The boy who cried wolf
19/5/15 15:56![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
htpcl.livejournal.com posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsHey, ma'fellow shepherds! I'm sure you know the fable of the boy who cried wolf, eh? Well, you might not have heard of this, but the Macedonian government of PM Nikola Gruevski has recently found itself in the very same situation like in that fable.
1) Thousands rally to demand resignation of Macedonia's Prime Minister
2) Macedonia protests: Thousands rally for PM Gruevski
3) Macedonia divided by deep political crisis; must face corruption allegations, armed rebellion
Now that the ante has been upped, things are looking very different after the massive protests against Gruevski's clique, and the response of his devout/bought supporters, and the weird anti-terror operation in the northern town of Kumanovo from two weekends ago. Just a few days later came the call of Ali Ahmeti, long-time leader of the ethnic Albanians and Gruevski's coalition partner. He urged for mass participation in the peaceful anti-government protests. And many observers figured this was the beginning of the end for the regime. Granted, it won't go without a fight, so we might expect a protracted agony before the Macedonian people are done with Gruevski.
Right now, the country is dangerously divided, and the only positive thing is that this rift still doesn't seem to be running along ethnic lines (which is a very sensitive topic at the banks of the Vardar river). The division remains mostly political. The government is running out of legitimacy, and now rests upon institutions that look absolutely hollow and completely devoid of meaning. This does make the country painfully vulnerable, and chances are that it could topple into a very nasty direction - just as it happened back in 2001. But maybe not so fast as some fear.
Macedonia Plunges Into Deeper Crisis After Kumanovo Clash
The facts around the events in Macedonia's 2nd biggest city are as follows. A two-day long operation of the security forces against an insurgent group that had crossed the border from Kosovo resulted in the death of 8 policemen and 14 locals of Albanian ethnicity - the deadliest incident in Macedonia since the time when the tiny Balkan country was last balancing at the razor edge of ethnic conflict 14 years ago. From there on, what follows is speculations, fueled by the shortage of information and details about the circumstances surrounding the bloody clash. And also by the deep polarization in the country.
The first version comes from the pro-government circles, and it says that the police had successfully neutralized one of the deadliest terror groups in the Balkans. The pro-government media claims that these were supporters of the Greater Albania cause, and some are going even further, alleging that America's long hand could be recognized here. Curiously, Macedonia is getting destabilized just as Russia has agreed to proceed with the Turkish Stream pipeline, has gotten Greece on board, and was now negotiating with Macedonia as well (Gruevski doesn't hide his sympathies for Putin).
The other version comes from the opposition camp, centered around the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia. Their interpretation is that the whole incident was an orchestrated false-flag operation, directed by the ruling VMRO-DPMNE plus Albanians coalition, aiming to divert the focus away from the ongoing wiretapping scandal that's been rocking the country for months. What's making an impression here is how divided Macedonia is on these interpretations. Neither camp would listen to the other.
The way I'm reading the situation, it seems the terrorist group comprised of militants and supporters of the former structures of the Kosovo Liberation Army and its Macedonian wing, the National Liberation Army, which was behind the military actions in Kosovo in 1999 and then in Macedonia in 2001. Now these groups are mostly dealing with organized criminal business. It's a well-trained group that has previously operated in both Macedonia and Kosovo. One of their more recent operations was an attack on a police station in a border town at the Macedonian side of the Kosovo border. Those who believe Kumanovo was a genuine terror operation, are saying there's no way Gruevski's government could've funded the incident, and such claims are much akin to the 9-11 Truther conspiracy theories.
However, this doesn't negate all the questions about the particular circumstances in this case. For instance, no one has been able to give a straight answer about how this group was able to place so many fighters and ammo around Kumanovo, and why, even though the authorities now claim they had been following the group very closely for months, with assistance from the Western intelligence services, they didn't intercept it somewhere at the border, but had to wait for it to actually attack a neighborhood in the center of Macedonia's 2nd biggest town, and claim so many lives and cause so much destruction. And suspiciously, all of this is happening just as the protests against the government are escalating, now that the people have learned of Gruevski's surveillance program that had spied on a couple thousand of his own people.
