to in hope for help. The military have revealed their true face, and the people have realized that they are not their friends any more, never have been. May whatever gods they worship have mercy on them.
(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 17:36 (UTC)The military in Egypt will *not* step down. I feel like an echo....
(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 17:38 (UTC)I love idealism, but when it's in the fiction books. In the real world it could be even detrimental.
(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 17:46 (UTC)It's like people have the sense of history like fruit flies. That army has dominated the country behind the scenes during most of industrial history.
(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 17:55 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 18:00 (UTC)But the point is, I am *no* Cassandra and no Mensa candidate either. All it takes is to truly look at history. I'm bitching because...well basically not questioning "independent" military is pretty damn dangerous.
(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 00:12 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 17:49 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 18:28 (UTC)In fact, I'll go so far as to say that even to breech the question can belay undertones of paternalism, which is something to be on guard against.
(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 20:20 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 23:44 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 00:15 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 01:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 17:52 (UTC)(no subject)
(no subject)
Date: 20/10/11 23:13 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 00:46 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 00:50 (UTC).....
Do we really want the Middle Eastern version of *that*?
(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 02:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 12:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 05:10 (UTC)So, what happens after a dictator is overthrown? What can history teach us about current events?
Well, history seems to suggest that anything can happen and probably will.
(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 07:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 14:21 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 23:58 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 22/10/11 00:06 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 22/10/11 00:08 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 07:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 12:27 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 14:20 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 18:32 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 22/10/11 00:05 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 22/10/11 12:48 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 02:59 (UTC)But in other news...I just saved hundreds of dollars by switching to GEICO!
(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 05:11 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 22:34 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 21/10/11 03:45 (UTC)