Outcome Iran

[oportet]

It has begun, therefore it will end. Probably.

The question now is, when does it end?

Let's meet our choices:

A) less than 6 months - This would require a quick victory, or a quick realization that victory isn't possible without pushing multiple economies around the world off a cliff, and maybe not even then. Say our objectives have been met, make nice with whatever leader the Iranian people or the irgc or mossad has
chosen to lead, and return to normalcy.

B) 6 months to 1 year - This puts us at midterms - up until then boots on the ground seems unlikely, anything goes after that though. This is probably the last chance to hang the mission accomplished banner and bow out with the tab under a trillion.

C) 1 to 3 years - At this point some might be doubting the reports that Iran's military is totally tremendously incredibly decimated obliterated. This is already unpopular and unless there's an attack on the homeland with direct proven connections to Iran I don't foresee public support growing (but then again, it isn't necessary)

D) 3+ years - This puts us post-Trump - which means Trumps ego didn't find a way to end it. It also means the war either wasn't unpopular enough to stop Vance, or democrats won with a candidate with intentions to keep it going.


I'm going with B, early November if you have a pool going. Sooner would be better.

Comments

[paserbyp]

D

[oportet]

That's a grim answer, but probably the most likely one

[paserbyp]

Trump learned from Putin and Zelensky that war is answer to all questions. So, he’ll follow this trend.

[dewline]

If the goal of Trump's backers and accomplices is to cause the next Depression...?

[oportet]

C would be enough to get us there - but it's kind of a reach to think that's the intention. I think he thought this would be easy. Maybe the itch was always there to pull off what the last 40 years of presidents couldn't - maybe the Maduro raid made him overconfident. Maybe Iran was weeks away from obtaining a nuke, just as they have been since before I was born.