[identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
"We're Silvio’s army and if they take away our leader we'll enlist in the Marines", a recent cartoon says on the Corriere della Sera newspaper. It showed the closest aides to former prime-minister Silvio Berlusconi, and there's a play of words: Marina is his eldest daughter, and there's some context behind all that. The conviction against her father for tax fraud and the possibility of having him banned from occupying public posts has fed the expectations that Marina Berlusconi could inherit not just his business empire but also his position in Italian politics. And though she still keeps denying having any such ambitions, the speculations that Italy could get a political dynasty of its own, and the daughter could raise the family name from the ashes, haven't ceased for a minute.


Berlusconi might be saying he won't give up the fight so easily, and given his past record, I'm prone to believing that. But still, the rightist forces in Italy seem to have started a soul-searching process, and they're looking for a new leader of the center-right bloc that was headed by Silvio for two decades. And the name of the 47 y.o. business lady Marina Berlusconi is constantly in the headlines. She's being tipped for heading her daddy's 6.6 billion dollar empire, and the media are forecasting that the political demise of the old fart would pave the road to Marina's ascent to stardom status in Italian politics, similarly to the way the Le Pens created their ancestral tradition in the far-right in France.

The official position of Silvio's party with the rather ironic name "The People of Freedom" is that he should remain at his position. But that's becoming ever more difficult, especially after the president Napolitano announced a few days ago that he had no intention to pardon Berlusconi's conviction for tax fraud, and the Senate announced they'd be voting in October whether Berlusconi should be banned from occupying public posts. Because of his advanced age he can't go to jail so he'll probably stay under house arrest, or do some public job (like cleaning the toilets at the subway or sell bus tickets at a kiosk, woulnd't that be great?) If it turns out he can't run in elections, that'd mean the end of his political career. And all of this is threatening the fragile coalition government of current prime-minister Enrico Letta. That's why the "Freedom" lovers on the right are now urgently looking for other options beyond Silvio. And by the way they'll likely revert to their previous name Forza Italia. Probably as soon as next month, actually

Now, Marina keeps denying that she'd ever succeed her father, and last year she even said that political leadership "cannot be inherited or dynastically transferred", a very nice statement indeed. Besides, her political experience currently amounts at exactly zero. Silvio himself also seems to be against the idea of his eldest daughter getting involved in politics, because he believes the Italian magistrates could treat her the very same way they treated him.

One of Berlusconi's newspapers, Il Giornale, keeps claiming that she's being begged every day to enter politics, but she remains firm and keeps saying No. Maybe because she knows she has to carefully choose the right moment. But it shouldn't be ruled out that she may not have much of a choice if she really wants to preserve her father's legacy. Without their charismatic leader, the "Freedom" folks can't survive much longer. The party is practically in a symbiotic relationship with the wealth and influence generated by Berlusconi's family business, which in turn flourishes upon the political protectionism and cronyism granted by its patron. Many believe that without a member of the Berlusconi family at the helm, the future of the party is doubtful, and so a number of party officials are openly begging Marina to join in, even if only with her name. Perhaps they're imagining a scenario where Silvio will keep ruling from behind the scenes like some kind of puppet-master, while his daughter will be nominally the figurehead in front of society and the media, especially during election campaigns, while defending the business interests of the family.

Whether she'd be recognized and accepted by the party and its voters might be a question of millions of euros. In certain circumstances she could find her place among the "Free", as far as the party is concerned. But the question is more complicated with the voters, because we're talking of millions of people here. She has never been in politics so she remains largely unknown; it's not clear if she has the necessary leadership qualities and communication skills (something a populist party is always in need of). But she is a strong woman and an effective business manager, and everyone who has worked with her is saying she's a good person with principles - much unlike her father, in fact. In any case, Silvio has set the bar so low in that respect that anything that's not him, would be a refreshing change, that's for sure.