The tapes from the intercepted communications which opposition leader Zoran Zaev is calling "scandalous bombs" and which he's been serving to the public in small stinky portions on a daily basis since February, are showing the ugly picture of a regime that's been rotten with corruption to its very core - a system of monstrous fraud, racketeering, cronyism and arrogance which has spread its tentacles across all spheres of authority, business and the media. What people saw in Kumanovo might've really been the actions of an armed insurgent formation, which may've seized the opportunity at the time when the government was particularly vulnerable. But the problem is, the majority of Macedonians (and most neutral observers) have become so used to looking with suspicion at everything Gruevski does and says, that the very throught that the rulers would not shy away from using extreme measures like proxy terrorism to manipulate the public, is no longer dismissed as fantasy.
“Color Revolution” in Macedonia? Washington’s Attempt to Undermine the Turkish Stream Russian Pipeline Project
Yeah, you get the Gruevski/Putin narrative. In fact, if everything was staged by Gruevski in order to reinforce his position, it must've been done in very poor judgment on his part, because it has backfired pretty badly at this point. The EU and US have reacted cautiously and skeptically about his Pyrrhic "victory" over the "terrorists", and called for a quick and transparent investigation of the Kumanovo incident. Naturally, the most support came from Russia, which accused the Macedonian opposition of being "inspired and driven by Western-inspired NGOs", and aiming to cause a "Color Revolution". But the wider context of the incident in Kumanovo is that the government has shown that it's out of touch and out of ideas about the direction where Macedonia should be heading - whether towards the EU and NATO, or towards Moscow and the East. Instead, what Gruevski has been doing for years, is to attempt to craft an arfiticial identity for his country, stealing history from all neighbors, stacking the center of Skopje with mega-expensive megalomaniac projects that resemble a theme park, which instead of convincing the visitor of Macedonia's purported "greatness", tend to cause a few raised eyebrows with its kitsch pomposity - especially given the massive cost of this "re-antiquization" process in a country that's been marred by economic problems and chronic poverty.
Meanwhile, the PM has been forced to sacrifice a few of his closest aides, like his cousin (ha!) and Director of the Intelligence Services, Sasho Mijalkov. And also foreign minister Gordana Jankulovska, and the minister of transportation Mile Janakievski. He's acting like the lizard that cuts its tail to flee danger, but that's only a short-term tactic that is unlikely to help him in the long run. Removing those people from the cabinet was expected and inevitable, but it shouldn't be viewed as some kind of grand triumph of the opposition. And it'd be even more wrong to assume that by sacrificing a couple of pawns, Gruevski could win the chess game. In fact, he may've run out of moves at this point.
In Macedonia, Resisting The Temptation To Divide
Still, despite all these destabilization attempts, there's currently almost no explicitly apparent ethnic tension in Macedonia, save for a remote echo of the 2001 events. Sure, Albanians and Macedonians tend to stay away from each other for the most part, but they've learned to share the same space more or less. Yet, that doesn't mean a spark like the Kumanovo incident couldn't reignite the powder keg that is the region. In reality, when we look under the surface, we could find out that the ethnic relations are still fragile enough, at times to a point of lingering antagonism, although it's nothing like what it used to be in the late 90s. Curiously, in Kumanovo itself the relations between Macedonians and Albanians have never been a serious problem. And curiously, lots of Albanians share the version that this was all meant as a government manipulation. This may sound a bit paradoxically, but from the standpoint of international relations it's good news, because so far the confrontation has pitched the opposition against the regime, not Macedonians against Albanians.
But that doesn't mean that there isn't a growing discontent. We shouldn't discount the fact that the Albanians in Macedonia are unhappy with their own political leaders, who are now acting more like Gruevski's accomplices in his efforts to build an authoritarian regime, rather than working to improve the situation of the Albanian community. Still, the hope is that the bloodshed in Kumanovo would remain an isolated incident. It's encouraging that ever since the operation was over, there haven't been any more outbursts of ethnic hatred - and by the way, the cops who died there were from the regions of Tetovo and Gostivar, which are predominantly Albanian.
