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talkpoliticsThe Swedish experiment with Covid-19 is over. After the surge of infections this autumn led to an increase in the number of hospitalized and deaths as a result of the disease, the Swedish government has given up trying to fight the pandemic solely with voluntary measures, which is what made it unique among Western countries.
Like most Europeans, Swedes are entering the winter with a number of restrictions, ranging from bans on mass gatherings to restricting alcohol sales to closing schools. These measures are designed to prevent overloading the Swedish health system and reduce the mortality rate, which is already among the highest in the world per capita.
This tightening of the measures, which began last month, puts an end to the free approach that has made Sweden the main focus of the often heated debate between opponents and defenders of lockout measures around the world.
Fans of the Swedish model have tried to sell the supposed benefits for the economy and respect for fundamental freedoms. Critics have called this approach gambling with human lives, especially for the most vulnerable members of society. With the change in strategy, the Swedish government is now getting on the side of those who insist on at least some mandatory restrictions.
When the infection spread to Europe in March, Sweden distanced itself from most countries on the continent and decided not to make wearing masks compulsory, or shut down bars, nightclubs and other businesses where gathering large groups of people facilitates the spread of the virus, leaving citizens to decide on their own how to protect themselves.
Until a month ago, mass sports and cultural events continued to take place in Sweden, and health officials kept insisting that voluntary measures were sufficient to prevent a new spread of the infection.
Weeks later, however, the death toll from Covid-19 reached nearly 700 per 1 million, and the exponential increase in infections and the crowding of hospital wards prompted the government to make a complete U-turn.
In an emotional televised address on November 22, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven called on Swedes to cancel all non-essential meetings and announced a ban on gatherings of more than 8 people, which practically shut down cinemas and other entertainment venues. A ban on the sale of alcohol after 10 pm was also introduced. As of Monday, high school students have again switched to distance learning, and younger students must also stay at home if someone in their family is tested positive with Covid-19.
The authorities initially chose a strategy that was totally different from the rest of Europe, and in result the country suffered a lot in the first wave. It's beyond me how the hell they failed to see the second wave coming.
Last week, the total number of coronavirus deaths in Sweden exceeded 7,000. Neighboring Denmark, Finland and Norway, countries with similar populations, have registered 878, 415 and 354 deaths, respectively, since the start of the pandemic. For the first time since WW2, Sweden's neighbors have closed their borders with this country.
They sure don't want to say Sweden is the black sheep of the region, but it sure was an entirely different sheep. At least that's how most neighbors now view it.
In fact, local medical staff have never shared the Public Health Agency's optimism about the so-called "herd immunity", the coveted resistance in the entire population to a pathogen that was supposed to be acquired through gradual exposure - and there have been repeated warnings that the virus cannot be controlled by voluntary measures alone.
One of the reasons Sweden has maintained this approach for so long, despite all warnings, has been the high degree of independence of the Public Health Agency and similar state institutions.
The key public person in the country's pandemic strategy was one Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist and head of the Public Health Agency. For a long time he maintained that lock-downs were unsustainable and unnecessary. His agency continued to discourage the wearing of masks, while the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control - an EU agency headquartered near Dr. Tegnell's office in Stockholm - recommended that they be worn.
Tegnell predicted that the Swedish population would gradually build immunity to the virus through controlled exposure, that vaccine development would take longer than expected, and that mortality rates in the Western countries would eventually converge. Instead, more and more vaccines are reaching the final stages of development and even going into distribution mode - last week the UK became the first Western country to approve a vaccine against Covid-19. Mortality rates in Sweden continue to be significantly higher than in the neighboring countries, and Tegnell was forced to admit that the new rise in infections shows that there are "no signs" of achieving herd immunity in the country. In recent interviews, he has described herd immunity as a very difficult "mystery" to solve .
At the same time, the laissez-faire strategy for tackling the pandemic also failed to provide the economic benefits that its apologists predicted. In the first half of the year, Sweden's GDP fell by 8.5%, and unemployment is expected to reach nearly 10% in 2021, according to forecasts by the central bank and several economic institutions.
