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talkpolitics
The plot is such a cliche, isn't it? Russia and Ukraine are having a fight, and at some point Gazprom turns the tap, and Europe becomes a collateral casualty in the umpteenth gas war. The last time was in 2009, and the situation was pretty dramatic because it took place in the middle of a particularly freezing winter, and lasted for 3 weeks. This time, at least for now, there's no panic, although EU commissioner of energetics Günther Oettinger warned that if Ukraine's underground gas storages are not filled until the winter (and Ukraine might have to resort to those eventually), there could be disruptions in the gas supplies to Europe. There's also the naive hope that the political situation would have somehow improved by then.
The crisis was prompted by a new wave of failures in the neogiation process between Russia and Ukraine. Gazprom's ultimatum to Ukraine to pay its gas debts worth 4.5 billion dollars has expired. Ukraine, where 15% of Europe's gas passes transit, claims that Gazprom is artificially pumping up the prices.
The gas was stopped an hour after the deadline expired, so now the only gas that flows through that pipeline is the one destinated to Europe. Still no problems for the European consumers - for the time being.
The failure in the weekend's negotiations is also coupled with new tensions between Russia and Ukraine, after the reported death of 49 Ukrainian soldiers in an incident where pro-Russian separatists downed a Ukrainian military transportation plane. Ukraine is now having a day of national mourning, there are accusations that Russian tanks are already crossing the border, and heavy artillery is being deployed in the border regions. Putin of course denies all that, the same way he used to deny those unmarked militants in Crimea being actual Russian troops - before he eventually acknowledged it.
The whole problem stems from the fact that Gazprom insists that Ukraine should shift to a new payment regime for the gas supplies. The EU compromise proposal was rejected in the weekend, so the negotiations collapsed. The Euros wanted Kiev to pay 1 billion dollars of their debt right now, and the rest until the end of the year. Ukraine was prone to accepting that (it was going to be European bail-out money anyway, which btw is probably going to be much more than what Greece got), but the Russians were unwilling to compromise. So now we have a new gas crisis, and the only thing that prevents it from becoming a huge problem is that it's summer and nobody is freezing. But we'd be fools to believe that the whole story won't repeat itself in half a year.
Ultimately, the sides involved will have to meet somewhere around the middle. From the Russian perspective, you can't use a resource and then not pay for it. The gas price had been fixed a long time ago, Russia was selling a product to a customer, and it's their problem if they'd further find alternatives for it. From the Ukrainian perspective, this is clearly yet another arm-twisting by Putin, who's using the one lever he's got at his disposal for political blackmail: energy resources. Of course, for the observer at the sidelines it's clear that the whole conflict is being used by the elites at both sides, and by extension, the ones who'll likely be winning in the end from the whole situation are the US and West European oil/gas giants who'll be commissioned to drill in Ukraine. The hectic lobbying has already begun, even from the topmost levels. Fracking, here we come. America, aw hell yeah!
Meanwhile, the rumors (or Kremlin spin if you like, depending on your standpoint) of Western mercenaries effectively acting as death/torture squads across East Ukraine and terrorizing the local pro-Russian populace on behalf of the Kiev forces, have become ever more persistent. Still thinking this is gonna end well? Still believing anyone wants this to end well?
(no subject)
Date: 17/6/14 13:41 (UTC)Ehhhh... now I'm confused.
(no subject)
Date: 17/6/14 14:08 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 17/6/14 14:19 (UTC)P.S.: One more way to hide a theft: http://rt.com/news/166532-gas-pipeline-blast-ukraine/ (http://rt.com/news/166532-gas-pipeline-blast-ukraine/)
(no subject)
Date: 17/6/14 16:46 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 17/6/14 16:55 (UTC)Not enough gas in the pipe? Buy more! Still not enough? Buy still more! I see no problem, if it`s not about the bills.
(no subject)
Date: 17/6/14 17:23 (UTC)I think both you and I know what this is about. Unless you'd like to take Kremlin's propaganda at face value, in which case, more power to you (pun unintended).
