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talkpoliticsBeen re-reading some of the most emblematic novels by Isaac Asimov these days, and I came across a mention of the 1964 international fair in New York, where various companies were presenting what they were promising to be the technologies of the future. Back then, visitors and tech fans were gaping in awe at the sight of the prototypes of phones with video screens (probably the grand-parents of today's Skype or something), which were expected to allow people to see their interlocutor's face while talking with them.
Being naturally inspired by all the stuff he saw (and even more by the stuff he didn't see), Isaac Asimov wrote an article for the NYT, where he presented his vision of a possible international fair of that type which would happen half a century later, in 2014. And no surprise, he came very close on quite a few accounts. As early as the mid 60s, he foresaw the decline of the extensive agrarian model, the demographic boom, the machine invasion into our homes. Some of his forecasts came to be, others are still in the sphere of sci-fi, and some big things he missed altogether (like climate change?) But it's fascinating to compare his visions with actual reality, nevertheless.
Probably one of his most notable statements was that in 2014 "we'd be able to phone people living on the Moon". He imagined those convos to happen thanks to a "laser beam", but with a few seconds of delay, due to the distance. Then, after the Moon, he predicted people would move on to Mars after building the appropriate spacecraft. This forecast was made 60 years before the Dutch company Mars One started their project which is planning to send humans to Mars by 2025.
He also believed in 2014 electric batteries would be powered by radioactive isotopes, produced in nuclear power stations, and would provide "half of all the electricity needed by humanity". Further, he assumed that pedestrians would be transported by automatic sidewalks running along the major city roads, and cars would be powered with compressed air.
The 2014 international fair, he believed, would put the emphasis on the development of submarine life, which in his mind would "allow for the better exploration of the ocean resources". He imagined various submarine cities being presened as some kind of real-estate subdivision of the event. Or at least artificial estates floating on platforms at sea - something we're about to see anytime now.
In 2014, he said, medicine would be so advanced, we'd be able to "replace hearts and livers, which would drastically prolong human life". This demographic boom of some sorts would compel some countries to undertake massive birth control campaigns through "rational and humane methods", including reproductive education for adults. The one-child policy was an option he certainly didn't rule out, either.
The last two tendencies that he talked about are particularly disturbing. As early as 1964, Asimov admitted it was possible that in the early 21st century, social inequality would have increased to a dramatic point, and "not all of humanity would have access to the technological achievements of their age". There would be more poverty than at his time, and even if the poor people of the future might happen to be better equipped than their 60s counterparts, they'd still possess much less in relation to the wealthy. So he predicted that the living conditions of the have-nots would actually deteriorate overall, and that would cause social turmoil, with all the political consequences for society.
And the last bit in his piece is about what he calls "the new illness of modernity, boredom and solitude". It would have serious mental, emotional, and ultimately, social consequences. And psychiatry would certainly have a lot of work to do. His conclusion, somewhat pessimistic, and even sounding a bit Marx-style, is that "the few fortunate ones who have creative professions will form the elite of humankind, because they will be the only ones who would not have to serve the machines". Exactly how prophetic this sounds at this point, is a verdict that I'm leaving to you. Personally, to me that last bit still seems way too distant - and that's kind of ironic, provided that he was pretty able to hit quite a few technological targets from the distance of half a century. If we don't count those farms that focus mainly on raising micro-organisms, or that breakfast that could be programmed the night before to be ready the next morning, or the glowing walls replacing lamps and ceiling fixtures, or the floating cars that don't touch the road, or, while we're at it, those kids who are "proficient in binary arithmetic".
Despite all the shots in the dark, pretty impressive job by Asimov if you ask me. I wish he dealt more with the issue of societal collapse, though. The point is, Asimov lived at a time when the world still had a lot of optimism and enthusiasm, a drive for discovery, and science was being largely viewed as the harbinger of a bright future, draped in the fruits of technology. Having read a lot of Asimov's philosophical writings over the years, and now returning with fascination to some of them, I can say one thing: he didn't reflect much in the way of political realities we have nowadays. And that probably speaks more about our time than his. And not in a very nice way.
Being naturally inspired by all the stuff he saw (and even more by the stuff he didn't see), Isaac Asimov wrote an article for the NYT, where he presented his vision of a possible international fair of that type which would happen half a century later, in 2014. And no surprise, he came very close on quite a few accounts. As early as the mid 60s, he foresaw the decline of the extensive agrarian model, the demographic boom, the machine invasion into our homes. Some of his forecasts came to be, others are still in the sphere of sci-fi, and some big things he missed altogether (like climate change?) But it's fascinating to compare his visions with actual reality, nevertheless.
