As for the Peak Oil theorists who used to be very vocal until no so long ago....
They're still quite vocal, actually. They aren't being quoted in the mainstream press, of course, since so many have glommed on to the fact that they were likely right.
One thing to note, concerning your observation about growth possibilities outside the US: The US built its infrastructure on really, really cheap gas; Europe did not, opting instead to tax fuels and divert that revenue into social programs. Result? Just as you said, with Germany, et al. probably growing a bit, but with the US still suffering.
Take that fracking "boom". As for fracking, despite all the controversy that surrounds it, it has brought back the theories that thanks to the technological innovations, there's practically no limit to economic development.
Not so fast, Sunshine. Those frackers need oil at $90/barrel just to break even. As many in the "quiet" PO community have noted, crude under $100/barrel kills producers; crude over $100/barrel kills the US economy (again, thanks to our thirsty infrastructure).
Only junk bond funding is carrying these marginal producers; many have folded once the junk bonds stopped flowing. And US banks are carrying a lot of this junk in their portfolios, meaning another cleansing moment is due in our future.
Which is really, really bad news: the banksters managed through the Dodd-Frank Act to close the bailout option; that was well publicized. What was less discussed is the bail in (http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/04/economist-explains-2) rescue of a bank, where the depositors get to help a troubled financial institution by giving them every penny therein deposited.
Even worse, those banks have quite likely hedged their fracking junk with derivative contracts, meaning they probably all hold a hedge to the other guys' bad loans. Meaning, just like the housing crisis, when one goes, all have to pay a contract holder shorting the entire industry for their stupidity.
As to PO, go for the long view. The peak started in 2005. We are now in what Hubbert called The Bumpy Plateau, where commodity prices spike and crash with regularity, leading downward supply-wise only in the very long view. We spent 150 years draining this goo; expect the long decline to take another 150 years (provided the short-sighted don't start wars which blow up the reserves before then).
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Date: 31/12/15 01:30 (UTC)They're still quite vocal, actually. They aren't being quoted in the mainstream press, of course, since so many have glommed on to the fact that they were likely right.
One thing to note, concerning your observation about growth possibilities outside the US: The US built its infrastructure on really, really cheap gas; Europe did not, opting instead to tax fuels and divert that revenue into social programs. Result? Just as you said, with Germany, et al. probably growing a bit, but with the US still suffering.
Take that fracking "boom". As for fracking, despite all the controversy that surrounds it, it has brought back the theories that thanks to the technological innovations, there's practically no limit to economic development.
Not so fast, Sunshine. Those frackers need oil at $90/barrel just to break even. As many in the "quiet" PO community have noted, crude under $100/barrel kills producers; crude over $100/barrel kills the US economy (again, thanks to our thirsty infrastructure).
Only junk bond funding is carrying these marginal producers; many have folded once the junk bonds stopped flowing. And US banks are carrying a lot of this junk in their portfolios, meaning another cleansing moment is due in our future.
Which is really, really bad news: the banksters managed through the Dodd-Frank Act to close the bailout option; that was well publicized. What was less discussed is the bail in (http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/04/economist-explains-2) rescue of a bank, where the depositors get to help a troubled financial institution by giving them every penny therein deposited.
Even worse, those banks have quite likely hedged their fracking junk with derivative contracts, meaning they probably all hold a hedge to the other guys' bad loans. Meaning, just like the housing crisis, when one goes, all have to pay a contract holder shorting the entire industry for their stupidity.
As to PO, go for the long view. The peak started in 2005. We are now in what Hubbert called The Bumpy Plateau, where commodity prices spike and crash with regularity, leading downward supply-wise only in the very long view. We spent 150 years draining this goo; expect the long decline to take another 150 years (provided the short-sighted don't start wars which blow up the reserves before then).