Putin forever
26/9/11 22:13![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsVladimir Putin will be the president of Russia. AGAIN. Surprised much? No? So I thought.
Not only will he become president again, but his party United Russia will gain full majority in the State Duma (in one way or another), and the state resources will be again used for buying consent and cementing his position in power. This model could continue for quite a long time.
This became evident after the summit of United Russia in Moscow. It's now official. The current president Dmitry Medvedev officially quit any plans for a second term and endorsed Putin for presidential candidate on the 2012 election. And Putin gladly accepted, in turn nominating Medvedev for a leader of the party ticket on the Duma election - and automatically prime-minister.
This farcical play took place on the hockey arena at the Luzhniki stadium. And it was no surprise to anybody. As soon as he was practically appointed by Putin 4 years ago to formally rule as president, Medvedev was called the "keeper" of Kremlin who would simply serve the post back to his mentor in 4 years, allowing him to serve the needed term away from the presidential chair (because the Russian Constitution doesn't allow three presidential terms in a row; but neither does it limit the number of terms one could serve in a lifetime). During all these 4 years of Medvedev "reign", Putin was always close to the scene, but stayed a little hidden behind. He wasn't just the prime minister, he was the second power center in the state. The real power source. At no point, save for a brief episode last year, did the Russians have any illusions that Medvedev had any ability (or will) to act autonomously. He always was merely a marionette of Putin and the power elite around him.
But still, the way the current president put his tail under his butt and voluntarily submitted his position before the elections, without any fight, plus Putin's triumphant return, are a heavy verdict on Medvedev's 4 year in power. The analyst and former Medvedev advisor Gleb Pavlovsky called this "Medvedev's political surrender". Earlier this year Medvedev had announced that it's his duty to run again. He even supported this intention with a strong gesture - he sacked Putin's strongman Igor Sechin. That was his second daring act after he had fired Moscow's legendary mayor Yuri Luzhkov. But now both events look more like a theatrical stunt that had been directed by Putin.
In the eyes of the Russians (and the rest of the world), all of Medvedev's speeches about his dream for a liberalized economy, fighting corruption, accelerated modernization, political innovation and transformation of the governing model - all of it was either a lie or utopia that was never meant to be. If he couldn't do any of that while he presumably had all the power in his hands, what could he do now when he relinquishes it and takes the role of a second violin somewhere at the back of the orchestra? That's what people are asking, and rightly so.
Some analysts have even said that, given the coming unpopular decisions, Medvedev's position as prime minister could be the most convenient vent and scapegoat for the public's anger which is imminent to come. The finance minister Alexei Kudrin who was one of the most respected members of the Russian cabinet, hurried to announce his resignation from the next government, stating "irreparable differences with Medvedev". It's a public secret that they clashed over Medvedev's desire to pump up the funding for the military. But a political motive shouldn't be ruled out either - for example the accelerating exodus of investment capital from Russia and the increasing dependency on the oil and gas prices.
In the light of these events, now some other actions by Medvedev are looking even more cynical. Like his push for a constitutional change that would extend the president's term from 4 to 6 years. Back then he explained his proposal with the argument that it would benefit his successor, not him personally. And now Putin could stay in power until 2024! By the way Putin said at the summit of his party that the two had "made arrangements between themselves" a long time ago about the scheme of how they would take turns at the helm. Curiously, this farce was played in front of everybody's eyes. And the fact that it happened exactly as planned by Putin's puppetmasters (including the brief appearance and even quicker demise of Russian billionaire Prokhorov from the political scene), makes things even more appalling.
So there'll be the same old people at the wheel. Holding the most powerful levers and controlling the crucial positions in the state administration, the regions, state companies, and most importantly the financial and resource capacities, plus holding the ideological control on the Russian society through the most influential media (whether through direct state control or indirectly, through shareholding and political pressure on the private ones), controlling the courts and the police who act by Putin's command against any dissenters. This two-headed hydra has turned Russian politics into an impassable bog.
Most Russians would still want to see both Medvedev and Putin running on the elections, but each one for themselves. Now that would've been interesting. But after the collapse of the Prokhorov campaign (he resigned from his party Pravoye Delo after he realized that it has always been Putin's sockpuppet), obviously the illusions about a multi-party competition were killed before even being born. The polls also suggest that an increasing portion of the politically active citizens want to emigrate from Russia. 22% in June, says a Levada research. A few weeks ago The Economist summarized their motives like this: "People want to leave because they believe there is nothing left for them in Russia. The sense of a future has been amputated". Seeing what happened at the tops in Russia these days, I very much doubt this feeling will go away any time soon.
