Germany: Change of the guard

[kiaa]

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer takes over the CDU leadership

That was probably Merkel's last political victory, although a bittersweet one, as she's going out soon. Her preferred candidate won the leadership in the CDU - and that shows Frau Merkel shouldn't be written out just yet. Although she's weakened, evidently she's still Germany's (and Europe's) most influential politician. Now she'll get a chance to calmly finish her term in 2021, and have the comfort to prepare her successor and preserve her legacy, rather than spend her last months in politics fighting both at home and abroad.

AKK's election for CDU leader means one thing: more of the same stuff. In other words, the party will keep the moderate, centrist course. It's also encouraging for Germany's partners in the EU. Just like Merkel, AKK has often said that the European agenda is at the core of her party. She has called for more cooperation within the EU, including on the issue of a European military, an idea that she shares with Macron. Although there's no guarantee that she'd be bolder than her predecessor on the economic front, or in her attempts to strengthen the eurozone. For instance, she wrote in her blog that she sees no upside in having a separate budget for the eurozone.

For those who thought the boredom and political stagnation that were so typical for the late Merkel era would persist, may've been surprisd by the lively debate at the CDU summit in Hamburg earlier this month. After the expected 10-minute standing applause that sent Merkel away, the 1000 delegates had to choose between two opposites. Just like many mainstream parties that have stood at a crossroads, the CDU had to choose between keeping the centrist course, and shifting to the right to stop the leak of votes towards the Alternative for Germany.

Respectively, there were two candidates that represented these two options. AKK was the "mini Merkel", moderate, pragmatic and cooperative; corporate lawyer Friedrich Merz, an old-time rival of Merkel's, insisted that the party should become far more conservative. Ultimately, after a tightly contested vote, the party chose the former. AKK was the safer choice. Merz proved a bit too much with his extreme stances on the free market, defense, and his closeness with America.

Now AKK's biggest challenge is to emancipate herself from her predecessor, and shed the "mini Merkel" label. She herself said as much during her acception speech, arguing that she's a 56 year old woman with two grown-up children and a career of her own, so there's nothing "mini" about her.

Indeed, even if she does share the same vibe with Merkel, a pragmatic approach and an instinct for compromise and cooperation, there are also some significant differences. AKK is a bit more liberal socially, she supports the introduction of a minimum wage, etc. On the social front though, AKK (who's Catholic and comes from Saarland) is much more conservative than Merkel (Protestant, from former DDR). She's against abortions, she's suspicious about genetic engineering, and she has reportedly compared same-sex marriages to poligamy and incest. Although she was loyal enough to support Merkel's 2015 decision to open the borders for migrants, as a PM of the tiny province of Saarland she issued a decree that minors who arrived at the border without an adult supervisor and without documents should be subjected to mandatory medical tests to determine their age, and she also lobbied in berlin that people who were denied asylum shouldn't stay for a day longer, and should be derported back.

So far, AKK has only had experience in provincial politics. She's been in Berlin only since February, when Merkel nominated her for CDU leader, thus giving a sign that she wanted her for successor. Very littly is known about AKK's ideas on international politics, and her diplomatic experience is close to zero. But it's clear that a lady whose home is just a few kilometers away from the French border and who's practically bilingual, would be true to the idea that the French-German partnership should remain at the core of the EU.

Apart from AKK, the other apparent winner in Hamburg was Merkel, who'll now have the luxury to work with someone who's a close ideological ally, and who doesn't insist to kick her out of the government ASAP - something that would've happened for sure if Friedrich Merz had won.

But AKK's first task, even before eyeing the highest chair in Berlin, would be to prevent the split-up of her party. Her close victory (517 votes against 482) shows just how divided the CDU is right now. Merz' defeat, who was supported by a number of grey cardinals, former finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble among them, plus a number of business organizations, has already triggered an avalanche of resignations from disgruntled CDU members who believe the party has missed an excellent opportunity to revive and reform itself. But the CDU has shown time and time again that it always manages to rally behind its leader, and Schaeuble has already hinted in an interview for Das Bild that "anyone who plans a revenge, is mistaken".

Besides, the voters don't seem to share the disillusion with Merkel and her protege, because 2/3 of the Germans still want their Chancellor to finish her entire term, and the latest Forsa poll after the CDU congress in Hamburg has shown a slight surge in the party's support beyond 30% for the first time in a while. But despite these encouraging signals it's clear that AKK would only be able to united the CDU if she has some success against the far-right Alternative for Germany, part of whose success could squarely be blamed on Merkel's policies.

As for the Chancellor herself, whether she'll remain such until 2021 may depend more on her partner in the government, the SDP, rather than her own party. If the Social-Democrats get routed at the EU elections next year, they may have to leave the ruling coalition, as it's evidently hurting them too much. And then AKK would have to take the reins sooner than expected - not only of her party, but the entire country. So she better be prepared.