Another potential area for concern is the Taiwan situation. The transfer of Hong Kong was really about so much more than just that city; it was China's chance to show other potential prodigal children that coming back "home" wouldn't be the end of the world. It was, at least ostensibly, China's declaration to other lost territories that military might was not their preferred method of recovering "their" land. That hasn't stopped the flexing of muscles in the Taiwan straight or the South China Sea, of course, so we can take that with a grain of salt.
Now, both Japan and the U.S. have agreed with the "One China" policy, and technically don't have "official" relations with the ROC in Taiwan. Yet no one (including the PRC) really bats an eyelash at the ongoing trade and interaction between Taiwan, the U.S., and Japan. Bush went so far as to say that the U.S. would intervene in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the last several administrations have tried to walk this balance between maintaining relations with the PRC (meaning breaking off anything formal with the ROC) yet still interacting with the ROC in every possible way without calling it a formal relationship.
With that in mind, what if China decided they were tired of waiting, and invaded Taiwan? It's a huge assumption, of course, as is the assumption that the U.S. might intervene. But if that happened (and again, that's a big if,) the question I've taken forever to get around to is this: what does Japan do? Japan has been pretty clear that they have no part in such a conflict. Yet they're the big military ally of the U.S. in the Pacific. You can bet there'd be pressure by Washington for the Japanese to contribute something, and that potential situation has to be on the minds of regional leaders. Even if China isn't planning on any sort of military interaction with Taiwan (and I still tend to believe that they really aren't) this has to be on their minds, because every country with a military of any note has every possible future scenario mapped out and planned for, and if for nothing but this reason alone, any change in Japan's military readiness or make-up is going to affect Sino-Japanese relations.
And remember, the ROC also acknowledges the "One China" policy, just in reverse. They have to be watching this situation very closely as well.
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Date: 10/8/15 14:05 (UTC)Now, both Japan and the U.S. have agreed with the "One China" policy, and technically don't have "official" relations with the ROC in Taiwan. Yet no one (including the PRC) really bats an eyelash at the ongoing trade and interaction between Taiwan, the U.S., and Japan. Bush went so far as to say that the U.S. would intervene in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and the last several administrations have tried to walk this balance between maintaining relations with the PRC (meaning breaking off anything formal with the ROC) yet still interacting with the ROC in every possible way without calling it a formal relationship.
With that in mind, what if China decided they were tired of waiting, and invaded Taiwan? It's a huge assumption, of course, as is the assumption that the U.S. might intervene. But if that happened (and again, that's a big if,) the question I've taken forever to get around to is this: what does Japan do? Japan has been pretty clear that they have no part in such a conflict. Yet they're the big military ally of the U.S. in the Pacific. You can bet there'd be pressure by Washington for the Japanese to contribute something, and that potential situation has to be on the minds of regional leaders. Even if China isn't planning on any sort of military interaction with Taiwan (and I still tend to believe that they really aren't) this has to be on their minds, because every country with a military of any note has every possible future scenario mapped out and planned for, and if for nothing but this reason alone, any change in Japan's military readiness or make-up is going to affect Sino-Japanese relations.
And remember, the ROC also acknowledges the "One China" policy, just in reverse. They have to be watching this situation very closely as well.