The 360° turn
30/1/14 20:17![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsWe don't want experiments, we want stability. That's how the predominant moods among the Egyptians could be read as of now. They've overwhelmingly supported the new constitution on a referendum. The problem is that it very much resembles the old one from the Mubarak times.
The Gaddafi-style 98% support for the constitution effectively legitimizes the chosen course that the new regime has taken after the military coup against Mohammed Mursi. Sure, at least on paper the new constitution does include guarantees for the religious freedoms, and limitations to the presidential prerogatives (and the number of presidential terms). But meanwhile it also grants the military a sustained and full control on the doings of the military. Now they'll be appointing their own minister of defense, and for a 8 year period. That creates, or rather, legitimizes a state within the state.
This wasn't just a vote for the document itself. It was a vote for the process that it embodies. It's also legitimation of General Sisi. The Egyptians have practically backtracked on all achievements of the Tahrir revolution. The symbols of the old regime will be restored: the police state, media censorship, even the personality cult. And the majority of the populace seem OK with all that. It seems they've chosen the well-known old stuff for the sake of stability. They're fed up with all the turmoil, the political back-stabbing, the economic woes. Their country has been plunging downwards for the last few years. And they're not so enthusiastic about democracy any more.
(Note Obama on the background)
"He stands straight and tall, impeccably attired and starched from head to toe. His freshly washed countenance and youthful zeal shield a Herculean strength and nerves of steel. He wears the feathers of a dove but has the piercing eyes of a hawk... Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi’s name lit up the darkness", prominent Egyptian actress Lubna Abdel Aziz wrote in the Al Akram newspaper. And no, these words are no attempt at political satire, or a jab or anything. That's not The Onion. That's a genuinely serious text that illustrates Egypt's newly found mania for a new dear leader, albeit just a minister of defense (for now). The personality cult could be seen everywhere, from car bumper-stickers to bracelets and chocolates displaying the blessed mug of the holy general. All of that reminds who's really running the country.
The weird Sisi-love shows a deeply confused nation in desperate search of a new icon it could rally around. Right now the Egyptians don't have any national figure that they could idolize and strive to emulate. The general sense is that the country is floating down the current, so people may be trying to grip at any straw they could come across. And right now, there's no one else but Sisi that even remotely approaches that role. So there he is, presumably the right person at the right time. And he's more than happy to seize the moment.
There are serious efforts behind the maintenance of this mania. On one side, the media are being held on a short leash. On the other, the brutal suppression of the MB protests last summer shows what would happen to any voices of dissent. And this intimidation is not solely directed at the Egyptians. The Qatari TV Al Jazeera (supporter of the MB) is banned from airing in Egypt, their signal blocked. Journalists from Al Jazeera have been arrested (two were detained in December under charges of belonging to a terror cell). In fact they were preparing an interview with the MB. The arrests followed shortly, and sent a clear message to anyone who would consider voicing support of MB. Apparently, this has achieved the intended goal. Now the media in Egypt are doing their best to stay the hell away from the Brothers, refrain from interviewing, even filming them. By the way, those journalists are still rotting behind bars, despite the international protests involving the journalist guild. And they'll likely be charged.
The second front of action of the authorities is even more radical. After arresting scores of MB supporters, the military junta has started persecuting their spiritual leaders, and jailing them too. The whole organization was declared a terrorist group in December. Except, the authorities still haven't demonstrated how the MB are behind the car bombings in Sinai, or the attacks on the security forces throughout the country. In fact the Brothers have repeatedly condemned violence, and in most cases the evidence points to a group called Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (which has taken responsibility, too). Obviously, the truth matters no more anyway.
Openly expressing support for the MB, or even mentioning them, is now considered a crime. Some private TV channels are even urging the "honest citizenry" to join "brotherly courts" of some sorts: whoever has any info on relatives, neighbors and colleagues who supposedly sympathize with the Brothers, could report on them at a special phone number in the ministry of the interior. Sounds familiar?
