The Balkan Schengen
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talkpoliticsThe Balkan countries have quarreled with each other more often than not, always driven by their desire to push one another out of their way, including in their race towards EU membership. Which makes it even weirder that right now they seem determined to accomplish something big together, something one might even call a miracle:
Western Balkan Leaders Seek to Create Region Without Borders
That's because they're tired of waiting and being pushed around by Brussels:
The European Union’s future members are losing patience
Some may speculate that this is a new-Yugoslav federation in the making, which would be strange, given the animosity that these nations have had to each other ever since the old Yugoslav federation disintegrated. But whatever you might think, it's a fact that these countries are planning something really big. Let's remind of the French decision to veto the further EU membership talks with the Western Balkans (we discussed this here recently). Now at a time when more warnings are being heard of a potential new tension in the region, Serbia, Albania and N.Macedonia are doing big steps towards a possible unification.
For years, Brussels used to insist on a closer cooperation between the Balkan countries (last time was a couple years ago at the Balkan summit in Trieste). And now, when Brussels has stopped sending signals of hope for the Western Balkans, their cooperation might get a boost. In Ohrid, in N.Macedonia, a second consecutive Balkan summit within a month was held about two weeks ago. The three demonstrated very cordial relations, and they even invited the other three Balkan countries that the EU shunned, to join their new project. Surprisingly, this included Kosovo as well. But how's that even possible?
As usual, it's all about the economy, stupid. Cooperating, and creating links between the countries in the region is now more than urgent. The cargo trucks delivering goods from one country to another, are often forced to wait for hours at the borders. The customs tarrifs and bureaucratic obstacles are meant to protect the tiny markets against competition against their bigger neighbors.
The 100% tariff that Kosovo has imposed on the Serbian goods is kind of unique. There's nothing like this anywhere in the world. For private persons, traveling, especially in summer, often equals to a hurdle marathon. All of this reflects very negatively on the regional economies, and the investors consider these small economies with their meager purchase capabilities to be utterly uninteresting.
Like I said, the Balkan countries had a habit of pushing each other with fist and elbow along the way to the EU. But now they seem to have grown fed up with all this, and they want to try something new. Like, running together in the same direction. Last month, Serbian president Vucic and the Albanian and N.Macedonian prime ministers Rama and Zaev sat together and formulated their shared goal: introducing the 4 liberties that are inherent to the EU, into their region. Namely, the free movement of people, capitals, goods and services. This "mini Schengen" as Vucic called it, would allow visa-free traveling across the region, by simply using one's ID, as is the case throughout most of the EU. The specifics of this plan are supposed to be set up this weekend, and put to practice as early as 2021.
Still, let's not forget that the Balkans are still the Balkans. It's a special, unique place, where people's mentality is kind of incomprehensible for the rest of the world. So we shouldn't be surprised if we encounter some road blocks along the way. As usual, the devil is in the details. For instance, the borders between the three countries (which suddenly said they were friends) almost entirely encircle a fourth country, Kosovo. Smooth traveling from Serbia and Albania, as promised by Vucic, won't be as flawless as some might be hoping - unless you want to make huge detours around Kosovo. The problem could be solved if Kosovo itself gets included, of course, but there's this little detail that Serbia still refuses to recognize it as a country.
In this difficult dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, many of the problems that have to be solved, according to the declarations of the three leading countries in this Mini-EU still remain highly disputed, and only seem solvable in theory at this point. Not in reality. Like the mutual recognition of high-education diplomas. Exactly how 6 countries would manage to achieve what just 2 of them have been unable to achieve, remains a mystery.
Strictly speaking, the much desired customs union also faces some difficult obstacles. Even before Kosovo introduced its astronomic tariffs on Serbian goods, the Kosovo elite was concerned that the much bigger Serbian economy could suffocate the fledging Kosovo economy. And in turn, the much wealthier Montenegro was scared of the cheaper Serbian competition.
There's another question that seems unsolvable. How will the future customs union fit into the free-trade agreement that Serbia recently signed with Putin's Eurasian economic union? Will all Balkan countries be freely trading with Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia in the future? And how will the Eurasian free-trade zone match the Stability and Association Agreement that the Balkan countries have signed with the EU?
Of course, the core of this coveted "Balkan EU" is the Belgrade-Tirane axis. Three years ago, Vucic and his Albanian counterpart Rama promised the two nations had achieved a "historic reconciliation", which earned them lots of political support domestically. Except, the two countries never had any real problems between them, so there was nothing to "reconciliate" (Serbia's problem is with Kosovo, not Albania; and by the way, Kosovar Albanians are generally seen with suspicion in Albania-proper, despite the romantic Greater Albania dreams that some Albanians on both sides of the border might be harboring). On the other hand, if Serbia and Albania are united in some way, the seemingly unsolvable Kosovo question may turn out much easier to solve. A friendly Albania would be a much more reliable partner in negotiations about anything than stubborn Kosovo.
Rama, who considers himself "president of all Albanians", in turn gladly accepts the leadership role he's being offered. This way Kosovo's interests would be pushed to the sidelines somehow. The N.Macedonian president Zaev also knows exactly why he's joining this game: first, he needs to score a serious victory after the huge blow he suffered after Macron's refusal to allow further EU talks for N.Macedonia. And secondly, he should make sure Albania and Serbia don't unite at his expense, and worse, take over the influence over the Albanian minority within his country (which used to cause lots of problems a few years ago).
As we all know, miracles don't tend to happen too often. Even more so on the Balkans. But if some kind of miracle does happen around these latitudes anyway, the local mentality dictates that it should be perceived and explained through some kind of political witchcraft, i.e. a trick that conceals some other, more nefarious plans. What can I say. That's just us.