Although the concerns about a potential ethnic conflict still seem exaggerated and all sides involved are promising they don't want and will not allow such an outcome, there can be no guarantee, given the current instability and level of polarization. Things could easily get out of hand pretty fast, and turn in a very nasty direction. The main thing is that the political crisis is at its core an institutional crisis - it does make Macedonia vulnerable, yes, but not to the extent that'd bring it to the brink of falling apart like a decade and a half ago. If things are not resolved relatively quickly though, and if other incidents follow the one in Kumanovo, things could get much worse. But the imperative for all sides remains to find a solution to the political crisis. Because, no matter who's been manipulating what, no one really wants to rule a broken country.
I couldn't say for sure when this is going to be over. There was a massive anti-government protest on Sunday, and Gruevski responded with a massive rally of his own - whether the bulk of the latter consisted of people genuinely supporting the regime, or paid "mercenary" protesters, that remains to be cleared out. It's rather telling, though, that Pavle Trajanov, one of Gruevski's biggest coalition partners has said that he wouldn't support the anti-government protests. Which indicates that the political mobilization of both sides of the barricade will continue, and the rift will be deepening - unless the two sides decide to establish some semblance of a contact sometime soon. As the tension grows, the ethnic demons will be sure to start crawling out of the woodwork. And just like in the fable of the boy who cried wolf, there'll no longer be anyone around to lend a hand.
1) Thousands rally to demand resignation of Macedonia's Prime Minister
2) Macedonia protests: Thousands rally for PM Gruevski
3) Macedonia divided by deep political crisis; must face corruption allegations, armed rebellion
Now that the ante has been upped, things are looking very different after the massive protests against Gruevski's clique, and the response of his devout/bought supporters, and the weird anti-terror operation in the northern town of Kumanovo from two weekends ago. Just a few days later came the call of Ali Ahmeti, long-time leader of the ethnic Albanians and Gruevski's coalition partner. He urged for mass participation in the peaceful anti-government protests. And many observers figured this was the beginning of the end for the regime. Granted, it won't go without a fight, so we might expect a protracted agony before the Macedonian people are done with Gruevski.
Right now, the country is dangerously divided, and the only positive thing is that this rift still doesn't seem to be running along ethnic lines (which is a very sensitive topic at the banks of the Vardar river). The division remains mostly political. The government is running out of legitimacy, and now rests upon institutions that look absolutely hollow and completely devoid of meaning. This does make the country painfully vulnerable, and chances are that it could topple into a very nasty direction - just as it happened back in 2001. But maybe not so fast as some fear.
Macedonia Plunges Into Deeper Crisis After Kumanovo Clash
The facts around the events in Macedonia's 2nd biggest city are as follows. A two-day long operation of the security forces against an insurgent group that had crossed the border from Kosovo resulted in the death of 8 policemen and 14 locals of Albanian ethnicity - the deadliest incident in Macedonia since the time when the tiny Balkan country was last balancing at the razor edge of ethnic conflict 14 years ago. From there on, what follows is speculations, fueled by the shortage of information and details about the circumstances surrounding the bloody clash. And also by the deep polarization in the country.
The first version comes from the pro-government circles, and it says that the police had successfully neutralized one of the deadliest terror groups in the Balkans. The pro-government media claims that these were supporters of the Greater Albania cause, and some are going even further, alleging that America's long hand could be recognized here. Curiously, Macedonia is getting destabilized just as Russia has agreed to proceed with the Turkish Stream pipeline, has gotten Greece on board, and was now negotiating with Macedonia as well (Gruevski doesn't hide his sympathies for Putin).
The other version comes from the opposition camp, centered around the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia. Their interpretation is that the whole incident was an orchestrated false-flag operation, directed by the ruling VMRO-DPMNE plus Albanians coalition, aiming to divert the focus away from the ongoing wiretapping scandal that's been rocking the country for months. What's making an impression here is how divided Macedonia is on these interpretations. Neither camp would listen to the other.
