Your point is fairly made independently of BDJ's statement. I would tend to agree with you. On the other hand, my comments to BDJ are basically snark based on the fact that he is claiming to be completely clueless. I rather suspect that this might be a way for him to answer me without actually supporting any positions that he knows that I battle for. On its face, his stated position of absolute faith in oil execs to solve the problem is silly, and though he has been seen running around using Sarah Palin icons, I really doubt that he is so clueless as he claims. Arguing that he simply doesn't know is probably easier for him than to support the case that the technology is already here, as opposed to some fantasy-future tech that hasn't yet been imagined.
I've actually been operating a large portion of my life on the following assumptions.
1: The Global Energy market is more vast than pretty much anybody imagines, as is the wealth held by various Global Energy Interests.
2: Oil is incredibly versatile in the number of niches it can fill. It will be replaced by a great many technologies (Solar, Wind, Tidal, Biofuel being primary over the long term).
3: There is no Economy without Energy.
4: I DO believe that oil interests are faced with the decision of either get into new tech or die. However, I am quite certain that they are not going to invent much in the process; they'll buy it (and then start directing resources to improvement / R&D). For one thing, the last thing big oil wants is for the whole world to think that the big change is immanent. Once the Big Oil makes a real move on new tech, suddenly the prices of new tech assets skyrocket as everybody starts buying in. Also, it's much harder for Oil Corporations to try to turn their existing expertise and assets towards new tech, than it will be for them to just buy assets that have been developed by others, and then grow it and integrate it.
5. The roots of the primary technologies exist right now, and the path to replacement of fossil fuels over 60 years or so is realistic.
6. Fucking Americans are assholes and fight new tech with great zeal (overgeneralization here). Chinese are not wed to existing fossil interests like Americans, and so they're going to own the future energy market if we Americans don't get off of our asses.
7-10000. I could go on, and BDJ knows it. LOL!
Here's my Solar Blog if you want... http://Americansolareconomy.blogspot.com
The most recent post isn't a very good one, but it's rooted in some fun calculations from way back.. haven't been blogging in quite awhile, but there some good info from over a year ago about what's been going on in China in the Solar area.
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Date: 19/5/10 01:39 (UTC)I've actually been operating a large portion of my life on the following assumptions.
1: The Global Energy market is more vast than pretty much anybody imagines, as is the wealth held by various Global Energy Interests.
2: Oil is incredibly versatile in the number of niches it can fill. It will be replaced by a great many technologies (Solar, Wind, Tidal, Biofuel being primary over the long term).
3: There is no Economy without Energy.
4: I DO believe that oil interests are faced with the decision of either get into new tech or die. However, I am quite certain that they are not going to invent much in the process; they'll buy it (and then start directing resources to improvement / R&D). For one thing, the last thing big oil wants is for the whole world to think that the big change is immanent. Once the Big Oil makes a real move on new tech, suddenly the prices of new tech assets skyrocket as everybody starts buying in. Also, it's much harder for Oil Corporations to try to turn their existing expertise and assets towards new tech, than it will be for them to just buy assets that have been developed by others, and then grow it and integrate it.
5. The roots of the primary technologies exist right now, and the path to replacement of fossil fuels over 60 years or so is realistic.
6. Fucking Americans are assholes and fight new tech with great zeal (overgeneralization here). Chinese are not wed to existing fossil interests like Americans, and so they're going to own the future energy market if we Americans don't get off of our asses.
7-10000. I could go on, and BDJ knows it. LOL!
Here's my Solar Blog if you want... http://Americansolareconomy.blogspot.com
The most recent post isn't a very good one, but it's rooted in some fun calculations from way back.. haven't been blogging in quite awhile, but there some good info from over a year ago about what's been going on in China in the Solar area.