Why not knock it down then?
31/8/17 16:16![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsThe regime in North Korea launched another mid-range ballistic missile the other day, and it was confirmed that it flew over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido and finally landed in the Pacific. Kim Jong Un was of course present at the launch, and all of NK's neighbours of course declared the act a provocation against the most powerful military in the world, and its allies (also very developed countries).
One might like to ask themselves, if all those allies are so developed, why didn't they at least attempt to shoot down one of those missiles? It's not like there haven't been plenty of calls in that direction, from retired generals like Chuck Wald to much of the Japanese public itself. There were many angry comments in Japan following the launch, people being dismayed that their government had not responded in any way.
South Korea, which is on the path to Guam (NK's apparent first target) is supplied with a modern THAAD system. Another system, AEGIS is present in Japanese, South Korean and US ships throughout the Pacific. Given these enormous capabilities for downing any missile, why wouldn't this be considered as a viable middle option between doing nothing (the sanctions obviously do not work) and an outright war?
Well, although NATO's arsenal does look impressive, in fact there are no guarantees that if you aim at one of those NK missiles, you would shoot it down 100%. Granted, these technologies have been developed very intensively for the last three decades, but they are still not perfectly fail-proof. In other words, there is a significant risk that they might miss their target. And that would be a huge propaganda victory for Kim.
Another obvious risk is that NK may interpret such an act as an open act of war, and escalate.
But there is also a hidden benefit from doing nothing at this stage of the standoff. Every time North Korea launches a missile they test its capabilities, but more importantly, it exposes its technologies to surveillance and examination by their enemies. Lots of telemetric data gets downloaded during the flight, and the debris gets collected by the US ships. There are huge amounts of intel contained in every launch. and not least important, every launch gives an ounce of extra information about NK's general strategy. So it may really be wisest to just let them launch whaver they have, and watch closely. It's not like they are aiming it at any populated areas - for now.
One might like to ask themselves, if all those allies are so developed, why didn't they at least attempt to shoot down one of those missiles? It's not like there haven't been plenty of calls in that direction, from retired generals like Chuck Wald to much of the Japanese public itself. There were many angry comments in Japan following the launch, people being dismayed that their government had not responded in any way.
South Korea, which is on the path to Guam (NK's apparent first target) is supplied with a modern THAAD system. Another system, AEGIS is present in Japanese, South Korean and US ships throughout the Pacific. Given these enormous capabilities for downing any missile, why wouldn't this be considered as a viable middle option between doing nothing (the sanctions obviously do not work) and an outright war?
Well, although NATO's arsenal does look impressive, in fact there are no guarantees that if you aim at one of those NK missiles, you would shoot it down 100%. Granted, these technologies have been developed very intensively for the last three decades, but they are still not perfectly fail-proof. In other words, there is a significant risk that they might miss their target. And that would be a huge propaganda victory for Kim.
Another obvious risk is that NK may interpret such an act as an open act of war, and escalate.
But there is also a hidden benefit from doing nothing at this stage of the standoff. Every time North Korea launches a missile they test its capabilities, but more importantly, it exposes its technologies to surveillance and examination by their enemies. Lots of telemetric data gets downloaded during the flight, and the debris gets collected by the US ships. There are huge amounts of intel contained in every launch. and not least important, every launch gives an ounce of extra information about NK's general strategy. So it may really be wisest to just let them launch whaver they have, and watch closely. It's not like they are aiming it at any populated areas - for now.
(no subject)
Date: 1/9/17 10:53 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 1/9/17 23:10 (UTC)I would add that allowing North Korea to fire a lot of showy but ultimately harmless missiles into the ocean serves to isolate them further in the world community and, possibly, in China's eyes.
Basically, Kim Jong-un was pulling Trump's schtick well before Trump managed to con his way into office. He's unpredictable, but the world has learned not to take him too seriously.