Businesses such as restaurants, hotels and clothing stores are closing en masse. Unlike other countries in Europe, where governments have combined restrictions with generous incentives, the Swedish authorities have offered relatively less support for businesses, as they have not required closures.
So what we've got in the end is something that's worse than an actual lockdown. The year has been catastrophic for all people in business: they didn't make us shut down, so they didn't provide us with any significant support, but at the same time they told people "don't go to restaurants". And this has resulted in massive loss of jobs and capital.
Fear of the virus and the authorities' advice to avoid social contacts have put pressure on domestic consumption, which in turn has damaged businesses and investor confidence. Some countries with mandatory restrictions have done way better than Sweden in this respect.
And this is only going to get from bad to worse, since the peak of the second wave of coronavirus is expected to coincide with the traditionally strong Christmas season for these businesses. "Maybe we should have started wearing masks sooner," are words I've been hearing very often these days.
The intervention of Prime Minister Löfven means the dethronement of Tegnell from his pedestal, who has practically handed over control of the pandemic to the government. However, some scientists believe that the failed experiment has shaken people's confidence in the authorities - and this, in a country that otherwise has a long tradition of respecting them. According to a recent study, only 46% of Swedes want to be vaccinated against Covid-19, and 26% are adamant that they will not. Which is a direct consequence of this distrust that has been building up.
Another survey in November found that 82% of respondents were concerned about the severity of the pandemic's effects on hospitals, and 44% said the authorities had not taken enough action - a significant increase from 31% in October. The majority of respondents still continue to evaluate Tegnell positively, however - perhaps due to fame inertia or something.
The spread of the infection in Stockholm is growing, and we are already in a very, very serious situation, as Bjorn Eriksson, director of health and hospitals for the Swedish capital region has admitted. He reports that the health professionals in the city find it difficult to cope with the large number of patients, and the pandemic is putting serious pressure on the health system, which can only be alleviated through stricter measures.
See, Swedes like to think of themselves as very rational and pragmatic. However, for months the authorities have insisted on this unorthodox approach, despite the mounting evidence that it was failing. This has rendered Swedish society unrecognizable in a very short time, and I shudder to think of the long-term consequences.
Like most Europeans, Swedes are entering the winter with a number of restrictions, ranging from bans on mass gatherings to restricting alcohol sales to closing schools. These measures are designed to prevent overloading the Swedish health system and reduce the mortality rate, which is already among the highest in the world per capita.
This tightening of the measures, which began last month, puts an end to the free approach that has made Sweden the main focus of the often heated debate between opponents and defenders of lockout measures around the world.
Fans of the Swedish model have tried to sell the supposed benefits for the economy and respect for fundamental freedoms. Critics have called this approach gambling with human lives, especially for the most vulnerable members of society. With the change in strategy, the Swedish government is now getting on the side of those who insist on at least some mandatory restrictions.
When the infection spread to Europe in March, Sweden distanced itself from most countries on the continent and decided not to make wearing masks compulsory, or shut down bars, nightclubs and other businesses where gathering large groups of people facilitates the spread of the virus, leaving citizens to decide on their own how to protect themselves.
Until a month ago, mass sports and cultural events continued to take place in Sweden, and health officials kept insisting that voluntary measures were sufficient to prevent a new spread of the infection.
Weeks later, however, the death toll from Covid-19 reached nearly 700 per 1 million, and the exponential increase in infections and the crowding of hospital wards prompted the government to make a complete U-turn.
In an emotional televised address on November 22, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven called on Swedes to cancel all non-essential meetings and announced a ban on gatherings of more than 8 people, which practically shut down cinemas and other entertainment venues. A ban on the sale of alcohol after 10 pm was also introduced. As of Monday, high school students have again switched to distance learning, and younger students must also stay at home if someone in their family is tested positive with Covid-19.
The authorities initially chose a strategy that was totally different from the rest of Europe, and in result the country suffered a lot in the first wave. It's beyond me how the hell they failed to see the second wave coming.