(no subject)
Date: 17/6/14 18:10 (UTC)(frozen) (no subject)
Date: 18/6/14 00:33 (UTC)(frozen) (no subject)
Date: 18/6/14 06:16 (UTC)Apparently I am stupid, is that what you're saying? Well, ain't that so very nice.
(frozen) (no subject)
Date: 18/6/14 06:25 (UTC)Personal attacks WILL NOT be tolerated on this community. That's the whole point of its very first rule. If you haven't acquainted yourself with the rules, that's entirely your problem, not anyone else's. Ignorance is not an excuse.
So there.
In case you're unaware of what this means, have a read (http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/1301765.html).
Be informed that your next such occasion would result in a temporary suspension.
(no subject)
Date: 17/6/14 14:33 (UTC)Same thing about the South Stream now. It's being used as a political tool by both sides. And tiny countries like mine are trapped in the middle of these geopolitical games. One day there'll be a pipeline from the Black Sea coast to Italy, the next day Europe decides it should pressure us into scrapping the project "temporarily", just to spite Putin. All the while, the bottom-line being economic profit, pesky insignificant transit countries like Ukraine, Poland and Bulgaria be damned.
And yes, we've had our own share of US politicians lobbying for various US corporations, like Monsanto (the GMO issue, which we almost budged on, but for the immense pressure from the public that prevented it), and now the whole fracking thing.
Whoever thought this is about freedom and democracy is a fucking toddler.
(no subject)
Date: 17/6/14 23:45 (UTC)Shipping off unmarked tanks either shows balls of brass or a lack of understanding about the capabilities of spy satellites, but cutting off gas shouldn't surprise anyone. Why else would Russia have loaned so much money if not to use it as leverage later, it's not just a cheap way of buying influence, it's a way that pays interest. Venezuelans should take notes for the next time they borrow a billion from Russia or China.
(no subject)
Date: 18/6/14 00:36 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 18/6/14 02:22 (UTC)* "Kiev wants to pay $268.5 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas - the price it had been offered when Yanukovich was in power"
* "Moscow had sought to keep the price at the 2009 contract level of $485 per 1,000 cubic meters"
* Moscow offered "$385, which brings it broadly into line with what Russia charges other European countries. In other words, the delta was less than $60, and certainly a "fair" offer to Ukraine considering it is what Europe pays." (Actually it's LESS than what Europe pays, has no volume commitment - i.e., it allows Ukraine to purchase as much or little gas as it wants, and is a fix rate for multiple years at a LOW SUMMER TIME PRICE.)
* "It wasn't low enough for Kiev, which certainly is out of money once again having to spend the bulk of its IMF/EU aid to keep its military armed, and the only logical outcome - one in which the country would no longer receive something for nothing - transpired."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-16/russia-halts-gas-supplies-ukraine
So why don't Ukrainians start paying their bills like the rest of the world instead of their customary cheap manipulations to paint it as something political? Or they prefer to terrorize both Russia and Europe by blowing up gas pipelines on their territory (http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/17/world-war-iii-ukrainian-leader-threatens-to-blow-up-russias-gas-pipelines/) instead?
(no subject)
Date: 18/6/14 06:20 (UTC)Do you guys in the Russian forums receive some sort of special training in douchebaggery? Have you read the rules of this community before posting?
(no subject)
Date: 18/6/14 02:26 (UTC)There is no reason for Russia to give them a discount, and many reasons to screw them really hard for their constant threats and provocations against Russian and Russian interests. Meanwhile the Ukrainians continue to face more austerity, more pension cuts, higher prices for food and gas, and an oppressive fascist government that stamps out any dissent.
Well, one my argue that Ukrainians deserved to get screwed, punishment for stupidly overthrowing one old fat oligarch, replacing him with another old fat oligarch, while losing Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, and most of their economy.They keep insulting and threatening Russia, the only country that would genuinely help them. Meanwhile, the rest of Europe and the US is trying to maximize their exploitation of Ukraine.
