Putin's new Guard
23/5/16 16:50![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsLast week the Russian Duma (parliament) voted on the creation of a new paramilitary police formation. That's part of Putin's plan to accelerate the reform of the police force that he announced last month:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35975840
It was initially intended to call this new group the National Guard. But there were voices that said this sounded "too Western", while others made a parallel to the Ukrainian National Guard that was created a couple of years ago for fighting the pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass. And we don't want to have any similarities with evil fascist Ukraine now, do we? Eventually, the bill featured the term Rosguard (Russian Guard). Yeah, Russians are kind of fond of packing a few words into one if you haven't noticed by now.
Anyway. The new police formation will be using resources from the Internal Military which is under the umbrella of the Ministry of the Interior rather than the Ministry of Defense. Furthermore, some special police task force units like Omon will be transferred to the Guard. Those who are somewhat well-versed in these matters project a total personnel of 300-400 thousand in the Guard. Of course, no official data on the issue is available at this point, but that's not important. The real issue here is that unlike other similar formations from the past, the Guard will now directly answer to the president himself.
Former deputy minister of the interior and commander of the Internal Military, Viktor Zolotov was placed at the reins there. He's Putin's former personal bodyguard, and one of his closest aides. Just like Putin, Zolotov has also worked at the KGB. In the 90s he was responsible for the safety of Saint-Petersburg mayor Sobchak, and his deputy Putin. After the latter became prime-minister in '99, Zolotov became his personal bodyguard. And in 2000, when Putin became president, he was appointed commander of the presidential Security Service, where he has served for 10 years.
Placing Zolotov at the top of the new service means that it'll be a direct tool for enforcing Putin's personal interests. There's a quiet power struggle of some sorts going on in Russia right now, but there's also a weird form of, let's call it, "pluralism of the elites". This provides Putin with the tools to intervene as an arbiter wherever necessary (or wherever beneficial for him, depending on your standpoint), and thus keep all his friends and rivals at a safe distance, while maintaining a balance through the divide-and-rule principle.
But back to the Rosguard. Many people in Russia are asking themselves what the true purpose of its creation might be. Putin himself claims it would allow the country to "answer to the new challenges it stands against", whatever that's supposed to mean. The bill is a bit more eloquent, though: it grants the Guard the prerogative to act on behalf of the government in fighting terrorism, guarding places of particular significance of the national security, but also to "ensure order in extraordinary situations". This last bit practically means that the Guard could be used to quash unrest, disperse protests and rallies that the president doesn't like (conveniently declaring them "disruptive", "terrorist", "foreign elements" or whatever the hell he pleases). The Guard will be able to use firearms without warning, search homes without a warrant, interrupt or intercept mobile communications, etc.
Granted, some of these taks are not a new thing. Even now the Russian police is firmly behind Putin. Some are asking why the same prerogatives couldn't be granted to the police, and why a special Guard had to be established for that purpose. There's no doubt the authorities could quash any dissent at any given time if they wanted - in fact, they've done so on more than one occasion in recent times.
There are speculations that the Guard is being prepared to be used for a possible crackdown on potential protests after this autumn't upcoming parliamentary elections, and 2018's presidential election. Given the deteriorating Russian economy, such protests are not to be ruled out at all, although the majority of Russians still seems firmly supportive of Putin. I suspect the Guard's main task will be to not allow anything resembling a "color revolution" in Russia, like those in Georgia and Ukraine. Putin may seem strong as of now, be he sure is not dumb - and he'll make sure to prepare himself for any situations, including mass uprisings and popular unrest.
The elite units like Omon are spread thin across the vast country, so they don't have the needed concentration and resources. The Internal Military mostly consists of conscripted youngsters, not professional soldiers. The new reform solves this issue by making the internal military professional.
The second reason for this move is that this new Guard will be Putin's personal army, which will have to protect him from an internal coup. Such a scenario has been whispered around for a long time, although there are no clear indications or evidence of such subversive activity.
And finally, some media in the Land of the Conspiracy Junkies have naturally come up with more exotic explanations: you see, the Rosguard is meant to be used as a tool against rogue Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. The North Caucasus Republic, part of the Russian Federation, Kadyrov has already created a strong police army that answers personally to him, and this unit will now have to be infused into the Rosguard, essentially placing it under Putin's control. This way, any possible Kadyrov aspirations for breaking loose will be quashed while it's early enough.
