Lessons from the swine flu
3/6/20 11:15![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsThe Covid-19 pandemic is often compared to the swine flu of 2009. Eleven years ago, the medical experts used to forecast a very bad global wave of swine flu, with lots of fatalities. However, the epidemic passed relatively quickly, and much more easily than anticipated. Now of course many are asking the question if the same could repeat with the Coronavirus.
Except, there are some significant differences between the two epidemics.
Today in hindsight, it has become clear why the forecasts of 2009 got it all so wrong. In the course of the swine flu pandemic, some unknown effects appeared that led to its mitigation.
Based on animal tests, it was initially supposed that the swine flu would be much more dangerous to humans. But then it was discovered that the elderly people, then considered a high-risk group, were not so susceptible to the virus. Turned out, they had the ones who had the so called background immunity.
The Spanish flu started in 1918 and kept making the circles until around 1957. Then the similar Asian flu appeared, and stayed around until 1968, when it was replaced by the so called Hong Kong flu. The latter is still around today. In 1977, there was the Russian flu. The virus that caused it, H1N1, is identical to the Spanish flu and its variations that have existed between 1918 and 1947. The so called Russian flu persisted until around 2009.
The Spanish flu, Russian flu and their versions are related to the 2009 swine flu. Which is why two major groups were spared, both having acquired immunity to this group of viruses. One consisted of people who had carried the Spanish flu or any of its latter versions. Everyone aged above 51 in 2009 had likely had met with the H1N1 at some point, which helped them react more efficiently to the swine flu. The second group are younger people who had also had contact with the Russian flu version of the H1N1. These connections were only discovered months after the swine flu outbreak, which is why they hadn't been factored in during the initial estimations.
This brings us back to the Covid-19 virus. Could the same story happen again? Well, it isn't clear if previously acquired immunity to similar viruses would help here. Theoretically, it's possible that smoe patients had indeed got immunity by having met with the less dangerous coronaviruses that tend to circulate during the flu season.
The new data is expected to come ou soon, and it will allow to gain more insight into these factors. There is reason to expect that such immunity could exist, but it will likely have much lower contribution compared to the swine flu case.
Except, there are some significant differences between the two epidemics.
Today in hindsight, it has become clear why the forecasts of 2009 got it all so wrong. In the course of the swine flu pandemic, some unknown effects appeared that led to its mitigation.
Based on animal tests, it was initially supposed that the swine flu would be much more dangerous to humans. But then it was discovered that the elderly people, then considered a high-risk group, were not so susceptible to the virus. Turned out, they had the ones who had the so called background immunity.
The Spanish flu started in 1918 and kept making the circles until around 1957. Then the similar Asian flu appeared, and stayed around until 1968, when it was replaced by the so called Hong Kong flu. The latter is still around today. In 1977, there was the Russian flu. The virus that caused it, H1N1, is identical to the Spanish flu and its variations that have existed between 1918 and 1947. The so called Russian flu persisted until around 2009.
The Spanish flu, Russian flu and their versions are related to the 2009 swine flu. Which is why two major groups were spared, both having acquired immunity to this group of viruses. One consisted of people who had carried the Spanish flu or any of its latter versions. Everyone aged above 51 in 2009 had likely had met with the H1N1 at some point, which helped them react more efficiently to the swine flu. The second group are younger people who had also had contact with the Russian flu version of the H1N1. These connections were only discovered months after the swine flu outbreak, which is why they hadn't been factored in during the initial estimations.
This brings us back to the Covid-19 virus. Could the same story happen again? Well, it isn't clear if previously acquired immunity to similar viruses would help here. Theoretically, it's possible that smoe patients had indeed got immunity by having met with the less dangerous coronaviruses that tend to circulate during the flu season.
The new data is expected to come ou soon, and it will allow to gain more insight into these factors. There is reason to expect that such immunity could exist, but it will likely have much lower contribution compared to the swine flu case.
(no subject)
Date: 4/6/20 01:46 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 4/6/20 06:10 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 4/6/20 17:11 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 4/6/20 17:18 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 4/6/20 18:35 (UTC)I'm talking about the thousands of people side by side in the street.
You're talking about the drug that was dismissed by 'pro-science' people because a RUSSIAN NAZI endorsed it.
I'd welcome an explanation on either
(no subject)
Date: 4/6/20 18:48 (UTC)That's my explanation. I don't know how we jumped to the thousands of people on the street.
(no subject)
Date: 4/6/20 06:12 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 4/6/20 16:32 (UTC)