Probably one of his most notable statements was that in 2014 "we'd be able to phone people living on the Moon". He imagined those convos to happen thanks to a "laser beam", but with a few seconds of delay, due to the distance. Then, after the Moon, he predicted people would move on to Mars after building the appropriate spacecraft. This forecast was made 60 years before the Dutch company Mars One started their project which is planning to send humans to Mars by 2025.
He also believed in 2014 electric batteries would be powered by radioactive isotopes, produced in nuclear power stations, and would provide "half of all the electricity needed by humanity". Further, he assumed that pedestrians would be transported by automatic sidewalks running along the major city roads, and cars would be powered with compressed air.
The 2014 international fair, he believed, would put the emphasis on the development of submarine life, which in his mind would "allow for the better exploration of the ocean resources". He imagined various submarine cities being presened as some kind of real-estate subdivision of the event. Or at least artificial estates floating on platforms at sea - something we're about to see anytime now.
In 2014, he said, medicine would be so advanced, we'd be able to "replace hearts and livers, which would drastically prolong human life". This demographic boom of some sorts would compel some countries to undertake massive birth control campaigns through "rational and humane methods", including reproductive education for adults. The one-child policy was an option he certainly didn't rule out, either.
The last two tendencies that he talked about are particularly disturbing. As early as 1964, Asimov admitted it was possible that in the early 21st century, social inequality would have increased to a dramatic point, and "not all of humanity would have access to the technological achievements of their age". There would be more poverty than at his time, and even if the poor people of the future might happen to be better equipped than their 60s counterparts, they'd still possess much less in relation to the wealthy. So he predicted that the living conditions of the have-nots would actually deteriorate overall, and that would cause social turmoil, with all the political consequences for society.
And the last bit in his piece is about what he calls "the new illness of modernity, boredom and solitude". It would have serious mental, emotional, and ultimately, social consequences. And psychiatry would certainly have a lot of work to do. His conclusion, somewhat pessimistic, and even sounding a bit Marx-style, is that "the few fortunate ones who have creative professions will form the elite of humankind, because they will be the only ones who would not have to serve the machines". Exactly how prophetic this sounds at this point, is a verdict that I'm leaving to you. Personally, to me that last bit still seems way too distant - and that's kind of ironic, provided that he was pretty able to hit quite a few technological targets from the distance of half a century. If we don't count those farms that focus mainly on raising micro-organisms, or that breakfast that could be programmed the night before to be ready the next morning, or the glowing walls replacing lamps and ceiling fixtures, or the floating cars that don't touch the road, or, while we're at it, those kids who are "proficient in binary arithmetic".
Despite all the shots in the dark, pretty impressive job by Asimov if you ask me. I wish he dealt more with the issue of societal collapse, though. The point is, Asimov lived at a time when the world still had a lot of optimism and enthusiasm, a drive for discovery, and science was being largely viewed as the harbinger of a bright future, draped in the fruits of technology. Having read a lot of Asimov's philosophical writings over the years, and now returning with fascination to some of them, I can say one thing: he didn't reflect much in the way of political realities we have nowadays. And that probably speaks more about our time than his. And not in a very nice way.
(no subject)
Date: 9/1/14 19:53 (UTC)in his "Foundation" series. Didn't he have people living in domed cities?
Presumably, that would be because the natural environment became
uninhabitable.
For a better sci-fi tale on collapse, you might want to try J. G. Ballard's,
"The Drowned World". I have yet to read it myself, but it sounds like
a good one.
(no subject)
Date: 9/1/14 20:41 (UTC)I can't find it now, but there was a very detailed webpage of NASA's long term planning for future space exploration, assuming the budgets would have been approved, including Wernher von Braun's details (http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/hyperbola/2008/09/von_brauns_1982_nasa_manned_ma/)on a 12 man mission and landing on Mars in 1982 (when Mars and Earth's orbits would be close enough to make such a mission possible).
(no subject)
Date: 9/1/14 20:56 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 10/1/14 14:26 (UTC)For an equally good sci-fi take on another collapse, In the Presence of Mine Enemies is a good adaptation of 1989-91 in an alternate history context. The The Settling Accounts series by the same author is a bit lower in quality and extremely bad in terms of 'realism' to a point where disbelief can't always be suspended. Also I Am Legend. The original book is extremely good.
(no subject)
Date: 10/1/14 14:30 (UTC)it definitely was not the main feature of the story. Psychohistory
and the ability to forecast perfectly the future was its thing.
(no subject)
Date: 10/1/14 14:43 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 10/1/14 09:16 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 10/1/14 14:22 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/1/14 14:58 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/1/14 15:29 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 12/1/14 06:41 (UTC)