But the question remains if she has what it takes to be a true leader of a winning party. For the time being, it seems she's being positively accepted by the party base which feels very strongly about Berlusconi and his family. This doesn't necessarily mean that she has the charisma, since she has seldom appeared in public so far. All that's known about her is that she's married to a former La Scala dancer, has two kids, and the Forbes magazine had her in the list of most influential women for 2007. Her dad's top aide Fedele Confaloniery calls her a "pneumatic drill" because of her hard-line work ethic. She's heading the family holding Fininvest, and its publishing branch Mondadori. She's also on the board of directors of the media company Mediaset and that of the investment bank Mediolanum. People who've worked with her describe her as a demanding, strict boss who's uncompromising during negotiations and firmly avoids publicity.


She entered Fininvest while still very young, then became deputy chairlady in 1996, and CEO in 2005. Silvio practically made her work since childhood. Turns out Mr big boss started bringing Marina to business meetings as early as 1985, where she was listening carefully and taking extensive notes. Her small stature may create the impression of fragility, but from her high heels she's been steering the company like a true admiral, and if she ever enters politics, she could well be able to revolutionize her father's ailing party.

On the other hand, her success at Fininvest is kind of questionable, since the performance of the major driving entity within the holding, Mediaset, is closely related to Berlusconi's political achievements. During Marina's reign of the family's most important firms, Mediaset and Mondadori, they both went through some tough times. At the beginning of this year Mediaset's shares first soared after Silvio's good election result in February. But otherwise they've generally plunged by 60% for the last decade overall, due to the shrinking ad incomes and the tough competition from satellite TV channel Sky Italia and websites like Google and FB.

Now Marina could try to capitalize on her image of a powerful business lady just like her father did when he first entered politics. But his unique talent to maneuver between various interests and to communicate with people is still a very high bar to emulate.

However there doesn't seem to be any other one who could guarantee the survival of Berlusconi's interest. He fears that as soon as he steps down from the scene, his multiple foes will instantly jump in like sharks on flesh and tear his business to pieces, which is a valid concern from his standpoint. Having all that in mind, Marina Berlusconi does look like the best solution for his clique. Whether it'd be also the best thing for her party, or more importantly, for Italy, is another question entirely.

(no subject)

Date: 22/8/13 20:13 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] root-fu.livejournal.com
Interesting.

I wonder if the situation could be compared to Haliburton and the Bush family. Or John Kerry and Heinz ketchup (before it was sold it to Warren Buffett).

Could be some interesting parallels?

(no subject)

Date: 22/8/13 20:19 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
I really don't know what's this obsession of famous people to fuck up their looks (http://www.thelondoneveningpost.com/europe/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Marina-Berlusconi-620x350.jpg) through multiple cosmetic interventions (http://dalje.com/slike/slike_3/r1/g2009/m05/x210203885717998466_8.jpg).

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/13 02:17 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
The statement "cannot be inherited or dynastically transferred" is so obviously false that I take it to mean she fully intends to take over but is planning a bigger entrance than what would be available at this time.

BTW, why don't we ever talk about the scandals in Swiss politics. I'm sure there are some Swiss politicians who have jaywalked, gotten a parking ticket, torn the labels off mattresses or something.

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/13 06:34 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
The minaret ban seems more like an urban planning issue compared with the French banning headscarves. It's not like one can't build a mosque, it just needs to look more like a Swiss chalet or something.

Also, Germany FTW! (http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/man-in-underpants-partied-in-german-government-jet-for-angela-merkel-a-917494.html) This guy has the all-time best answer to the question, "So, what 'cha in for?"

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/13 07:04 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
I guess that's an unintended consequence of being the place where crooked politicians stash their money. Until recently, Swiss politicians haven't had anywhere to put their ill-gotten gains where their constituents wouldn't know about.

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/13 07:55 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
There were people back then?!?

Seriously, could the Swiss bankers be trusted to be discrete if their own mayor hands over a suitcase of money to deposit?

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