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talkpoliticsWhen he took office in 2014, Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk called his decision a political suicide. That was before the Russian annexation of Crimea and the start of the conflict in the Donbass. Now two years later, Yatsenyuk may've not officially become a political corpse yet, but he's close. Although his government did survive a no confidence vote last month, since then the ruling coalition has been in shambles. And the political stupor is threatening not just the PM's fate but also Ukraine's hopes for normalization.
The impression is that an oligarchic counter-revolution has been launched, as one Serhiy Leshchenko, a current PM, recently said. One initiated by none else but Yatsenyuk himself, and president Poroshenko. Ukraine is again fighting its internal demons: paralyzing corruption and the suffocating embrace between business and power. In result, the country is at the brink of political chaos and economic collapse, while the rulers are quickly running out of favor with the populace, and losing the credit of trust that they were given both from outside and inside.
The no confidence vote was obviously meant as political masquerade. Its purpose was to conceal the unwillingness of some people from the top ranks to do real reform. It's been clear for months that Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk have no desire to tackle the rotten system that's benefiting a handful of people and ruining the country for all the rest. Tensions were building up, and the real reformists and allies of the ruling coalition, the Ukrainian society and the West were getting increasingly frustrated. What the country's leaders needed was a vent that could let out some of that tension.
This explains the circuses that first the president arranged (himself heading the largest party in the ruling coalition), when he demanded Yatsenyuk's resignation, and then the parliament voted on a resolution that qualified the government's work as "unsatisfactory" - and then minutes later those same MPs, many of whom remain closely tied to the oligarchs, voted in confidence for the PM. The obvious conclusion from the whole episode is that Yatsenyuk is a key figure from the old system, and his removal would threaten its survival.
Granted, during these two years since the Maidan events, now called the Revolution of Dignity by the Ukrainians, the rulers in Kiev have done a lot - especially given the economic chaos they inherited, and the war in the eastern part of the country. They started reforming the police following the Georgian model, and also the public contracts system, the tax system, state companies, and started decentralizing the regime. Except, there are still no verdicts against major figures from among the political elites and business power-brokers, and the impression is that the larger part of the old guard remains intact, and is still doing pretty well. For instance, the General Prosecutor Viktor Shokin is being accused of guarding the status quo and blocking investigations against the top ranks - he was being vehemently defended by the president until recently, but then the pressure from both outside and inside became so immense, he had to be sacrificed.
So far the Poroshenko / Yatsenyuk duo has avoided real reform that could potentially hurt the old system. They've been doing cosmetic changes that would be just enough to keep the Western financial aid flowing, thus avoiding a full economic collapse for Ukraine. But they've stayed away from any changes that could dismantle the current model - like overhauling the judicial system to make it truly independent. It's up to the government to dismantle the old system, but so far it's only been put into hibernation, and it could be re-activated at any given time.
The crumbling of the ruling coalition became imminent as early as the loud resignations of two of the most active fighters for change, the minister of the economy Aivaras Abromavicius (a Lithuanian import), and deputy chief prosecutor Vitaly Kasko. Then came the unsuccessful no confidence vote and the withdrawal of the pro-reformist Self Reliance party from the coalition. Along with the withdrawal of former PM Yulia Tymoshenko's faction Batkivshchyna, this has left the government without majority in parliament. With a PM of a 1% approval rating and a thinning patience of the international creditors (which could delay the vital 17.5 billion dollar IMF aid installment), Ukraine looks like a country at the brink of becoming ungovernable, now more than ever.
The more optimistic interpretation is that the recent turbulence and the divorce in the cabinet could actually be a positive signal. Abromavicius' well-measured move which is what triggered the crisis, plus the subsequent events like the scandalous no confidence vote in parliament, have sent some encouraging shock waves through the Ukrainian political class. Such developments show that the social and political institutions in Ukraine might be capable of transmitting the public's interests upwards to the highest levels of power. Even if Yatsenyuk manages to hold on to power with Poroshenko's tactical support, both have now been seriously warned that the mere imitation of reform will not be tolerated much further by the Ukrainian people and their Western partners. So now they'll have to roll up the sleeves and get out of their stupor.
What's more, Ukraine just cannot afford yet another disappointment like the one that followed the Orange Revolution. Such a failure would have much darker consequences than the first one. Firstly, in the last two years the Ukrainians have made much bigger sacrifices. There was blood and death at the Maidan, there was war in Donbass, and then there was the humiliating loss of Crimea, and a heavy price of the reform - one that people are barely able to cope with at this point. So the Ukrainians would hardly just sit there and watch how their leaders are failing them once more. Secondly, Kiev's failure would cause the financial and political aid from the West to run out. Without these funds, Ukraine would be unable to avoid economic collapse. And without political support, the country would remain defenseless against Russian pressure. So, the spring clean-up that the government should urgently be starting now, is probably one of Ukraine's last chances to prove that the Revolution of Dignity is not just an impossible dream.
