Brexit without a deal?
23/9/18 00:36![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsLots of burdens, and huge expenses for Britain. That's how we could summarize the consequences for the UK if no agreement is reached on the Brexit. Mrs May's government published details about the probable scenarios earlier this week. So here are some of the major dangers.
First, there's no guarantee that Britons wouldn't be billed crazy money for using their cellphones abroad, although some companies are now vowing to keep prices unchanged. When driving a car abroad, UK citizens will need the international driving permit. If they decide to travel for the weekend and they make the decision at the last moment, they'll need at least 6 months remaining of validity on their passport.
If there's no deal, lots of goods that have been tested in the UK after the Brexit will have to go through the same procedure again in the EU. If a car or car parts are produced in the UK, they'll have to apply for license in the EU separately, and prove they match the eco and safety standards of the EU. British pharma companies will have to get licenses worth thousands of pounds if they're to sell their goods in the EU. All UK ships will have to apply for license, no matter where in the EU they're traveling to.
The list is very long, as you might've guessed by now. But some of the more important things are still not included there. Like, what will happen with planes flying between UK and EU?
Publishing these expectations and warnings while there's still no end of the negotiations, is Mrs May's strategy to look as if her government is somehow prepared for the consequences of a potentially failed negotiation. But what they're omitting to mention is how much money will have to be paid to the EU in such a case. She's constantly saying that the supposed 40 billion pounds wouldn't be paid entirely, but she's refusing to assess what the amount would actually be if a no-agreement Brexit does happen. In reality, the possible price of such a scenario would be much steeper, and would take many years to be agreed upon.
The UK government keeps insisting that the likelihood for such a scenario is small. They're hoping the EU meeting in Salzburg next week will add a new momentum to the ongoing negotiations. The UK hopes that they'll get concessions on the issue of the Irish land border, one of the most contentious topics. But that's hardly a given. Besides, some conservative MPs will clearly oppose Mrs May's plan.
There are two scenarios. One (and less likely), the UK and EU never reaching a deal, then May returning home and saying, "Sorry, I tried". And two, she does get some sort of deal, but her party and parliament reject it. In both cases, chaos is guaranteed.
First, there's no guarantee that Britons wouldn't be billed crazy money for using their cellphones abroad, although some companies are now vowing to keep prices unchanged. When driving a car abroad, UK citizens will need the international driving permit. If they decide to travel for the weekend and they make the decision at the last moment, they'll need at least 6 months remaining of validity on their passport.
If there's no deal, lots of goods that have been tested in the UK after the Brexit will have to go through the same procedure again in the EU. If a car or car parts are produced in the UK, they'll have to apply for license in the EU separately, and prove they match the eco and safety standards of the EU. British pharma companies will have to get licenses worth thousands of pounds if they're to sell their goods in the EU. All UK ships will have to apply for license, no matter where in the EU they're traveling to.
The list is very long, as you might've guessed by now. But some of the more important things are still not included there. Like, what will happen with planes flying between UK and EU?
Publishing these expectations and warnings while there's still no end of the negotiations, is Mrs May's strategy to look as if her government is somehow prepared for the consequences of a potentially failed negotiation. But what they're omitting to mention is how much money will have to be paid to the EU in such a case. She's constantly saying that the supposed 40 billion pounds wouldn't be paid entirely, but she's refusing to assess what the amount would actually be if a no-agreement Brexit does happen. In reality, the possible price of such a scenario would be much steeper, and would take many years to be agreed upon.
The UK government keeps insisting that the likelihood for such a scenario is small. They're hoping the EU meeting in Salzburg next week will add a new momentum to the ongoing negotiations. The UK hopes that they'll get concessions on the issue of the Irish land border, one of the most contentious topics. But that's hardly a given. Besides, some conservative MPs will clearly oppose Mrs May's plan.
There are two scenarios. One (and less likely), the UK and EU never reaching a deal, then May returning home and saying, "Sorry, I tried". And two, she does get some sort of deal, but her party and parliament reject it. In both cases, chaos is guaranteed.
(no subject)
Date: 23/9/18 06:22 (UTC)I think Cameron should congratulate himself. His premiership has left such an impressive legacy I doubt he could ever go unrecognised again.
(no subject)
Date: 25/9/18 00:06 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/9/18 11:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/9/18 12:11 (UTC)Clearly there are still defects in communication that need worked out and I am willing to work on my part of that.
(no subject)
Date: 25/9/18 13:06 (UTC)