Not quite together
21/6/16 13:26![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsHere's the thing. UK's possible exit from the EU could cause an unprecedented shock that's hard to predict, possibly with global consequences.
The question these days is if England would leave the Euro'16 or the EU first. In the former case, it'll be only the football fans who'd suffer - for a while. But that wouldn't be anything unusual: England has often exited big championships early, despite always featuring among the favorites to win trophies. Option 2 would be more damaging, and could cause ripples across the whole world.
Some are downplaying the storm that's coming, saying nothing would really change that much, since the UK has always been "special" in its position within the EU, always trying to emancipate itself to some extent. But think about it. Why do nearly half of all Britons want to exit the EU? The question is much deeper here. They want out because Brussels is meddling in their domestic affairs too much, and they're proud people who are used to being independent (actually some still remember the time when the world was dependent on them, although that may not necessarily be true any more). They also don't like the notion that any European should be able to arrive in Britain and work and live there, "taking British jobs" (you know that sort of narrative too well). They also don't feel like paying 6 billion euros into the EU budget on a yearly basis, money that someone else would then waste. Even if the EU ends up being a Europe of two speeds (first-class and second-class members), many Britons still think their country would be in the disadvantageous position.
By the way, that's a separation that's been hanging over the EU like a dark shadow. Because, even if the Dutch don't want a Dutchxit (sic?) referendum just yet, many of them are thinking in a way that's similar to the UK. And these moods require a major change, one that would happen anyway, whether the UK exits or not. If everyone starts demanding concessions and exceptions and starts feeling special, the risk of a two-Europes scenario would become real. And some countries would remain in the periphery. And that could push them into other geopolitical orbits in result, including the Russian one (just look at Hungary). Less Europe would also mean the push for more reform in those peripheral (and less developed) young democracies would decrease. And vacuum can never exist for too long. That void would have to be filled with something at some point. Authoritarianism, most likely. Since it's what these societies have known for a long time, and their authoritarian instincts haven't died out completely. And that's bad news for Europe and the West.
The one certain thing is that regardless of the results of the referendum on June 23, on June 24 the UK would still be a EU member. Simply because the Brexit can't happen overnight. So the quesiton is, what the specific conditions of the UK/EU divorce would be. Because there's a whole array of domains where the question marks remain looming: in terms of politics, the economy, and Britain's future in the global economy. The fact that the return rate of the 10-year German bonds has dropped below zero last week, and is now at -0.008%, is just one of the signs of the incoming turmoil. This practically means that the investors are so uneasy from the impending chaos, they're prepared to be paying Germany to keep their money safe, returns be damned.
Even if the referendum fails, Europe's sigh of relief won't last long. The horrific murder of Labour MP Jo Cox, an active supporter of the pro-EU campaign, could tip the scales toward opting for avoiding taking sharper turns - but such an outcome still wouldn't solve any of the pressing issues. With or without Britain, the EU can't keep being run through crisis management forever. The "more Europe" adage now looks increasingly hollow and empty of meaning, and it's not a solution to anything. The Euroskeptic populists in all corners of the continent would still keep pushing, even if the Brexit fails. They won't just go away. If the EU wants to survive, it's got to come up with a far more inclusive and attractive offer to its citizens.
All forecasts (save for those that the Brexit campaign are waving around) suggest a massive legal and regulatory chaos, financial turbulences, recession and huge political damages if the Brexit happens. But the biggest victim of all would be the idea that European integration is irreversible. Apart from the practical consequences from the loss of one EU's major economies, that would cause a psychological trauma as well. As the chief of staff of the EC president Juncker recently described the larger picture, G7 in 2017, with Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, Boris Johnson and Beppe Grillo? Sounds like "a horror scenario that shows well why it is worth fighting populism".
So even if the UK doesn't succumb to illusions of grandeur and doesn't buy into the false notion that it'd be better off alone, it would still never be the same from now on. It'll be a marked EU member, one with a "half-detached" status (they'd like to think of it as being a "special" status). The agreement that Cameron negotiated with Brussels in February (which would go into effect if the pro-EU camp wins the referendum) will practically cause the UK to self-isolate from key European policies, and give it an excuse to free itself of the obligation to tighten the bonds with the rest of the continent. That would fundamentally change the UK-EU relations in a way that would ultimately harm both sides.
