Some thoughts on Iran
13/1/20 13:40![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
fridi posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsTrump's actions re: Soleimani may've had the desired effect, after all. He managed to troll the Iranians pretty bad, and knock them out of their comfort zone to an extent that they'd over-react and make a major mistake, shooting down that passenger plane.
Now there are mass protests in Iran, demanding accountability for the irresponsible mistake and mismanagement of their defense. (If being a little pissed is all it takes to make such deadly mistakes, I shudder to think that these guys actually do want to possess a nuclear arsenal... duh...)
In fact, I was initially thinking Trump's authorization of Soleimani's assassination may've been a mistake in the long run, the big loss having rallied the Iranian people behind their nationalistic war-cry of revenge just at the time some major cracks had started to appear in the ayatollah's regime. If you don't remember, I'll remind you that mass protests against poor governance and corruption had been ongoing at the time of that drone attack in Iraq.
But now that the Iranians have shot themselves in the foot pretty bad, things have quickly reverted to what they were before Soleimani's last trolling tweets at Trump had proven to be the last straw to break the camel's back, and make the Crazy Don get rid of the guy.
I'm not saying the regime in Iran is done at this point, far from it. But the overall effect is a win-win for Trump: Iran looks shaken, internal strife has resurfaced, they've lost their biggest power-broker, and Europe looks as irrelevant as ever.
On the other hand, I'm hearing theories that the happiest person from Soleimani's demise is actually... wait for it... his boss, the ayatollah! Because his primary general had amassed such huge influence throughout the region, being his right hand, etc, he had become way too dangerous for the mullahs in Tehran. In a way, getting Trump to do the job for them and rid them of their regime's most powerful war hero might actually be good news for them. Who knows!
Now there are mass protests in Iran, demanding accountability for the irresponsible mistake and mismanagement of their defense. (If being a little pissed is all it takes to make such deadly mistakes, I shudder to think that these guys actually do want to possess a nuclear arsenal... duh...)
In fact, I was initially thinking Trump's authorization of Soleimani's assassination may've been a mistake in the long run, the big loss having rallied the Iranian people behind their nationalistic war-cry of revenge just at the time some major cracks had started to appear in the ayatollah's regime. If you don't remember, I'll remind you that mass protests against poor governance and corruption had been ongoing at the time of that drone attack in Iraq.
But now that the Iranians have shot themselves in the foot pretty bad, things have quickly reverted to what they were before Soleimani's last trolling tweets at Trump had proven to be the last straw to break the camel's back, and make the Crazy Don get rid of the guy.
I'm not saying the regime in Iran is done at this point, far from it. But the overall effect is a win-win for Trump: Iran looks shaken, internal strife has resurfaced, they've lost their biggest power-broker, and Europe looks as irrelevant as ever.
On the other hand, I'm hearing theories that the happiest person from Soleimani's demise is actually... wait for it... his boss, the ayatollah! Because his primary general had amassed such huge influence throughout the region, being his right hand, etc, he had become way too dangerous for the mullahs in Tehran. In a way, getting Trump to do the job for them and rid them of their regime's most powerful war hero might actually be good news for them. Who knows!
(no subject)
Date: 13/1/20 13:59 (UTC)https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/donald-trump-gets-impeached-63-canadians-die/
Yeah, Trump made red-shirts out of my fellow citizens. I'm still not happy about that probability.
(no subject)
Date: 13/1/20 14:07 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/1/20 14:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 15/1/20 07:32 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/1/20 09:14 (UTC)