What's more, even displaying the MB protest symbol, a stretched hand with a folded thumb, could now bring you to jail. Even publishing a pic of yourself on FB showing the sign could get you prosecuted. There are reports that the authorities have opened a few new jails with a total capacity of half a million. Anyone showing dissent or discontent could end up there, as is the case with those who've continued to insist for the restoration of Mursi at the presidential post, or those who've been publishing footage and input from the protest camps on their blogs. After the camp was dismantled, many of those either ended up in jail or just disappeared with no trace, their blogs now deactivated.
As might be expected, every action generates the respective counter-action. The pressure on the Islamists may've managed to scare them, but not destroy them. They called for boycotting the referendum, and there were blockades of key transportation hubs on the day of the vote, and protests, even a dozen killed. They're now on the path of a self-fulfilling prophecy, stepping up their violent activity across the country, hoping to gain a more favorable position for possible negotiations with the regime. Doing their best to deligitimize the authorities, including at an international level. This includes attempts to sue the Egyptian military for crimes against humanity at the ICC in the Hague, although Egypt is not even member of the organization.
Since membership and support for the MB is now punishable with jail, the question arises what would happen with the millions of people who actually brought them to power in the first place. All those people with Islamist convictions will now probably shift to the more extremist Al-Nur party, who are Salafi. It's not been subject to prosecution because it's playing in tandem with the state. The Salafists have always been close allies to the secret services and the military. That's why they weren't suppressed by Mubarak, either. For example they're supporting Sisi at the moment: during his TV address after Mursi was brought down, Sisi was sitting next to the Nur chairman, which says a lot.
Ironically, the secular activists who set the stage for the Tahrir events in 2011 and helped bring down Mursi in 2013 are also falling under the boot of the military regime. The three long-time frontmen, Ahmed Maher, Mohammed Adel and Ahmed Douma all got a year in jail, plus a steep fine for organizing "illegal" protests. All of this, thanks to a new law against mass rallies which practically bans any public acts of protest. Some of the groups that supported the coup against Mursi now may feel betrayed. Certainly, things haven't turned out the way they had been hoping.
The situation has deteriorated pretty fast, quite frankly. Some may be hoping that the escalation and the repressions against dissenters on one side, and the increased violence against the security forces on the other, would gradually subside as the referendum slips further back into the past. In fact both sides may be doing all this in order to gain a better position at potential future negotiations. Obviously, neither of them is weak enough to be squashed just like that, without too much disruption of the country. And Egypt already is in quite some trouble economically and financially. So, necessity would likely urge them to quit hitting each other and start talking eventually.
Indeed, Egypt's fundamental problems remain the same. Too many people of high education staying jobless, plus a weak (and ever weakening) economy that can't sustain the populace. Egypt continues to desperately rely on tourism and direct foreign investment, just like it did at the time of Mubarak. But that scheme is unworkable in the long run. All major industries are virtually shut. The whole idea is screwed up from the onset.
The exodus of capital continues at an alarming rate. The economy is on life systems only thanks to the Gulf monarchies. The total aid from the Saudis, UAE and Kuwait amounts to $12 billion. Meanwhile, the desperately needed reforms are nowhere in sight - like dropping the subsidies for fuel and bread for example. No one on the tops seems to have the guts to poke into that wound any time soon, because they don't know if that wouldn't backfire on them politically. So really, Egypt is floating along with the current. And it could start irreversibly plummeting to the bottom at some point.
As cynical as it may sound, an Egypt ruled by a pharaoh-like iron fist, with clear leaders with whom one could negotiate along clear, simple rules, seems most convenient for everybody at this point. The changes of the Arab spring (excluding Tunisia, where the politicians somehow managed to get to some agreement, after all) have turned the region into an even more unstable and unpredictable partner. That's why Russia is happy that they have a new client for their arms industry in Egypt. Israel is hoping they'd be able to rely on their old "good neighbor". And the US, which has curiously failed to clearly define Mursi's ousting as a "coup" to this point, is about to unlock $1.5 billion of military aid to Egypt. All indications show that the "good old times" are coming back again, values like "freedom" and "democracy" be damned.
