Revolution? No, thanks!
6/9/11 20:14![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsThe winds of change across the Arab world have already blown away three dictators. But the breeze was extinguished in its roots in probably the most important Arab country, Saudi Arabia. The authorities decided to tighten the grip and harden their stance through some new, tougher laws.
Saudi Arabia is among the biggest advocates for the brutal oppressive regime of absolutist theocratic monarchy. It's certainly the most authoritarian and repressive regime in the region. The Saudis hate the idea that the people of the region are starting to fight for their rights.
So far Ryiadh has granted asylum to two fallen dictators. The recently deposed Tunisian president Zine al Abidine Ben Ali is one of them. The other is Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen (but he vowed to return to his country after he recovers from a failed assassination attempt). What's more, Saudi Arabia sent troops to help the monarch of Bahrain to drown the Shia riots in rivers of blood. Riyadh got scared that the instability could spread on its territory and let the gin free in the southern part of the country where the majority of the Shia population lives. Those same Shia who are traditionally very skeptical about the rule of the Sunni dynasty of Saud. In February and March they were among the people in Saudi Arabia who, inspired by the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia, dared to protest for more civil rights and liberties. The authorities responded with a crackdown.
That's why Saudi Arabia is being called the leader of the regional counter-revolutions. And now this policy is about to jeopardize the cuddly relations between the Obama administration and the Saudis. If Obama ever gets the balls to press his pal seriously (which I doubt, tbh).
The situation is really very simple. Everything boils down to the particular interests of Saudi Arabia. For instance, in the case of Libya and Syria the Saudi government chose not to support the regimes. In Libya, Riyadh supported NATO for the no-fly zone, and then the Saudis withdrew their ambassador in Syria, and the Saudi king stated several times that the violence against the Syrian citizens should stop (irony?) In Yemen, the Saudis participated in the negotiations for the resignation of Saleh.
But meanwhile, there's not even a hint of liberalization in Saudi Arabia itself. Just on the contrary. While in the other countries engulfed in protests the dictators tried to counter the Arab spring with measures and steps for partial democratization just to save their asses (Assad for example removed a very old curfew that had stayed uninterrupted for half a century), the Saudis still have no intention to loosen the grip, instead they're even squeezing harder.
The Economist says that there've been 33 effective death sentences in Saudi Arabia since the beginning of the year. Now the regime has decided to make its laws even firmer. Naturally, the first target were the media. The draconian rules that were valid for the press until recently, were expanded to the Internet, including personal blogs. In April new regulations were added, for instance anyone who dares to commit violations like "stirring division among the population" is threatened by huge fines and immediate arrest. Another such vague formulation is "causing disruption in the social activities". Also "insulting clerics". The violators could be barred from writing in print media indefinitely, or appearing on the electronic media.
And that's not all. The regime is considering a new law that would severely punish anyone who's suspected of having anything to do with terrorism. But the definition of "terrorism" includes some vague things like "threatening national unity" and "harming the country's interests". It's like the Patriot Act on steroids. The violators could be held in an isolator without being charged for a period of 120 days, before even appearing in court. And the court could then adjudge some additional months in detention. Moreover, anyone who's been sentenced to death will be executed. No exceptions. Up to 10 years in jail for anyone who questions the integrity and honesty of the King and the heir-apparent.
Amnesty International is already experiencing concerns that such a law could criminalize legitimate dissent. But I've heard some strange things from a Saudi student here in Geneva who I consider a friend. He claims King Abdullah is actually very "loved by his people" (something we could hear from genuine Libyans as they were talking with love about Gaddafi). This guy says Abdullah's policy is to try to "make all other countries our friends". Since he came to power, he's been "doing his best for the betterment of his subjects". He "loves justice", he has created lots of jobs and has built the country from the backwater it used to be, to a prosperous and leading power in the region. "If you compare the Saudi Arabia of six years ago and that of today, you'll see a huge difference". That's what he said. If the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya had happened during the reign of the previous king, "something could've happened in Saudi Arabia too, but now I don't believe it". The leaders of those countries deserve their fate, because they've oppressed their peoples, "unlike King Abdullah". Wow. Just, wow. But he's a friend, what could I have said? I just shut up and stared...
Despite all this praise from some of Abdullah's brainwashed subjects, I'd say that calling Saudi Arabia an island of stability would be an over-statement. This year there were more protests than usual there. Much more. Granted, not as massive as those in Tunisia and Egypt, not anything remotely capable of bringing the regime down. There were demonstrations of young Shiites in the east, including against the sending of the Saudi troops to Bahrain. There were protests in Riyadh itself, organized by local human rights activists. There were angry people marching in Jeddah. The people's anger was caused by the response to the floods in the region and the poor infrastructure that didn't prevent them from suffering from the disaster (very similar to Katrina). Seems like the fable about Abdullah "who built this country" is not valid everywhere.
