A crumbling nation

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Last week Venezuelan president Maduro extended the state of emergency that he had previously imposed, and this week new draconian measures and extended government prerogatives were announced. The economy is a train-wreck. Because of poor management, corruption, and of course the low oil prices. Venezuela is in deep political crisis, and the socialist government has chosen to react with muscle-flexing. More out of desperation rather than any clear plan. They refuse to budge an inch in their power struggle with the opposition. All in all, Venezuela is in a dire situation.

But exactly for how long Maduro could hold against the pressure is not very clear. The risk is that the country could become absolutely uncontrollable if the power struggle persists. Right now, it seems Venezuela is sliding fast towards civil war. And the hypothetical intervention of foreign agents could no longer serve as an excuse. It's just that this particular country has been so heavily dependent on the international oil markets that it started sliding down at the first opportunity. And, as politically unstable as it is, that wasn't too hard to achieve.

There's also a chain reaction starting to unfold throughout Latin America. Until recently, Venezuela used to invest a lot of oil revenue into various leftist allies from Cuba to Nicaragua. But right now, there's a dramatic change of direction going on in South America. Since December, Argentina is no longer under the control of the leftist Peronista, and in Brazil, the 13-year rule of the Workers Party has now practically been snapped short, what with Dilma Rousseff's impeachment procedure entering an advanced stage. All of these regimes were the foreign pillars upon which Maduro's own regime rested. Now that both the economic foundation of his rule and his international allies have been removed, there's practically nothing to hold him in position.

All the while, the end of the suffering of the people of Venezuela being nowhere near in sight.

Comments

[oportet.livejournal.com]

Economy is a train wreck? Maduro is worth over 300 million. Chavez' daughter - possibly over 4 billion. Assuming they've already spread the wealth out among everyone - I'd say they must be thriving, not crumbling....

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Assuming they've already spread the wealth out among everyone

Haha!

They forgot the most important step!?

[oportet.livejournal.com]

Margaret Thatcher said that the trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money.

I would compare it to a pyramid scheme - but that wouldn't be fair to pyramid schemes - at least they give you a shot at moving up a little.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

You speak from personal experience rather than theory, I take it? What was life like in a socialist society? ;-)

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[oportet.livejournal.com]

I haven't mentioned or implied personal experience. I'll let the Venezuelans here explain (be patient, might have to wait for a power blackout to end)

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

You sounded very convincing, so I had to ask.

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[dreamville-bg.livejournal.com]

Why don't you ask the Danes to explain how they cope with life in an unsustainable society?

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

I've been living in a failed state and I didn't even realize it. Go figure.

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[dreamville-bg.livejournal.com]

It gets weirder. My country has been in a constant state of sliding down towards a banana republic status ever since it abolished socialism. Thanks Obama!

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

Apparently the center-right PM of Denmark takes issue with this description (http://www.govexec.com/management/2015/11/denmark-we-are-not-socialist-utopia-bernie-sanders-thinks-we-are/123319/):

“I know that some people in the US associate the Nordic model with some sort of socialism. Therefore I would like to make one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy.”

Of course, with the metric conversion, I'm not sure where a Danish center-right politician would fall on the US scale, but it seems to the right of Sanders is a safe bet.

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[dreamville-bg.livejournal.com]

By the Imperial metric system or whatever you call your political spectrum, anything anywhere outside of the US is "too socialist".

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

Whatever keeps the Imperial in the Empire baby!

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Which socialism exactly. Soviet socialism, Latin American socialism, Scandinavian socialism, French socialism, Greek socialism, Arab socialism, North Korean socialism, Chinese socialism, or that vagueness that Bernie Sanders keeps blabbering about and calls it socialism? Because it's unclear which one you might be having in mind right now.

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[oportet.livejournal.com]

Latin American/21st Century......the kind they're using there....the kind that ends poverty and economic oppresion and such...

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

So which socialism would you compare to a pyramid? Specifically Latin American socialism, or socialism of all stripes?

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[oportet.livejournal.com]

Again, I'm talking about the one we're talking about - the one this post was about.

Why is he the highest paid world leader? Why is the last leaders daughter worth 4 billion? Why aren't they sharing?

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Because they're capitalists in disguise? ;)

They're No True Socialists(TM)!

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

I'd be cautious to ascribe Venezuela's failure to socialism, rather than the incompetent way it has been run for decades. Not because socialism isn't a flawed system (like any other system, btw), but probably because some societies who've tried their own forms of it (albeit calling it with slightly modified names, like "social democracy", etc), and who've had way better outcomes than Venezuela, might beg to differ.

I wouldn't presume to take Margaret Thatcher's word as Gospel much, either.

