so close

9/2/26 14:49
oportet: (Default)
[personal profile] oportet posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
Something is about to happen in Iran - but then again this is always true, we're perpetually on the verge.

The question now is - is something really about to happen - as in the next 5 days?

There are stories of multitudes of military cargo planes heading that way - but that could be just to get the story out that there are multitudes of military cargo planes heading that way.

Netanyahu is visiting DC in the next few days - which is also something that always seems to be true - but it could mean something this time.

There are also stories (and they absolutely could not be true) that some higher up in Iran claims Trump offered a small staged war. Odd if true, but more odd if true and that deal wasn't taken. Sounds like a tremendous deal some are saying the most beautiful deal ever.

What say you?

Something happens by Saturday - or nothing happens by Saturday?

(no subject)

Date: 9/2/26 22:59 (UTC)
jacober_calc: (Default)
From: [personal profile] jacober_calc
Any invasion of Iran, even a so-called small staged war, would require US naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz. Arguably before any ground forces even come close to the borders because Iran has capability and resolve to close shipping and impact global oil shipments. This has almost always been the great holdup with action against Iran because Iran's tactics are incredibly non-conventional and leverage a very large weakness in US force disposition. The effective use of well-trained and well-employed fast attack craft combined with potential marine mines means this is an extremely tricky operation. If I see US naval posturing and action in that region than I would be a little more into the whole something just might happen thing.

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