And bear in mind that we're talking of a country where gathering in public places and political protest is absolutely illegal. Meanwhile, some top clerics are pushing the meme that the demonstrations are against the Islamic principles. Given all this pressure it's no surprise that people are not protesting as massively as those in other Arab countries. But this doesn't mean that the country is totally stable and everyone is happy. It's just that discontent is much more muted and underground. The possibility of riots suddenly erupting shouldn't be under-estimated, because the most pressing problems are still there: unemployment, corruption and total lack of freedoms. But the opposition is still pressured and fragmented and it cannot mobilize a large support in all parts of the country. It's divided between two main demands - for a more liberalized constitutional monarchy, and for a government with a stronger Islamist inclination. And those two things are to a large extent mutually exclusive.
Some actions of the Saudi government are showing that it's very well aware of the threat of riots. That's why it decided to increase the public spending and it sent police to guard the bigger cities. But look what my young Saudi acquaintance had to say about this: even before the Arab revolutions, the Saudis had a number of privileges. All students like him receive stipends for studying abroad (he chose Université de Genève). The King increased all salaries in the public sector by 30%, as well as the social aid for the unemployed and the elderly. A thing Qaboos of Oman also did, to tone down the discontent from the slow development in the recent years. As a student in Geneva, this lad gets about 1500 CHF ($1700+) every month, and a free flight ticket to Saudi Arabia once in 9 months. All his university fees are being paid by the Saudi government and he could go to any university around the world that he chooses.
The price for all this is that while the Arabs in other countries are fervently demanding (and gaining) more freedoms, my friend will have to settle for much less in that respect. But he doesn't seem to be bothered by this at all. When I try to troll him by reminding him that the women in Saudi Arabia are barred from driving a car, he says: "So? We hire drivers for them!" What the hell do you respond to that!?
Saudi Arabia is among the biggest advocates for the brutal oppressive regime of absolutist theocratic monarchy. It's certainly the most authoritarian and repressive regime in the region. The Saudis hate the idea that the people of the region are starting to fight for their rights.
So far Ryiadh has granted asylum to two fallen dictators. The recently deposed Tunisian president Zine al Abidine Ben Ali is one of them. The other is Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen (but he vowed to return to his country after he recovers from a failed assassination attempt). What's more, Saudi Arabia sent troops to help the monarch of Bahrain to drown the Shia riots in rivers of blood. Riyadh got scared that the instability could spread on its territory and let the gin free in the southern part of the country where the majority of the Shia population lives. Those same Shia who are traditionally very skeptical about the rule of the Sunni dynasty of Saud. In February and March they were among the people in Saudi Arabia who, inspired by the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia, dared to protest for more civil rights and liberties. The authorities responded with a crackdown.
That's why Saudi Arabia is being called the leader of the regional counter-revolutions. And now this policy is about to jeopardize the cuddly relations between the Obama administration and the Saudis. If Obama ever gets the balls to press his pal seriously (which I doubt, tbh).
The situation is really very simple. Everything boils down to the particular interests of Saudi Arabia. For instance, in the case of Libya and Syria the Saudi government chose not to support the regimes. In Libya, Riyadh supported NATO for the no-fly zone, and then the Saudis withdrew their ambassador in Syria, and the Saudi king stated several times that the violence against the Syrian citizens should stop (irony?) In Yemen, the Saudis participated in the negotiations for the resignation of Saleh.
But meanwhile, there's not even a hint of liberalization in Saudi Arabia itself. Just on the contrary. While in the other countries engulfed in protests the dictators tried to counter the Arab spring with measures and steps for partial democratization just to save their asses (Assad for example removed a very old curfew that had stayed uninterrupted for half a century), the Saudis still have no intention to loosen the grip, instead they're even squeezing harder.
The Economist says that there've been 33 effective death sentences in Saudi Arabia since the beginning of the year. Now the regime has decided to make its laws even firmer. Naturally, the first target were the media. The draconian rules that were valid for the press until recently, were expanded to the Internet, including personal blogs. In April new regulations were added, for instance anyone who dares to commit violations like "stirring division among the population" is threatened by huge fines and immediate arrest. Another such vague formulation is "causing disruption in the social activities". Also "insulting clerics". The violators could be barred from writing in print media indefinitely, or appearing on the electronic media.
And that's not all. The regime is considering a new law that would severely punish anyone who's suspected of having anything to do with terrorism. But the definition of "terrorism" includes some vague things like "threatening national unity" and "harming the country's interests". It's like the Patriot Act on steroids. The violators could be held in an isolator without being charged for a period of 120 days, before even appearing in court. And the court could then adjudge some additional months in detention. Moreover, anyone who's been sentenced to death will be executed. No exceptions. Up to 10 years in jail for anyone who questions the integrity and honesty of the King and the heir-apparent.
Amnesty International is already experiencing concerns that such a law could criminalize legitimate dissent. But I've heard some strange things from a Saudi student here in Geneva who I consider a friend. He claims King Abdullah is actually very "loved by his people" (something we could hear from genuine Libyans as they were talking with love about Gaddafi). This guy says Abdullah's policy is to try to "make all other countries our friends". Since he came to power, he's been "doing his best for the betterment of his subjects". He "loves justice", he has created lots of jobs and has built the country from the backwater it used to be, to a prosperous and leading power in the region. "If you compare the Saudi Arabia of six years ago and that of today, you'll see a huge difference". That's what he said. If the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya had happened during the reign of the previous king, "something could've happened in Saudi Arabia too, but now I don't believe it". The leaders of those countries deserve their fate, because they've oppressed their peoples, "unlike King Abdullah". Wow. Just, wow. But he's a friend, what could I have said? I just shut up and stared...