Not only will he become president again, but his party United Russia will gain full majority in the State Duma (in one way or another), and the state resources will be again used for buying consent and cementing his position in power. This model could continue for quite a long time.
This became evident after the summit of United Russia in Moscow. It's now official. The current president Dmitry Medvedev officially quit any plans for a second term and endorsed Putin for presidential candidate on the 2012 election. And Putin gladly accepted, in turn nominating Medvedev for a leader of the party ticket on the Duma election - and automatically prime-minister.
This farcical play took place on the hockey arena at the Luzhniki stadium. And it was no surprise to anybody. As soon as he was practically appointed by Putin 4 years ago to formally rule as president, Medvedev was called the "keeper" of Kremlin who would simply serve the post back to his mentor in 4 years, allowing him to serve the needed term away from the presidential chair (because the Russian Constitution doesn't allow three presidential terms in a row; but neither does it limit the number of terms one could serve in a lifetime). During all these 4 years of Medvedev "reign", Putin was always close to the scene, but stayed a little hidden behind. He wasn't just the prime minister, he was the second power center in the state. The real power source. At no point, save for a brief episode last year, did the Russians have any illusions that Medvedev had any ability (or will) to act autonomously. He always was merely a marionette of Putin and the power elite around him.
But still, the way the current president put his tail under his butt and voluntarily submitted his position before the elections, without any fight, plus Putin's triumphant return, are a heavy verdict on Medvedev's 4 year in power. The analyst and former Medvedev advisor Gleb Pavlovsky called this "Medvedev's political surrender". Earlier this year Medvedev had announced that it's his duty to run again. He even supported this intention with a strong gesture - he sacked Putin's strongman Igor Sechin. That was his second daring act after he had fired Moscow's legendary mayor Yuri Luzhkov. But now both events look more like a theatrical stunt that had been directed by Putin.
In the eyes of the Russians (and the rest of the world), all of Medvedev's speeches about his dream for a liberalized economy, fighting corruption, accelerated modernization, political innovation and transformation of the governing model - all of it was either a lie or utopia that was never meant to be. If he couldn't do any of that while he presumably had all the power in his hands, what could he do now when he relinquishes it and takes the role of a second violin somewhere at the back of the orchestra? That's what people are asking, and rightly so.
Some analysts have even said that, given the coming unpopular decisions, Medvedev's position as prime minister could be the most convenient vent and scapegoat for the public's anger which is imminent to come. The finance minister Alexei Kudrin who was one of the most respected members of the Russian cabinet, hurried to announce his resignation from the next government, stating "irreparable differences with Medvedev". It's a public secret that they clashed over Medvedev's desire to pump up the funding for the military. But a political motive shouldn't be ruled out either - for example the accelerating exodus of investment capital from Russia and the increasing dependency on the oil and gas prices.
In the light of these events, now some other actions by Medvedev are looking even more cynical. Like his push for a constitutional change that would extend the president's term from 4 to 6 years. Back then he explained his proposal with the argument that it would benefit his successor, not him personally. And now Putin could stay in power until 2024! By the way Putin said at the summit of his party that the two had "made arrangements between themselves" a long time ago about the scheme of how they would take turns at the helm. Curiously, this farce was played in front of everybody's eyes. And the fact that it happened exactly as planned by Putin's puppetmasters (including the brief appearance and even quicker demise of Russian billionaire Prokhorov from the political scene), makes things even more appalling.
So there'll be the same old people at the wheel. Holding the most powerful levers and controlling the crucial positions in the state administration, the regions, state companies, and most importantly the financial and resource capacities, plus holding the ideological control on the Russian society through the most influential media (whether through direct state control or indirectly, through shareholding and political pressure on the private ones), controlling the courts and the police who act by Putin's command against any dissenters. This two-headed hydra has turned Russian politics into an impassable bog.
Most Russians would still want to see both Medvedev and Putin running on the elections, but each one for themselves. Now that would've been interesting. But after the collapse of the Prokhorov campaign (he resigned from his party Pravoye Delo after he realized that it has always been Putin's sockpuppet), obviously the illusions about a multi-party competition were killed before even being born. The polls also suggest that an increasing portion of the politically active citizens want to emigrate from Russia. 22% in June, says a Levada research. A few weeks ago The Economist summarized their motives like this: "People want to leave because they believe there is nothing left for them in Russia. The sense of a future has been amputated". Seeing what happened at the tops in Russia these days, I very much doubt this feeling will go away any time soon.
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Date: 26/9/11 22:05 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 27/9/11 10:18 (UTC)