Of course, the official task, namely preemptive action against terrorism, shouldn't be overlooked, either. After all, Putin doesn't want some bearded turban-clad extremists coming from the south and causing trouble in his utopian land. It's no secret that Russia is among the most threatened countries in terms of terrorist activity. Lots of Russian citizens have joined the Islamic State, and have vowed to bring its jihad to Russia. But that's just one of the reasons that Putin is so eager to surround himself with an ironclad cocoon.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35975840
It was initially intended to call this new group the National Guard. But there were voices that said this sounded "too Western", while others made a parallel to the Ukrainian National Guard that was created a couple of years ago for fighting the pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass. And we don't want to have any similarities with evil fascist Ukraine now, do we? Eventually, the bill featured the term Rosguard (Russian Guard). Yeah, Russians are kind of fond of packing a few words into one if you haven't noticed by now.
Anyway. The new police formation will be using resources from the Internal Military which is under the umbrella of the Ministry of the Interior rather than the Ministry of Defense. Furthermore, some special police task force units like Omon will be transferred to the Guard. Those who are somewhat well-versed in these matters project a total personnel of 300-400 thousand in the Guard. Of course, no official data on the issue is available at this point, but that's not important. The real issue here is that unlike other similar formations from the past, the Guard will now directly answer to the president himself.
Former deputy minister of the interior and commander of the Internal Military, Viktor Zolotov was placed at the reins there. He's Putin's former personal bodyguard, and one of his closest aides. Just like Putin, Zolotov has also worked at the KGB. In the 90s he was responsible for the safety of Saint-Petersburg mayor Sobchak, and his deputy Putin. After the latter became prime-minister in '99, Zolotov became his personal bodyguard. And in 2000, when Putin became president, he was appointed commander of the presidential Security Service, where he has served for 10 years.
Placing Zolotov at the top of the new service means that it'll be a direct tool for enforcing Putin's personal interests. There's a quiet power struggle of some sorts going on in Russia right now, but there's also a weird form of, let's call it, "pluralism of the elites". This provides Putin with the tools to intervene as an arbiter wherever necessary (or wherever beneficial for him, depending on your standpoint), and thus keep all his friends and rivals at a safe distance, while maintaining a balance through the divide-and-rule principle.
But back to the Rosguard. Many people in Russia are asking themselves what the true purpose of its creation might be. Putin himself claims it would allow the country to "answer to the new challenges it stands against", whatever that's supposed to mean. The bill is a bit more eloquent, though: it grants the Guard the prerogative to act on behalf of the government in fighting terrorism, guarding places of particular significance of the national security, but also to "ensure order in extraordinary situations". This last bit practically means that the Guard could be used to quash unrest, disperse protests and rallies that the president doesn't like (conveniently declaring them "disruptive", "terrorist", "foreign elements" or whatever the hell he pleases). The Guard will be able to use firearms without warning, search homes without a warrant, interrupt or intercept mobile communications, etc.
Granted, some of these taks are not a new thing. Even now the Russian police is firmly behind Putin. Some are asking why the same prerogatives couldn't be granted to the police, and why a special Guard had to be established for that purpose. There's no doubt the authorities could quash any dissent at any given time if they wanted - in fact, they've done so on more than one occasion in recent times.
There are speculations that the Guard is being prepared to be used for a possible crackdown on potential protests after this autumn't upcoming parliamentary elections, and 2018's presidential election. Given the deteriorating Russian economy, such protests are not to be ruled out at all, although the majority of Russians still seems firmly supportive of Putin. I suspect the Guard's main task will be to not allow anything resembling a "color revolution" in Russia, like those in Georgia and Ukraine. Putin may seem strong as of now, be he sure is not dumb - and he'll make sure to prepare himself for any situations, including mass uprisings and popular unrest.
The elite units like Omon are spread thin across the vast country, so they don't have the needed concentration and resources. The Internal Military mostly consists of conscripted youngsters, not professional soldiers. The new reform solves this issue by making the internal military professional.
The second reason for this move is that this new Guard will be Putin's personal army, which will have to protect him from an internal coup. Such a scenario has been whispered around for a long time, although there are no clear indications or evidence of such subversive activity.
And finally, some media in the Land of the Conspiracy Junkies have naturally come up with more exotic explanations: you see, the Rosguard is meant to be used as a tool against rogue Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. The North Caucasus Republic, part of the Russian Federation, Kadyrov has already created a strong police army that answers personally to him, and this unit will now have to be infused into the Rosguard, essentially placing it under Putin's control. This way, any possible Kadyrov aspirations for breaking loose will be quashed while it's early enough.
Of course, the official task, namely preemptive action against terrorism, shouldn't be overlooked, either. After all, Putin doesn't want some bearded turban-clad extremists coming from the south and causing trouble in his utopian land. It's no secret that Russia is among the most threatened countries in terms of terrorist activity. Lots of Russian citizens have joined the Islamic State, and have vowed to bring its jihad to Russia. But that's just one of the reasons that Putin is so eager to surround himself with an ironclad cocoon.
(no subject)
Date: 23/5/16 18:26 (UTC)