The way I'm reading the situation, it seems the terrorist group comprised of militants and supporters of the former structures of the Kosovo Liberation Army and its Macedonian wing, the National Liberation Army, which was behind the military actions in Kosovo in 1999 and then in Macedonia in 2001. Now these groups are mostly dealing with organized criminal business. It's a well-trained group that has previously operated in both Macedonia and Kosovo. One of their more recent operations was an attack on a police station in a border town at the Macedonian side of the Kosovo border. Those who believe Kumanovo was a genuine terror operation, are saying there's no way Gruevski's government could've funded the incident, and such claims are much akin to the 9-11 Truther conspiracy theories.
However, this doesn't negate all the questions about the particular circumstances in this case. For instance, no one has been able to give a straight answer about how this group was able to place so many fighters and ammo around Kumanovo, and why, even though the authorities now claim they had been following the group very closely for months, with assistance from the Western intelligence services, they didn't intercept it somewhere at the border, but had to wait for it to actually attack a neighborhood in the center of Macedonia's 2nd biggest town, and claim so many lives and cause so much destruction. And suspiciously, all of this is happening just as the protests against the government are escalating, now that the people have learned of Gruevski's surveillance program that had spied on a couple thousand of his own people.
The tapes from the intercepted communications which opposition leader Zoran Zaev is calling "scandalous bombs" and which he's been serving to the public in small stinky portions on a daily basis since February, are showing the ugly picture of a regime that's been rotten with corruption to its very core - a system of monstrous fraud, racketeering, cronyism and arrogance which has spread its tentacles across all spheres of authority, business and the media. What people saw in Kumanovo might've really been the actions of an armed insurgent formation, which may've seized the opportunity at the time when the government was particularly vulnerable. But the problem is, the majority of Macedonians (and most neutral observers) have become so used to looking with suspicion at everything Gruevski does and says, that the very throught that the rulers would not shy away from using extreme measures like proxy terrorism to manipulate the public, is no longer dismissed as fantasy.
“Color Revolution” in Macedonia? Washington’s Attempt to Undermine the Turkish Stream Russian Pipeline Project
Yeah, you get the Gruevski/Putin narrative. In fact, if everything was staged by Gruevski in order to reinforce his position, it must've been done in very poor judgment on his part, because it has backfired pretty badly at this point. The EU and US have reacted cautiously and skeptically about his Pyrrhic "victory" over the "terrorists", and called for a quick and transparent investigation of the Kumanovo incident. Naturally, the most support came from Russia, which accused the Macedonian opposition of being "inspired and driven by Western-inspired NGOs", and aiming to cause a "Color Revolution". But the wider context of the incident in Kumanovo is that the government has shown that it's out of touch and out of ideas about the direction where Macedonia should be heading - whether towards the EU and NATO, or towards Moscow and the East. Instead, what Gruevski has been doing for years, is to attempt to craft an arfiticial identity for his country, stealing history from all neighbors, stacking the center of Skopje with mega-expensive megalomaniac projects that resemble a theme park, which instead of convincing the visitor of Macedonia's purported "greatness", tend to cause a few raised eyebrows with its kitsch pomposity - especially given the massive cost of this "re-antiquization" process in a country that's been marred by economic problems and chronic poverty.
Meanwhile, the PM has been forced to sacrifice a few of his closest aides, like his cousin (ha!) and Director of the Intelligence Services, Sasho Mijalkov. And also foreign minister Gordana Jankulovska, and the minister of transportation Mile Janakievski. He's acting like the lizard that cuts its tail to flee danger, but that's only a short-term tactic that is unlikely to help him in the long run. Removing those people from the cabinet was expected and inevitable, but it shouldn't be viewed as some kind of grand triumph of the opposition. And it'd be even more wrong to assume that by sacrificing a couple of pawns, Gruevski could win the chess game. In fact, he may've run out of moves at this point.