Still, it's true that the Mubarak era could not be copied 1-to-1 exactly as it was. The achievements of the 2011 revolution may now seem completely erased and shat upon, but there's the new mentality that remains. New forces have been unleashed, a new manner of political behavior that wasn't seen before. Although in many cases the differences could prove only cosmetic. In Mubarak's time for example, elections were a farcical circus. People were either prevented from accessing the ballots, or were being intimidated into voting the "right way". Today, all of this can't happen. All the authorities could do is react after the event (which in itself might be a powerful deterrent factor, but still it's not as direct as it used to be). But with a whole chunk of the populace virtually excluded politically, 98% results like that on the cosntitutional referendum are more likely to become a norm rather than exception.
Most importantly, Egypt urgently needs to restore the world's trust, so the millions of tourists and the foreign investors could come back, before both the country's historic legacy and the foundations of its economy have completely fallen apart. This might explain how come the Egyptians have voluntarily opted for stability at the price of their civil freedoms, and the rest of the world seems to be cautiously OK with all that. But the main question remains unanswered: how long will the land of the pharaohs be able to carry on like this, and how many more times will it have to repeat the old mistakes before the whole thing crumbles down in flames eventually?
The Gaddafi-style 98% support for the constitution effectively legitimizes the chosen course that the new regime has taken after the military coup against Mohammed Mursi. Sure, at least on paper the new constitution does include guarantees for the religious freedoms, and limitations to the presidential prerogatives (and the number of presidential terms). But meanwhile it also grants the military a sustained and full control on the doings of the military. Now they'll be appointing their own minister of defense, and for a 8 year period. That creates, or rather, legitimizes a state within the state.
This wasn't just a vote for the document itself. It was a vote for the process that it embodies. It's also legitimation of General Sisi. The Egyptians have practically backtracked on all achievements of the Tahrir revolution. The symbols of the old regime will be restored: the police state, media censorship, even the personality cult. And the majority of the populace seem OK with all that. It seems they've chosen the well-known old stuff for the sake of stability. They're fed up with all the turmoil, the political back-stabbing, the economic woes. Their country has been plunging downwards for the last few years. And they're not so enthusiastic about democracy any more.
(Note Obama on the background)
"He stands straight and tall, impeccably attired and starched from head to toe. His freshly washed countenance and youthful zeal shield a Herculean strength and nerves of steel. He wears the feathers of a dove but has the piercing eyes of a hawk... Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi’s name lit up the darkness", prominent Egyptian actress Lubna Abdel Aziz wrote in the Al Akram newspaper. And no, these words are no attempt at political satire, or a jab or anything. That's not The Onion. That's a genuinely serious text that illustrates Egypt's newly found mania for a new dear leader, albeit just a minister of defense (for now). The personality cult could be seen everywhere, from car bumper-stickers to bracelets and chocolates displaying the blessed mug of the holy general. All of that reminds who's really running the country.
The weird Sisi-love shows a deeply confused nation in desperate search of a new icon it could rally around. Right now the Egyptians don't have any national figure that they could idolize and strive to emulate. The general sense is that the country is floating down the current, so people may be trying to grip at any straw they could come across. And right now, there's no one else but Sisi that even remotely approaches that role. So there he is, presumably the right person at the right time. And he's more than happy to seize the moment.
There are serious efforts behind the maintenance of this mania. On one side, the media are being held on a short leash. On the other, the brutal suppression of the MB protests last summer shows what would happen to any voices of dissent. And this intimidation is not solely directed at the Egyptians. The Qatari TV Al Jazeera (supporter of the MB) is banned from airing in Egypt, their signal blocked. Journalists from Al Jazeera have been arrested (two were detained in December under charges of belonging to a terror cell). In fact they were preparing an interview with the MB. The arrests followed shortly, and sent a clear message to anyone who would consider voicing support of MB. Apparently, this has achieved the intended goal. Now the media in Egypt are doing their best to stay the hell away from the Brothers, refrain from interviewing, even filming them. By the way, those journalists are still rotting behind bars, despite the international protests involving the journalist guild. And they'll likely be charged.
The second front of action of the authorities is even more radical. After arresting scores of MB supporters, the military junta has started persecuting their spiritual leaders, and jailing them too. The whole organization was declared a terrorist group in December. Except, the authorities still haven't demonstrated how the MB are behind the car bombings in Sinai, or the attacks on the security forces throughout the country. In fact the Brothers have repeatedly condemned violence, and in most cases the evidence points to a group called Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (which has taken responsibility, too). Obviously, the truth matters no more anyway.
