Even if THAAD worked perfectly in that scenario, I don't think it would stop the US from striking the North.
Eventually, the North is going to collapse. Do any of us think that collapse can be managed?
[crickets]
Let's say the Kim family self destructs, some unforeseen disaster implodes the government and the people finally have literally nothing left to lose. Then what? This is the only society since ancient Egypt to take the idea of a god-king seriously. Those nukes are going to fly. But they won't be the big story. Chances are they will fizzle, go off course, or get shot down by Aegis cruisers or the THAAD systems coming online now. No. The artillery barrage that will level Seoul will be the story. And there is no THAAD system to stop a artillery shell and the North has them in spades. It is simple, well understood, cheap technology that will, in about 30 minutes time, kill tens of thousands of South Koreans and not a few Americans, too.
This is a bipartisan, multilateral clusterfuck 65 years in the making. Honestly, kicking the can down the road might really be the best case scenario.
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Date: 11/7/17 16:49 (UTC)Eventually, the North is going to collapse. Do any of us think that collapse can be managed?
[crickets]
Let's say the Kim family self destructs, some unforeseen disaster implodes the government and the people finally have literally nothing left to lose. Then what? This is the only society since ancient Egypt to take the idea of a god-king seriously. Those nukes are going to fly. But they won't be the big story. Chances are they will fizzle, go off course, or get shot down by Aegis cruisers or the THAAD systems coming online now. No. The artillery barrage that will level Seoul will be the story. And there is no THAAD system to stop a artillery shell and the North has them in spades. It is simple, well understood, cheap technology that will, in about 30 minutes time, kill tens of thousands of South Koreans and not a few Americans, too.
This is a bipartisan, multilateral clusterfuck 65 years in the making. Honestly, kicking the can down the road might really be the best case scenario.