(no subject)
Date: 18/6/14 07:32 (UTC)Any source for this?
(no subject)
Date: 18/6/14 08:21 (UTC)How in the world would Ukraine possibly threaten Russia? Oh I get it. Without Ukraine, Putin's pipe dream of a neo-imperial Eurasian empire practically becomes moot. That's a threat of some sorts, I suppose.
It's amazing what a stunningly overwhelming majority of the Russian populace has taken the state propaganda hook, line, and sinker. How do they call Kool-Aid over there in Russia?
(no subject)
Date: 18/6/14 09:41 (UTC)Help is not usually a synonym for invade and annex.
(no subject)
Date: 24/6/14 20:21 (UTC)Speaking about compromise... Let me think... Russian politicians visited Maidan and kept the mood of protest? Nope. Russia escalatŠµd the whole situation and sent mercenaries to support conflict? Nope. Russia said, that such kind of revolutionary movement is okey for democracy promoting? Nope. Russia said, that Ukraine's economy will improve after protests and new goverment election? Nope. Russia denied civilians deaths and nationalistic terror against russian people? Nope. This is all US and Europe misconceptions and provocation rhetoric.
Well, what compromises are you talking about at such background? There is no compromises at war.
(no subject)
Date: 24/6/14 20:35 (UTC)That's some good denialist self-delusion right there. Suddenly, those Russian troops in Crimea who weren't "exactly Russian troops" but then turned out to be exactly that, and those pro-Russian paralimitaries in East Ukraine who are not "exactly supported by Russia" but then turn out to be exactly that... are forgotten, as if they never existed - right?
The Kremlin propaganda seems to be working perfectly, that's for sure.
(no subject)
Date: 24/6/14 21:02 (UTC)Suddenly, those Russian troops in Crimea who weren't "exactly Russian troops" but then turned out to be exactly that, and those pro-Russian paralimitaries in East Ukraine who are not "exactly supported by Russia" but then turn out to be exactly that... are forgotten, as if they never existed - right?
You belive, that forces, which maintain order in Crimea before it join Russian Federation, belongs to Russian Federation army? ))) That Russia will risk to unmask the whole operation by using own troops before the time for legal army operation will come? ))) Well, speculations, propaganda and guesswork really making deal. In fact, history with notorious "polite people" is much easier than you think. Or want to think, no matter.
But its really much funny to see, that you don't want Russia to defend russian people. I want to remind that all situation with Crimea started only after US approved coup and Ukraine Nazi terror against russian-speaking population. Or you thought, that Russian Federation will look at this with smiles, like Europe and applaud? One man already had thoughts like that and in the end he had to chew his tie.
(no subject)
Date: 24/6/14 21:48 (UTC)...but...
The one who seems confused is yourself. There either is a war, or there isn't. You can't have it both ways. So, again, who exactly does Russia imagine itself to be at war with?
The forces "which maintain order" were Russian troops, Putin already reluctantly admitted that (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/17/putin-ukraine_n_5165913.html) (after he had previously denied it several times, i.e. he was initially lying).
Oh, so they were lying at first, so as not to unmask the whole operation, right? Then they're liars, Putin is a liar. He had been on record lying that those weren't Russian troops, and even now after he has admitted that they were, you're lying that they were merely "forces to maintain order". These troops are invaders, enforcing the annexation of another country's sovereign territory by force, expelling local people at gunpoint and appropriating the territory of a neighboring country, despite the trilateral agreement that Russia had previously signed with Ukraine, promising to guarantee its territorial integrity in return for Ukraine scrapping its nuclear arsenal. Ukraine has done its part of the deal, Russia has not. So who's the cheating liar here?
This sentence doesn't make any sense, in whichever mockery of a language you may've attempted to express it.
If you're going to keep using those fake strawman arguments, I don't see much use in continuing this conversation, do you?
(no subject)
Date: 25/6/14 08:06 (UTC)I open this video and didn't hear, that Putin said something about Russian troops. Everything was said by american journalist.