In Macedonia, Resisting The Temptation To Divide
Still, despite all these destabilization attempts, there's currently almost no explicitly apparent ethnic tension in Macedonia, save for a remote echo of the 2001 events. Sure, Albanians and Macedonians tend to stay away from each other for the most part, but they've learned to share the same space more or less. Yet, that doesn't mean a spark like the Kumanovo incident couldn't reignite the powder keg that is the region. In reality, when we look under the surface, we could find out that the ethnic relations are still fragile enough, at times to a point of lingering antagonism, although it's nothing like what it used to be in the late 90s. Curiously, in Kumanovo itself the relations between Macedonians and Albanians have never been a serious problem. And curiously, lots of Albanians share the version that this was all meant as a government manipulation. This may sound a bit paradoxically, but from the standpoint of international relations it's good news, because so far the confrontation has pitched the opposition against the regime, not Macedonians against Albanians.
But that doesn't mean that there isn't a growing discontent. We shouldn't discount the fact that the Albanians in Macedonia are unhappy with their own political leaders, who are now acting more like Gruevski's accomplices in his efforts to build an authoritarian regime, rather than working to improve the situation of the Albanian community. Still, the hope is that the bloodshed in Kumanovo would remain an isolated incident. It's encouraging that ever since the operation was over, there haven't been any more outbursts of ethnic hatred - and by the way, the cops who died there were from the regions of Tetovo and Gostivar, which are predominantly Albanian.
Although the concerns about a potential ethnic conflict still seem exaggerated and all sides involved are promising they don't want and will not allow such an outcome, there can be no guarantee, given the current instability and level of polarization. Things could easily get out of hand pretty fast, and turn in a very nasty direction. The main thing is that the political crisis is at its core an institutional crisis - it does make Macedonia vulnerable, yes, but not to the extent that'd bring it to the brink of falling apart like a decade and a half ago. If things are not resolved relatively quickly though, and if other incidents follow the one in Kumanovo, things could get much worse. But the imperative for all sides remains to find a solution to the political crisis. Because, no matter who's been manipulating what, no one really wants to rule a broken country.
I couldn't say for sure when this is going to be over. There was a massive anti-government protest on Sunday, and Gruevski responded with a massive rally of his own - whether the bulk of the latter consisted of people genuinely supporting the regime, or paid "mercenary" protesters, that remains to be cleared out. It's rather telling, though, that Pavle Trajanov, one of Gruevski's biggest coalition partners has said that he wouldn't support the anti-government protests. Which indicates that the political mobilization of both sides of the barricade will continue, and the rift will be deepening - unless the two sides decide to establish some semblance of a contact sometime soon. As the tension grows, the ethnic demons will be sure to start crawling out of the woodwork. And just like in the fable of the boy who cried wolf, there'll no longer be anyone around to lend a hand.
(no subject)
Date: 19/5/15 13:13 (UTC)Where-oh-where is this world going to!?
Ps. No surprise that the US-tolerated "Shiptars" are crossing from Kosovo and massacring people with impunity. Kosovo has been turned into a drug-, arms- and human-trafficking hub under the benevolent gaze of KFOR, after all.
(no subject)
Date: 19/5/15 13:16 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/5/15 13:18 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/5/15 13:49 (UTC)Hardly a surprise, especially for you (http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/1935346.html). :-)
(no subject)
Date: 19/5/15 18:57 (UTC)Btw, would you say Macedonia is now what your country could've become, had it not joined the EU and NATO?
(no subject)
Date: 19/5/15 19:06 (UTC)But sure, joining the EU and NATO was mainly done to achieve political stability and geopolitical security.
(no subject)
Date: 19/5/15 19:02 (UTC)Ironically, these same social-democrats who are now playing noble whistleblowers, are the successors of the old communist clique that brought the country from the 20th into the 19th century. So I'd be rather suspicious of their motivations as much as Gruevsky's. It's just that Macedonia is in a terrible need of a new political class, and I'm afraid the only way to sweep these guys away is through a Macedonian "spring" or whatever you'd like to call it.
Good in-depth article, by the way.
(no subject)
Date: 19/5/15 19:08 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 20/5/15 13:44 (UTC)