The impression is that an oligarchic counter-revolution has been launched, as one Serhiy Leshchenko, a current PM, recently said. One initiated by none else but Yatsenyuk himself, and president Poroshenko. Ukraine is again fighting its internal demons: paralyzing corruption and the suffocating embrace between business and power. In result, the country is at the brink of political chaos and economic collapse, while the rulers are quickly running out of favor with the populace, and losing the credit of trust that they were given both from outside and inside.
The no confidence vote was obviously meant as political masquerade. Its purpose was to conceal the unwillingness of some people from the top ranks to do real reform. It's been clear for months that Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk have no desire to tackle the rotten system that's benefiting a handful of people and ruining the country for all the rest. Tensions were building up, and the real reformists and allies of the ruling coalition, the Ukrainian society and the West were getting increasingly frustrated. What the country's leaders needed was a vent that could let out some of that tension.
This explains the circuses that first the president arranged (himself heading the largest party in the ruling coalition), when he demanded Yatsenyuk's resignation, and then the parliament voted on a resolution that qualified the government's work as "unsatisfactory" - and then minutes later those same MPs, many of whom remain closely tied to the oligarchs, voted in confidence for the PM. The obvious conclusion from the whole episode is that Yatsenyuk is a key figure from the old system, and his removal would threaten its survival.
Granted, during these two years since the Maidan events, now called the Revolution of Dignity by the Ukrainians, the rulers in Kiev have done a lot - especially given the economic chaos they inherited, and the war in the eastern part of the country. They started reforming the police following the Georgian model, and also the public contracts system, the tax system, state companies, and started decentralizing the regime. Except, there are still no verdicts against major figures from among the political elites and business power-brokers, and the impression is that the larger part of the old guard remains intact, and is still doing pretty well. For instance, the General Prosecutor Viktor Shokin is being accused of guarding the status quo and blocking investigations against the top ranks - he was being vehemently defended by the president until recently, but then the pressure from both outside and inside became so immense, he had to be sacrificed.
So far the Poroshenko / Yatsenyuk duo has avoided real reform that could potentially hurt the old system. They've been doing cosmetic changes that would be just enough to keep the Western financial aid flowing, thus avoiding a full economic collapse for Ukraine. But they've stayed away from any changes that could dismantle the current model - like overhauling the judicial system to make it truly independent. It's up to the government to dismantle the old system, but so far it's only been put into hibernation, and it could be re-activated at any given time.
The crumbling of the ruling coalition became imminent as early as the loud resignations of two of the most active fighters for change, the minister of the economy Aivaras Abromavicius (a Lithuanian import), and deputy chief prosecutor Vitaly Kasko. Then came the unsuccessful no confidence vote and the withdrawal of the pro-reformist Self Reliance party from the coalition. Along with the withdrawal of former PM Yulia Tymoshenko's faction Batkivshchyna, this has left the government without majority in parliament. With a PM of a 1% approval rating and a thinning patience of the international creditors (which could delay the vital 17.5 billion dollar IMF aid installment), Ukraine looks like a country at the brink of becoming ungovernable, now more than ever.
The more optimistic interpretation is that the recent turbulence and the divorce in the cabinet could actually be a positive signal. Abromavicius' well-measured move which is what triggered the crisis, plus the subsequent events like the scandalous no confidence vote in parliament, have sent some encouraging shock waves through the Ukrainian political class. Such developments show that the social and political institutions in Ukraine might be capable of transmitting the public's interests upwards to the highest levels of power. Even if Yatsenyuk manages to hold on to power with Poroshenko's tactical support, both have now been seriously warned that the mere imitation of reform will not be tolerated much further by the Ukrainian people and their Western partners. So now they'll have to roll up the sleeves and get out of their stupor.
What's more, Ukraine just cannot afford yet another disappointment like the one that followed the Orange Revolution. Such a failure would have much darker consequences than the first one. Firstly, in the last two years the Ukrainians have made much bigger sacrifices. There was blood and death at the Maidan, there was war in Donbass, and then there was the humiliating loss of Crimea, and a heavy price of the reform - one that people are barely able to cope with at this point. So the Ukrainians would hardly just sit there and watch how their leaders are failing them once more. Secondly, Kiev's failure would cause the financial and political aid from the West to run out. Without these funds, Ukraine would be unable to avoid economic collapse. And without political support, the country would remain defenseless against Russian pressure. So, the spring clean-up that the government should urgently be starting now, is probably one of Ukraine's last chances to prove that the Revolution of Dignity is not just an impossible dream.
(no subject)
Date: 12/3/16 21:16 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/3/16 19:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/3/16 13:34 (UTC)Come oooon... this can't be right.