Openly expressing support for the MB, or even mentioning them, is now considered a crime. Some private TV channels are even urging the "honest citizenry" to join "brotherly courts" of some sorts: whoever has any info on relatives, neighbors and colleagues who supposedly sympathize with the Brothers, could report on them at a special phone number in the ministry of the interior. Sounds familiar?
What's more, even displaying the MB protest symbol, a stretched hand with a folded thumb, could now bring you to jail. Even publishing a pic of yourself on FB showing the sign could get you prosecuted. There are reports that the authorities have opened a few new jails with a total capacity of half a million. Anyone showing dissent or discontent could end up there, as is the case with those who've continued to insist for the restoration of Mursi at the presidential post, or those who've been publishing footage and input from the protest camps on their blogs. After the camp was dismantled, many of those either ended up in jail or just disappeared with no trace, their blogs now deactivated.
As might be expected, every action generates the respective counter-action. The pressure on the Islamists may've managed to scare them, but not destroy them. They called for boycotting the referendum, and there were blockades of key transportation hubs on the day of the vote, and protests, even a dozen killed. They're now on the path of a self-fulfilling prophecy, stepping up their violent activity across the country, hoping to gain a more favorable position for possible negotiations with the regime. Doing their best to deligitimize the authorities, including at an international level. This includes attempts to sue the Egyptian military for crimes against humanity at the ICC in the Hague, although Egypt is not even member of the organization.
Since membership and support for the MB is now punishable with jail, the question arises what would happen with the millions of people who actually brought them to power in the first place. All those people with Islamist convictions will now probably shift to the more extremist Al-Nur party, who are Salafi. It's not been subject to prosecution because it's playing in tandem with the state. The Salafists have always been close allies to the secret services and the military. That's why they weren't suppressed by Mubarak, either. For example they're supporting Sisi at the moment: during his TV address after Mursi was brought down, Sisi was sitting next to the Nur chairman, which says a lot.
Ironically, the secular activists who set the stage for the Tahrir events in 2011 and helped bring down Mursi in 2013 are also falling under the boot of the military regime. The three long-time frontmen, Ahmed Maher, Mohammed Adel and Ahmed Douma all got a year in jail, plus a steep fine for organizing "illegal" protests. All of this, thanks to a new law against mass rallies which practically bans any public acts of protest. Some of the groups that supported the coup against Mursi now may feel betrayed. Certainly, things haven't turned out the way they had been hoping.
The situation has deteriorated pretty fast, quite frankly. Some may be hoping that the escalation and the repressions against dissenters on one side, and the increased violence against the security forces on the other, would gradually subside as the referendum slips further back into the past. In fact both sides may be doing all this in order to gain a better position at potential future negotiations. Obviously, neither of them is weak enough to be squashed just like that, without too much disruption of the country. And Egypt already is in quite some trouble economically and financially. So, necessity would likely urge them to quit hitting each other and start talking eventually.
Indeed, Egypt's fundamental problems remain the same. Too many people of high education staying jobless, plus a weak (and ever weakening) economy that can't sustain the populace. Egypt continues to desperately rely on tourism and direct foreign investment, just like it did at the time of Mubarak. But that scheme is unworkable in the long run. All major industries are virtually shut. The whole idea is screwed up from the onset.
The exodus of capital continues at an alarming rate. The economy is on life systems only thanks to the Gulf monarchies. The total aid from the Saudis, UAE and Kuwait amounts to $12 billion. Meanwhile, the desperately needed reforms are nowhere in sight - like dropping the subsidies for fuel and bread for example. No one on the tops seems to have the guts to poke into that wound any time soon, because they don't know if that wouldn't backfire on them politically. So really, Egypt is floating along with the current. And it could start irreversibly plummeting to the bottom at some point.
