Cuba needs its old foe

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Seems like Cuba is pulling the brakes on the recently heralded warming up of its relations with the US. The historic breakthrough may've prompted many in Havana to sound the alarm: what would happen if Obama's new approach to Cuba puts all achievements of the revolution in question? Cuba is afraid it could remain without its sworn enemy. And for a reason. After all, the US has been one of the main foundations that the Castro regime has long been using to legitimize its grip on power.

Without its crusade against American imperialism, the regime would find it hard to explain to its people how come there's still a one-party state there. If the US embargo is lifted, there'll be no more excuse for the ailing economy and the finacial failures. Which is why the hardliners in Havana don't really seem to want a normalization of the relations with the US. Since the very beginning of the negotiations, a speaker of the Cuban foreign ministry pointed out that establishing normal diplomatic relations shouldn't necessarily mean normalization of the political relations.

After half a century of socialism, Cuba cannot and does not want to abandon its ideological principles - not without putting the very existence of its system in jeopardy. The Castro regime is doing their best to protect their power, while the US is mostly pursuing economic and geopolitical interests. So the normalization of the diplomatic relations has its merits for both sides, but for different reasons.

The Castro regime has declared this achievement to be a political victory, since Cuba is getting more concessions from the US than the opposite. For instance, the Cuban expats in the US will be able to send more dollars back to the island, and the easier traveling regime will certainly increase the number of Americans who'd like to visit Cuba and see with their eyes how the last fortress of socialism looks like IRL.

Cuba's dependence on the financial transfers from "enemy" America is one of the many paradoxes in this strange symbiotic relationship. The Cuban population cannot get all those foods without the US, either - despite the embargo, the US has remained Cuba's 4th largest trade partner through the years.

In reality, the normalization of the relations between the two countries has been ongoing for quite a while. Thanks to the Internet, the Cuban sports fans are able to follow their idols from the NBA, and keep in touch with the latest fashion fads in Miami. 2 million Cubans already live in the US. And thanks to the loosened traveling regime since 2013, about 50,000 new "political refugees" are added to these every year.

The Castro regime doesn't have much time to ensure the survival of its ideological future. So it's no surprise that they're doing everything in their powers to stall the real normalization of their relations with the US as long as possible. Because they realize that without their sworn enemy, their brand of socialism is doomed.

Comments

[404.livejournal.com]

"After half a century of socialism, Cuba cannot and does not want to abandon its ideological principles - not without putting the very existence of its system in jeopardy."

More like the Castro clique and their ideological allies don't want it to end.

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

I essentially said as much, didn't I.

[404.livejournal.com]

I'd say that the millions of Cuban refugees in the US would not assume that Castro is Cuba, and vice versa.

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Oh I see. You've just been trolling again. Okay then!

[musicpsych.livejournal.com]

I see the distinction you're making. I bristled at some of the points in the OP because they go contrary to my sense of the situation, but it made more sense when I realized that "Cuba" could mean different things--the people of Cuba, government leadership, etc. And even within each group, there is likely debate and opposition.

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Well, this thing would become rather heavy to read if instead of "Cuba", every time I had used "part of the government of Cuba", wouldn't it.

[musicpsych.livejournal.com]

Perhaps, though it would be more precise. Go too far with the general label and it risks a weird doublespeak:

"America loves war. America hates war. America is rich. America is poor. America works hard. America is lazy. America values education. America derides education."

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Fine. Feel free to use the extended version of terms the next time you make a post. I'd rather stick to the current one.

Frankly, I'd appreciate if people contributed more to the debate of the topic itself, rather than quibbling over semantics, but I guess I shouldn't expect too much.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Well, lifting the embargo would require a majority vote in Congress. And I don't see that coming any time soon. Still, it's good to see some cracks appearing in the ice, even if they're not as wide and fast to open as some might be hoping.

If anything, this is a bit too little too late. It should've happened a long time ago, because obviously the blockade turned out fruitless. What's more, the supporters of the embargo may've achieved the exact opposite to what they wanted. They gave the communist tyrants in Cuba an excuse for their failures.

[oportet.livejournal.com]

Their cigar makers should have similar worries. Once the cool, 'illegal' appeal is gone - Nicaraguans should jump them easily.

[johnny9fingers.livejournal.com]

Which is why in the non-embargoed countries, like the UK, Nicaraguan cigars sell so well in comparison to Cuban ones. Or not.

Havanas every time, and most folk that smoke cigars in Europe seem to agree. But the U.S. and Europe have such different tastes; look at chocolate.

[dexeron.livejournal.com]

"Cuba's going to want to tie up what they can under a Democratic presidency, and ideally before an election season where every Republican presidential candidate will have to speak out against normalization."

Especially because part of locking in the vote of the Cuban community (traditionally) is to take a hard line against Cuba, regardless of whether that hard-line accomplishes anything. It's an essential portion of any Republican platform, at least here in South Florida.

(It does seem (though maybe I'm not reading things right) that the second and third generation descendents of the original exiles are a bit less knee-jerk hostile to any form of normalization though...)

[dexeron.livejournal.com]

I might be reading too much into it, but I think there's some pretty cunning political strategy going into these moves, and that might be partially behind why they're happening - not that I don't think they're worth doing regardless of intent, nor am I casting aspersions on the Obama administration's intentions: just because they're doing something that's smart politically doesn't mean they aren't also doing it because it's the right thing to do, but just being careful about choosing their timing.

Like I've heard others say (and this is in no way to say that Obama has, on balance, been a failure in any way): "I wish the Obama we've gotten over the last six weeks was the Obama we got for the last six years."