The question these days is if England would leave the Euro'16 or the EU first. In the former case, it'll be only the football fans who'd suffer - for a while. But that wouldn't be anything unusual: England has often exited big championships early, despite always featuring among the favorites to win trophies. Option 2 would be more damaging, and could cause ripples across the whole world.
Some are downplaying the storm that's coming, saying nothing would really change that much, since the UK has always been "special" in its position within the EU, always trying to emancipate itself to some extent. But think about it. Why do nearly half of all Britons want to exit the EU? The question is much deeper here. They want out because Brussels is meddling in their domestic affairs too much, and they're proud people who are used to being independent (actually some still remember the time when the world was dependent on them, although that may not necessarily be true any more). They also don't like the notion that any European should be able to arrive in Britain and work and live there, "taking British jobs" (you know that sort of narrative too well). They also don't feel like paying 6 billion euros into the EU budget on a yearly basis, money that someone else would then waste. Even if the EU ends up being a Europe of two speeds (first-class and second-class members), many Britons still think their country would be in the disadvantageous position.
By the way, that's a separation that's been hanging over the EU like a dark shadow. Because, even if the Dutch don't want a Dutchxit (sic?) referendum just yet, many of them are thinking in a way that's similar to the UK. And these moods require a major change, one that would happen anyway, whether the UK exits or not. If everyone starts demanding concessions and exceptions and starts feeling special, the risk of a two-Europes scenario would become real. And some countries would remain in the periphery. And that could push them into other geopolitical orbits in result, including the Russian one (just look at Hungary). Less Europe would also mean the push for more reform in those peripheral (and less developed) young democracies would decrease. And vacuum can never exist for too long. That void would have to be filled with something at some point. Authoritarianism, most likely. Since it's what these societies have known for a long time, and their authoritarian instincts haven't died out completely. And that's bad news for Europe and the West.
The one certain thing is that regardless of the results of the referendum on June 23, on June 24 the UK would still be a EU member. Simply because the Brexit can't happen overnight. So the quesiton is, what the specific conditions of the UK/EU divorce would be. Because there's a whole array of domains where the question marks remain looming: in terms of politics, the economy, and Britain's future in the global economy. The fact that the return rate of the 10-year German bonds has dropped below zero last week, and is now at -0.008%, is just one of the signs of the incoming turmoil. This practically means that the investors are so uneasy from the impending chaos, they're prepared to be paying Germany to keep their money safe, returns be damned.
Even if the referendum fails, Europe's sigh of relief won't last long. The horrific murder of Labour MP Jo Cox, an active supporter of the pro-EU campaign, could tip the scales toward opting for avoiding taking sharper turns - but such an outcome still wouldn't solve any of the pressing issues. With or without Britain, the EU can't keep being run through crisis management forever. The "more Europe" adage now looks increasingly hollow and empty of meaning, and it's not a solution to anything. The Euroskeptic populists in all corners of the continent would still keep pushing, even if the Brexit fails. They won't just go away. If the EU wants to survive, it's got to come up with a far more inclusive and attractive offer to its citizens.
All forecasts (save for those that the Brexit campaign are waving around) suggest a massive legal and regulatory chaos, financial turbulences, recession and huge political damages if the Brexit happens. But the biggest victim of all would be the idea that European integration is irreversible. Apart from the practical consequences from the loss of one EU's major economies, that would cause a psychological trauma as well. As the chief of staff of the EC president Juncker recently described the larger picture, G7 in 2017, with Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, Boris Johnson and Beppe Grillo? Sounds like "a horror scenario that shows well why it is worth fighting populism".
So even if the UK doesn't succumb to illusions of grandeur and doesn't buy into the false notion that it'd be better off alone, it would still never be the same from now on. It'll be a marked EU member, one with a "half-detached" status (they'd like to think of it as being a "special" status). The agreement that Cameron negotiated with Brussels in February (which would go into effect if the pro-EU camp wins the referendum) will practically cause the UK to self-isolate from key European policies, and give it an excuse to free itself of the obligation to tighten the bonds with the rest of the continent. That would fundamentally change the UK-EU relations in a way that would ultimately harm both sides.
(no subject)
Date: 21/6/16 13:44 (UTC)Jo Cox' murder, a false-flag operation by the pro-EU camp? That sort of tinfoil stuff was bound to start popping up.
(no subject)
Date: 21/6/16 19:42 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 22/6/16 17:23 (UTC)