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

I actually wouldn't be blaming socialism either. Venezuela was doomed by incompetence, corruption, violence, and having lots of oil. Of course incompetent people implementing socialism in a country which has historically been rather corrupt and dependent on oil doesn't seem like a great idea to begin with.

I would, however, question the judgement of some politicians (http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/British-MP-Jeremy-Corbyn-Speaks-Out-For-Venezuela-20150605-0033.html) who continued to support the Venezuelan regime even after (http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/10430) it was clear they were corrupt, authoritarians who were steering Venezuela towards disaster. Chavez and Maduro's governments couldn't have caused this much damage without the support (http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2366572&CategoryId=10717) they've enjoyed.

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

I think any society that relies 90% on oil production to sustain itself is doomed to follow the same scenario, be it socialist or not. Some, sooner than others.

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

Yes, of course. Then again, Venezuela has become more dependent on oil since Chavez and company took over and started nationalizing stuff. Before, oil was responsible for about 3/4ths of Venezuela's exports, now it's responsible for about 24/25ths. There has also been a drop in production for domestic use as well.

While I wouldn't say the collapse of Venezuela was caused by socialism, it certainly made things worse and the Venezuelan government got quite a bit of international support from folks who were willing to overlook a corrupt and authoritarian regime as long as they said the right things.

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[oportet.livejournal.com]

I probably should have just put it up as unattributed or unknown (I'm sure someone else said something similar at some point) - now some seem to think I live a life devoted to hating all things socialism while also having a picutre of ol' Margie tattooed on my ass...

RE: They forgot the most important step!?

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

Between 'seem' and 'they do' there's some difference, thankfully.

Don't worry. No one believes you have Margie's mug tattooed on your ass - though, now that you've brought it up, I can't get the vision of that out of my head. What has been imagined cannot be unimagined!!!

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Unless you're that infamous Melvin-Udall guy, nope, I don't think you come across as Margie's fanboy. Not even remotely.

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

And Thatcherism wasn't a house of cards that was bound to crumble under the weight of its own internal inconsistencies and the ever widening social gaps it was so helpful in opening during her rule? It took Britain a decade to recover from the damage she had done to that society - and now she's being cited as if she was some kind of sage? Wow. What's next, citing Mein Kampf?

[dreamville-bg.livejournal.com]

The Maduros must be such exemplary socialists! What with spreading the wealth evenly between everybody themselves, and all that.

Btw, 'maduro' sounds pretty much like a word that means 'testicles' in my language. :-)

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

"Right now, it seems Venezuela is sliding fast towards civil war."

It might be a very one-sided civil war. Yes, Maduro and his folks have lost public support. They were trounced in the elections for their National Assembly, giving up a 2/3rd majority, which the Supreme Court promptly undid. About 70% of Venezuelans in a recent poll want Mr. Maduro removed from power. All of this doesn't mean much if he still has the support of the army, which he seems to. This wouldn't be a civil war so much as a slaughter. It has been clear that Mr. Maduro's administration has no idea how to run a country, but it's equally as clear that they have some pretty good ideas about how to maintain power, it's almost as if their lives depended on it. This shouldn't sound too unfamiliar.

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Ah. Good to know that power-hungry lunatics don't even need CIA intervention to go down in flames on their own.

A CIA intervention or two might be helpful in that respect, though, granted.

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

Venezuela was unraveling (http://www.cnbc.com/2013/11/25/economy-mismanagement-makes-collapse-look-likely.html) even before oil prices dropped. Maybe they could have stumbled along for a few more years if oil was still over $100 per barrel, but the price controls, which in many cases set prices below the cost of production, the byzantine currency controls, and simply spending more money than was coming in would have achieved the same results eventually.

I don't actually have any idea how Venezuela can get out of their current mess. Typically a country in this kind of situation gets a bailout from the IMF, along with a painful reform package where changes can be blamed on the IMF rather than the local politicians who should probably have undertaken them years ago. Venezuela kicked out the IMF over a decade ago. Even if the government was willing, I'd guess it would be quite a while before a package could be put together. Venezuela's oil production has been shrinking and is expected to drop more, some are predicting it'll go to zero (http://sports.yahoo.com/photos/verleger-venezuela-oil-output-may-photo-205352589.html). This of course would be a huge problem where most food is imported. Even if it doesn't go to zero, Venezuela needs to keep paying the Chinese government and their bond holders. If not, the oil they do export could very well be seized. Their current leaders are corrupt idiots who have no idea how to run a country, and the opposition seems more concerned with taking power than solving Venezuela's problems. In the short term, it looks like things are just going to get much worse.