What exectly Putin said in ITAR TASS interview about Crimea situation, that "Russian millitary was helping Crimea self-deffence forces (http://glavred.info/politika/putin-priznal-chto-v-krymu-za-spinoy-boevikov-stoyal-rossiyskiy-specnaz-277254.html)". So, no need to juggle: there was Local Citizans of Crimea Self-Deffence with tactics support of officers from Russian base, that legally located on the territory of Crimea. No Russian Federation troops used in maintaining order operation .
And it was much legally then US Naval Facilities Engineering Command activities (https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=2bb691b61c59be3a68180bd8c614a0cb&tab=core&_cview=1) in Cimea.
It was an adequate response to Nuland cookies. As US and EU authorities lying in discussing the whole situation, I saw no base for Putin to tell the whole truth. Time of two-way-standarts politics passed.
If you're going to keep using those fake strawman arguments, I don't see much use in continuing this conversation, do you?
Never forced anyone to hold a conversation, if someone don't want. You are free to go. But its a fact, opened for everyone, who want to seek information outside CNN: its a Citizan War in Ukraine, started by radicals and now they are killing russian people with support of new Ukraine goverment.
So before accusing someone of lying, try to issue in details of whole situation without juggle and take a look at mote in own eye.
(no subject)
Date: 25/6/14 22:09 (UTC)Let's stop pretending that this is anything but a power struggle for geopolitical domination. This isn't a liberation struggle on Russia's part.
So instead of taking Kremlin's propaganda hook, line and sinker, try to transcend the one-sided story that's being presented to you by your domestic propaganda machine.
Good to know at such an early stage of the conversation that you were never interested in a constructive debate in the first place.
(frozen) (no subject)
Date: 26/6/14 10:45 (UTC)Funny to hear this from American propaganda consumer )))
Let's stop pretending that this is anything but a power struggle for geopolitical domination.
Time of pretending past away. Its to time tio show, that there are more, than one player in geopolitics. All what happened in Ukraine is an answer for American attemps to create US gegemony in the world.
I understand that it is difficult for you to understand the whole situation, cause while Russian looking for information from different sources, americans limited by TV. We are laughing at fact, that americans consume only what they were treated by internal official mass-media )))
Well, its your choise. It will be veru painfull for americans to realize what really happened.
Good to know at such an early stage of the conversation that you were never interested in a constructive debate in the first place.
You expecting something else after your unsubstantiated insults, ignoring facts and interlocutor bullying? Lol )))
You began to impose your point of view, as you were taught at the State Department, and even never try to find out more information outside your instructions.
If you call this kind of conversation "a constructive debate", than you need some more time to learn more about dialogue conduction, my little State Department fan.
(no subject)
Date: 26/6/14 10:55 (UTC)Exactly what I said. So you admit that this isn't about saving Russians, it's a response to a geopolitical challenge. Let's stop pretending that it's otherwise, as your propaganda machine would have you believe.
I'm neither American nor do I "consume" American news outlets or American TV. But nice try anyway. And I'm just going to ignore your insults, and let the moderators deal with you as they deem appropriate.
(frozen) (no subject)
Date: 26/6/14 11:00 (UTC)And no one has forced you to join this community, but if you've decided to join it, that means you've essentially subscribed to its terms of use, i.e. its rules.
Have you read the rules of this place? You actually needn't go any further beyond the very first one in this case, namely:
1. Try to be civil. If you must attack, attack the opinion and not the person. Name-calling will not be tolerated.
So let's see.
> American propaganda consumer
> it is difficult for you to understand the whole situation
> limited by TV
> as you were taught at the State Department
> never try to find out more information outside your instructions
> my little State Department fan
At this point, I think we've had enough of this bullshit.
Be informed that the very next word of even subtle personal attack on your part will result in you immediately flying out through the door, and being tossed back to wherever you came from. This isn't one of those Russian online forums where you can hurl insults all around with impunity, and if you haven't realized that by now, the problem is entirely yours. Do we have clarity on the matter?