Western Balkan Leaders Seek to Create Region Without Borders
That's because they're tired of waiting and being pushed around by Brussels:
The European Union’s future members are losing patience
Some may speculate that this is a new-Yugoslav federation in the making, which would be strange, given the animosity that these nations have had to each other ever since the old Yugoslav federation disintegrated. But whatever you might think, it's a fact that these countries are planning something really big. Let's remind of the French decision to veto the further EU membership talks with the Western Balkans (we discussed this here recently). Now at a time when more warnings are being heard of a potential new tension in the region, Serbia, Albania and N.Macedonia are doing big steps towards a possible unification.
For years, Brussels used to insist on a closer cooperation between the Balkan countries (last time was a couple years ago at the Balkan summit in Trieste). And now, when Brussels has stopped sending signals of hope for the Western Balkans, their cooperation might get a boost. In Ohrid, in N.Macedonia, a second consecutive Balkan summit within a month was held about two weeks ago. The three demonstrated very cordial relations, and they even invited the other three Balkan countries that the EU shunned, to join their new project. Surprisingly, this included Kosovo as well. But how's that even possible?
As usual, it's all about the economy, stupid. Cooperating, and creating links between the countries in the region is now more than urgent. The cargo trucks delivering goods from one country to another, are often forced to wait for hours at the borders. The customs tarrifs and bureaucratic obstacles are meant to protect the tiny markets against competition against their bigger neighbors.
The 100% tariff that Kosovo has imposed on the Serbian goods is kind of unique. There's nothing like this anywhere in the world. For private persons, traveling, especially in summer, often equals to a hurdle marathon. All of this reflects very negatively on the regional economies, and the investors consider these small economies with their meager purchase capabilities to be utterly uninteresting.
Like I said, the Balkan countries had a habit of pushing each other with fist and elbow along the way to the EU. But now they seem to have grown fed up with all this, and they want to try something new. Like, running together in the same direction. Last month, Serbian president Vucic and the Albanian and N.Macedonian prime ministers Rama and Zaev sat together and formulated their shared goal: introducing the 4 liberties that are inherent to the EU, into their region. Namely, the free movement of people, capitals, goods and services. This "mini Schengen" as Vucic called it, would allow visa-free traveling across the region, by simply using one's ID, as is the case throughout most of the EU. The specifics of this plan are supposed to be set up this weekend, and put to practice as early as 2021.
Still, let's not forget that the Balkans are still the Balkans. It's a special, unique place, where people's mentality is kind of incomprehensible for the rest of the world. So we shouldn't be surprised if we encounter some road blocks along the way. As usual, the devil is in the details. For instance, the borders between the three countries (which suddenly said they were friends) almost entirely encircle a fourth country, Kosovo. Smooth traveling from Serbia and Albania, as promised by Vucic, won't be as flawless as some might be hoping - unless you want to make huge detours around Kosovo. The problem could be solved if Kosovo itself gets included, of course, but there's this little detail that Serbia still refuses to recognize it as a country.
In this difficult dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, many of the problems that have to be solved, according to the declarations of the three leading countries in this Mini-EU still remain highly disputed, and only seem solvable in theory at this point. Not in reality. Like the mutual recognition of high-education diplomas. Exactly how 6 countries would manage to achieve what just 2 of them have been unable to achieve, remains a mystery.
Strictly speaking, the much desired customs union also faces some difficult obstacles. Even before Kosovo introduced its astronomic tariffs on Serbian goods, the Kosovo elite was concerned that the much bigger Serbian economy could suffocate the fledging Kosovo economy. And in turn, the much wealthier Montenegro was scared of the cheaper Serbian competition.
There's another question that seems unsolvable. How will the future customs union fit into the free-trade agreement that Serbia recently signed with Putin's Eurasian economic union? Will all Balkan countries be freely trading with Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia in the future? And how will the Eurasian free-trade zone match the Stability and Association Agreement that the Balkan countries have signed with the EU?
Of course, the core of this coveted "Balkan EU" is the Belgrade-Tirane axis. Three years ago, Vucic and his Albanian counterpart Rama promised the two nations had achieved a "historic reconciliation", which earned them lots of political support domestically. Except, the two countries never had any real problems between them, so there was nothing to "reconciliate" (Serbia's problem is with Kosovo, not Albania; and by the way, Kosovar Albanians are generally seen with suspicion in Albania-proper, despite the romantic Greater Albania dreams that some Albanians on both sides of the border might be harboring). On the other hand, if Serbia and Albania are united in some way, the seemingly unsolvable Kosovo question may turn out much easier to solve. A friendly Albania would be a much more reliable partner in negotiations about anything than stubborn Kosovo.
Rama, who considers himself "president of all Albanians", in turn gladly accepts the leadership role he's being offered. This way Kosovo's interests would be pushed to the sidelines somehow. The N.Macedonian president Zaev also knows exactly why he's joining this game: first, he needs to score a serious victory after the huge blow he suffered after Macron's refusal to allow further EU talks for N.Macedonia. And secondly, he should make sure Albania and Serbia don't unite at his expense, and worse, take over the influence over the Albanian minority within his country (which used to cause lots of problems a few years ago).
As we all know, miracles don't tend to happen too often. Even more so on the Balkans. But if some kind of miracle does happen around these latitudes anyway, the local mentality dictates that it should be perceived and explained through some kind of political witchcraft, i.e. a trick that conceals some other, more nefarious plans. What can I say. That's just us.
