[identity profile] dreamville-bg.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
Being the cynical nation that we are, we Bulgarians have a nice saying: "Once we join a strategic alliance, they're doomed with imminent collapse". And it's true. Ironically, history has shown that whichever block of countries we've joined, soon tends to collapse (the continental block in WW1; the axis in WW2; the Soviet block)... This doesn't bode well for NATO and the EU now, does it? And neither for Schengen.

Here's what happened the other day. The elaborate technocratic lace of the Brussels dress that was being woven between UK and EU may've achieved some form, now that the two sides have reached an "agreement" - but these are hard to explain to the ordinary EU citizen. The agreement between Cameron and the remaining 27 member states now grants UK a "special status" within the EU (not that the UK didn't already have a special-snowflake status in practice, if not on paper). The idea is to appease the special snowflake Britons to please be so kind to stay with us a while more, because we love them so much, even if they hate us. Cute - in a very typically European way.

Problem is, the Euroskeptics at the other side of the La Manche (or as they humbly call it, the "British" Channel), won't find anything in this agreement that would help change their skepticism about Europe even one bit. In that sense, this agreement, beside being a blatant legitimization of the double standards that have already existed in the EU for quite a while, and an act of shameless bending over backwards, is also something like a death kiss for the EU itself.

Why? Because the Britons are obviously more prone to occupying themselves with philosophical questions like, is Britain's insular character compatible with a continental block at all - rather than dealing with more specific issues like interpreting specific measures like welfare cuts for future internal EU migrants (such a sensitive question to the insular Britons!)

By the way, the fact that the whole of Europe has now bent over backwards in front of the British demands, still doesn't guarantee that the referendum that Cameron is now preparing, would appease Euroskepticism within his own party itself, let alone the rest of the British society (Scotland is quite another story - they do love their Europeanness, but Brussels betrayed them by warning them that if they had seceded, they'd be thrown out of the EU). Thus, the upcoming referendum could turn out a deadly blow on EU itself.

A Brexit could have both economic and political consequences, sure. But even if it's averted, this agreement has already sprinkled the poison into Europe's bloodstream, and it'll be sure to be slowly killing the EU from now on. It won't happen overnight, let's not fool ourselves. Rather, it'll be a protracted dismantling process. Because from now on, nobody would have the incentive to respect the common rules, since they've all witnessed how these rules could be bypassed through a nicely, skillfully crafted good old-style blackmail. You know, the British way.

Paradoxically, if the UK and EU keep things as per the stipulations of this agreement, this would slowly kill the union. If the UK leaves the EU, that'll kill the union as well. Cool, heh?

(no subject)

Date: 22/2/16 09:15 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] luzribeiro.livejournal.com
If the UK leaves the EU, that'll kill the union as well

Do we know that for sure, though?

RE: Exactly.

Date: 22/2/16 09:18 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] luzribeiro.livejournal.com
It could be just me not caring about some unions-schmunions, but IMO the EU should've called UK's bluff.

RE: Exactly.

Date: 22/2/16 09:18 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] luzribeiro.livejournal.com
Sorry, I'm taken! :)

(no subject)

Date: 22/2/16 09:19 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] luvdovz.livejournal.com
It would've been fine if it were only Britain. But these sort of moods are getting ever more prevalent in a number of other EU members as well.

(no subject)

Date: 22/2/16 12:15 (UTC)
adjectivegail: (cat haiku I meant to do that)
From: [personal profile] adjectivegail
So in our referendum I should just vote for exit anyway since even if we stay in the EU's doomed anyway?

(no subject)

Date: 22/2/16 12:42 (UTC)
adjectivegail: (chaos butterfly)
From: [personal profile] adjectivegail
Sorry, forgot the winky face so you couldn't see I was being sarcastic. You've basically articulated what I've already been thinking. I agree with [livejournal.com profile] htpcl below about how the EU shouldn't have screwed Scotland. Scotland would totally have stayed in the EU, they're now muttering about a second referendum on Scottish independence if the outcome of our EU referendum is to leave the EU.

(no subject)

Date: 22/2/16 12:20 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
The EU could've courted Scotland and run away with it. Instead, they preferred to pander to London by flipping the bird to Edinburgh. Now they're having a huge problem on their hands: London is acting like a spoiled kid, and chances are that the whole UK would run away anyway.

Talk about poor judgment.

(no subject)

Date: 22/2/16 12:39 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com
I know one... correction, at least two global players who'd be extremely happy if the EU is no more. One is at the other side of the Pond, the other at this side.

(no subject)

Date: 28/2/16 17:48 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] foolsguinea.livejournal.com
After Tsipras agreed to let ECB & Eurogroup put the screws to Greece, because he was determined to keep Greece integrated with Europe, I'm going to laugh if the whole EU unravels anyway.

Seriously, though, some of the international institutions will survive, some will shrink, some will fade away, and some, like the Euro, were terribly designed in the first place.

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