Despite all this praise from some of Abdullah's brainwashed subjects, I'd say that calling Saudi Arabia an island of stability would be an over-statement. This year there were more protests than usual there. Much more. Granted, not as massive as those in Tunisia and Egypt, not anything remotely capable of bringing the regime down. There were demonstrations of young Shiites in the east, including against the sending of the Saudi troops to Bahrain. There were protests in Riyadh itself, organized by local human rights activists. There were angry people marching in Jeddah. The people's anger was caused by the response to the floods in the region and the poor infrastructure that didn't prevent them from suffering from the disaster (very similar to Katrina). Seems like the fable about Abdullah "who built this country" is not valid everywhere.
And bear in mind that we're talking of a country where gathering in public places and political protest is absolutely illegal. Meanwhile, some top clerics are pushing the meme that the demonstrations are against the Islamic principles. Given all this pressure it's no surprise that people are not protesting as massively as those in other Arab countries. But this doesn't mean that the country is totally stable and everyone is happy. It's just that discontent is much more muted and underground. The possibility of riots suddenly erupting shouldn't be under-estimated, because the most pressing problems are still there: unemployment, corruption and total lack of freedoms. But the opposition is still pressured and fragmented and it cannot mobilize a large support in all parts of the country. It's divided between two main demands - for a more liberalized constitutional monarchy, and for a government with a stronger Islamist inclination. And those two things are to a large extent mutually exclusive.
Some actions of the Saudi government are showing that it's very well aware of the threat of riots. That's why it decided to increase the public spending and it sent police to guard the bigger cities. But look what my young Saudi acquaintance had to say about this: even before the Arab revolutions, the Saudis had a number of privileges. All students like him receive stipends for studying abroad (he chose Université de Genève). The King increased all salaries in the public sector by 30%, as well as the social aid for the unemployed and the elderly. A thing Qaboos of Oman also did, to tone down the discontent from the slow development in the recent years. As a student in Geneva, this lad gets about 1500 CHF ($1700+) every month, and a free flight ticket to Saudi Arabia once in 9 months. All his university fees are being paid by the Saudi government and he could go to any university around the world that he chooses.
The price for all this is that while the Arabs in other countries are fervently demanding (and gaining) more freedoms, my friend will have to settle for much less in that respect. But he doesn't seem to be bothered by this at all. When I try to troll him by reminding him that the women in Saudi Arabia are barred from driving a car, he says: "So? We hire drivers for them!" What the hell do you respond to that!?
(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 18:10 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/9/11 10:47 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 18:20 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 18:22 (UTC)And yes, I can still call him my friend because he's very respectful and loyal and he has the occasional insights that make you think for a while about things other than Lady Gaga and the latest Hollywood movie.
(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 21:24 (UTC)Speaking of Lady Gaga...
Date: 7/9/11 00:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 18:48 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 18:56 (UTC)Selling the car without the wheels or the engine
Date: 6/9/11 21:21 (UTC)Re: Selling the car without the wheels or the engine
Date: 7/9/11 00:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 18:52 (UTC)(sp? Ah, well.)
They are like...
Date: 7/9/11 00:29 (UTC)The Irony! It burns!
Date: 7/9/11 20:19 (UTC)Re: The Irony! It burns!
Date: 7/9/11 22:14 (UTC)Re: The Irony! It burns!
Date: 8/9/11 00:15 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 20:57 (UTC)It's Djinn. Since you nitpicked me before, it's only fair.
You could have said "Well, that's not how it appears from the outside. Maybe you could try and consider that viewpoint?"
Saudi Arabia's time will come, when they get enough people upset enough to do something about it.
(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 21:02 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 21:23 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/9/11 00:38 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/9/11 00:05 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/9/11 00:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/9/11 21:29 (UTC)(Nice choice of revenge, warrior)
As for my friend, I'm joking. You know what a joke is, I hope? As I said above, I've had enormous debates with this guy, which of course still doesn't stop me from being his friend.
It'd be a curious thing to watch when Saudi Arabia's time comes. I somehow think it'll be very messy. I hope my pal won't get hurt in the process. He may be deluded in many ways but still I don't want any harm for him.
I would not call them a theocracy.
Date: 7/9/11 00:32 (UTC)Re: I would not call them a theocracy.
Date: 7/9/11 20:24 (UTC)(In interviews, the more hard-core Wa'habis regard Shi'as as "worse than Jews" which, given the well-known stance regarding Palastine, is saying something.)
Re: I would not call them a theocracy.
Date: 7/9/11 22:13 (UTC)Re: I would not call them a theocracy.
Date: 7/9/11 20:25 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/9/11 01:57 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/9/11 05:49 (UTC)Good thing the entire country is wealthy enough to hire drivers for their wives and daughters.