Last week, the total number of coronavirus deaths in Sweden exceeded 7,000. Neighboring Denmark, Finland and Norway, countries with similar populations, have registered 878, 415 and 354 deaths, respectively, since the start of the pandemic. For the first time since WW2, Sweden's neighbors have closed their borders with this country.
They sure don't want to say Sweden is the black sheep of the region, but it sure was an entirely different sheep. At least that's how most neighbors now view it.
In fact, local medical staff have never shared the Public Health Agency's optimism about the so-called "herd immunity", the coveted resistance in the entire population to a pathogen that was supposed to be acquired through gradual exposure - and there have been repeated warnings that the virus cannot be controlled by voluntary measures alone.
One of the reasons Sweden has maintained this approach for so long, despite all warnings, has been the high degree of independence of the Public Health Agency and similar state institutions.
The key public person in the country's pandemic strategy was one Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist and head of the Public Health Agency. For a long time he maintained that lock-downs were unsustainable and unnecessary. His agency continued to discourage the wearing of masks, while the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control - an EU agency headquartered near Dr. Tegnell's office in Stockholm - recommended that they be worn.
Tegnell predicted that the Swedish population would gradually build immunity to the virus through controlled exposure, that vaccine development would take longer than expected, and that mortality rates in the Western countries would eventually converge. Instead, more and more vaccines are reaching the final stages of development and even going into distribution mode - last week the UK became the first Western country to approve a vaccine against Covid-19. Mortality rates in Sweden continue to be significantly higher than in the neighboring countries, and Tegnell was forced to admit that the new rise in infections shows that there are "no signs" of achieving herd immunity in the country. In recent interviews, he has described herd immunity as a very difficult "mystery" to solve .
At the same time, the laissez-faire strategy for tackling the pandemic also failed to provide the economic benefits that its apologists predicted. In the first half of the year, Sweden's GDP fell by 8.5%, and unemployment is expected to reach nearly 10% in 2021, according to forecasts by the central bank and several economic institutions.
Businesses such as restaurants, hotels and clothing stores are closing en masse. Unlike other countries in Europe, where governments have combined restrictions with generous incentives, the Swedish authorities have offered relatively less support for businesses, as they have not required closures.
So what we've got in the end is something that's worse than an actual lockdown. The year has been catastrophic for all people in business: they didn't make us shut down, so they didn't provide us with any significant support, but at the same time they told people "don't go to restaurants". And this has resulted in massive loss of jobs and capital.
Fear of the virus and the authorities' advice to avoid social contacts have put pressure on domestic consumption, which in turn has damaged businesses and investor confidence. Some countries with mandatory restrictions have done way better than Sweden in this respect.
And this is only going to get from bad to worse, since the peak of the second wave of coronavirus is expected to coincide with the traditionally strong Christmas season for these businesses. "Maybe we should have started wearing masks sooner," are words I've been hearing very often these days.
The intervention of Prime Minister Löfven means the dethronement of Tegnell from his pedestal, who has practically handed over control of the pandemic to the government. However, some scientists believe that the failed experiment has shaken people's confidence in the authorities - and this, in a country that otherwise has a long tradition of respecting them. According to a recent study, only 46% of Swedes want to be vaccinated against Covid-19, and 26% are adamant that they will not. Which is a direct consequence of this distrust that has been building up.
Another survey in November found that 82% of respondents were concerned about the severity of the pandemic's effects on hospitals, and 44% said the authorities had not taken enough action - a significant increase from 31% in October. The majority of respondents still continue to evaluate Tegnell positively, however - perhaps due to fame inertia or something.
The spread of the infection in Stockholm is growing, and we are already in a very, very serious situation, as Bjorn Eriksson, director of health and hospitals for the Swedish capital region has admitted. He reports that the health professionals in the city find it difficult to cope with the large number of patients, and the pandemic is putting serious pressure on the health system, which can only be alleviated through stricter measures.
See, Swedes like to think of themselves as very rational and pragmatic. However, for months the authorities have insisted on this unorthodox approach, despite the mounting evidence that it was failing. This has rendered Swedish society unrecognizable in a very short time, and I shudder to think of the long-term consequences.