As cynical as it may sound, an Egypt ruled by a pharaoh-like iron fist, with clear leaders with whom one could negotiate along clear, simple rules, seems most convenient for everybody at this point. The changes of the Arab spring (excluding Tunisia, where the politicians somehow managed to get to some agreement, after all) have turned the region into an even more unstable and unpredictable partner. That's why Russia is happy that they have a new client for their arms industry in Egypt. Israel is hoping they'd be able to rely on their old "good neighbor". And the US, which has curiously failed to clearly define Mursi's ousting as a "coup" to this point, is about to unlock $1.5 billion of military aid to Egypt. All indications show that the "good old times" are coming back again, values like "freedom" and "democracy" be damned.
Still, it's true that the Mubarak era could not be copied 1-to-1 exactly as it was. The achievements of the 2011 revolution may now seem completely erased and shat upon, but there's the new mentality that remains. New forces have been unleashed, a new manner of political behavior that wasn't seen before. Although in many cases the differences could prove only cosmetic. In Mubarak's time for example, elections were a farcical circus. People were either prevented from accessing the ballots, or were being intimidated into voting the "right way". Today, all of this can't happen. All the authorities could do is react after the event (which in itself might be a powerful deterrent factor, but still it's not as direct as it used to be). But with a whole chunk of the populace virtually excluded politically, 98% results like that on the cosntitutional referendum are more likely to become a norm rather than exception.
Most importantly, Egypt urgently needs to restore the world's trust, so the millions of tourists and the foreign investors could come back, before both the country's historic legacy and the foundations of its economy have completely fallen apart. This might explain how come the Egyptians have voluntarily opted for stability at the price of their civil freedoms, and the rest of the world seems to be cautiously OK with all that. But the main question remains unanswered: how long will the land of the pharaohs be able to carry on like this, and how many more times will it have to repeat the old mistakes before the whole thing crumbles down in flames eventually?
(no subject)
Date: 30/1/14 21:20 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 31/1/14 14:04 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 31/1/14 18:54 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 31/1/14 19:02 (UTC)I do not agree that Egypt urgently needs to restore the world's trust. That can come later. What it needs most is to establish domestic civility and distance itself from agitators on either side of the Arab/Israeli divide. The world's trust will follow in its turn.
(no subject)
Date: 3/2/14 13:24 (UTC)So many assumptions there. For now, Egypt doesn't need the world's (by which you mean the affluent West's) "trust" (whatever that is worth). Tourism and foreign investment are only required if the country wants to race back into its fixed position in the global capitalist economy and continue to produce up to *our* standards, which says nothing to me about the needs of its people
In truth, what Egypt needs is for its whole people to be able to have a say in their own political and economic process, without military-backed demagogue rigging the game, so that they can work together to ensure everyone is taken care of. In my view, this doesn't require foreign tourism or investment, but a rejection of dehumanizing capitalist economics for a libertarian socialist practical vision.
But dictators make sure they have the guns, civil wars are costly bloody affairs where the heroic seldom win and its so much easier to let go of one's own conscience and responsibilities to let some General Sissy (hey its like a pun! : D) take care of it all.
Like you said, most likely the same mistakes will be made and tragedies will befall. Until enough people become willing to do what it takes to try something truly different, they have themselves to blame for half the problem.
(no subject)
Date: 3/2/14 15:52 (UTC)That's the long-term need, indeed.
That, of course, doesn't remove the urgency of getting their economy back on its feet even one bit. And which industry does Egypt heavily rely upon to sustain its economy? Which parallel reality do you inhabit where tourism holds no significance to Egypt's economy whatsoever?
Assumptions are in the eye of the beholder. If you genuinely believe democracy precedes having bread on the table in the list of priorities of homo sapiens, then I suppose this conversation is beyond finding a common ground.
(no subject)
Date: 3/2/14 17:18 (UTC)No I dont believe that for the record. Its just a hard thing to swallow seeing the same types responsible get off again and again.
(no subject)
Date: 3/2/14 17:56 (UTC)Btw,
Which other ones did you have in mind, save for this one that you described? "Many" means more than one.
(no subject)
Date: 5/2/14 15:55 (UTC)There wasn't enough information given to convince me that this was the only way to keep food on the table for now and concerns like equalizing economic and political power would have to be, as usual, put off to some never-coming time in the future.
Those were the kinds of assumptions I was referring to.
(no subject)
Date: 5/2/14 17:33 (UTC)