Reminds me of the inglorious end of the Polish fracking revolution. The US-sponsored propaganda was huge at the time Poland decided to embrace fracking under the furious pressure from US lobbyists. Talisman Energy, Marathon Oil and other companies stepped in and they promised enormous profits. And for a time everything looked fine. But now they're going on a mass exodus from Poland.
Why? As you pointed out, big oil only invests in easily accessible gas. But the Poland/Belarus/Ukraine gas is 4km deep and more. Not to mention how densely populated that region is, unlike most US fields. So, the complications that don't allow even a short-term return, combined with the specifics of the area, are driving big oil out. And they've literally buried billions of dollars there.
Poland was relying on the promised investment upsurge to boost its economy, to tackle unemployment and ultimately to achieve energy independence from Russia. And for a time it worked. But now that things are slowing down, and fast, right now Poland imports 70% of its gas, and 90% of that is from Russia. And since Russia and Germany (and Sweden) have made that Northern pipeline in a way that bypasses the pesky Poland, the Poles are totally fucked.
Now the 5.3 trillion m3 of gas that the US companies promised, is revised by the Polish experts to a "mere" 800 billion m3. Sure, that amount could still help them achieve energy independence from Russia, but first they'd need foreign investment to drill it, and the impatient foreign companies are already fleeing in panic because the expected returns are nowhere in sight. So now Poland has to redirect its focus once again to coal (way cheaper than gas), and start thinking about nuclear (a nuclear power station is scheduled for 2020), and of course renewables.
And that was just one example.
Ps. An epic overview, btw.
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Date: 8/7/13 16:52 (UTC)Why? As you pointed out, big oil only invests in easily accessible gas. But the Poland/Belarus/Ukraine gas is 4km deep and more. Not to mention how densely populated that region is, unlike most US fields. So, the complications that don't allow even a short-term return, combined with the specifics of the area, are driving big oil out. And they've literally buried billions of dollars there.
Poland was relying on the promised investment upsurge to boost its economy, to tackle unemployment and ultimately to achieve energy independence from Russia. And for a time it worked. But now that things are slowing down, and fast, right now Poland imports 70% of its gas, and 90% of that is from Russia. And since Russia and Germany (and Sweden) have made that Northern pipeline in a way that bypasses the pesky Poland, the Poles are totally fucked.
Now the 5.3 trillion m3 of gas that the US companies promised, is revised by the Polish experts to a "mere" 800 billion m3. Sure, that amount could still help them achieve energy independence from Russia, but first they'd need foreign investment to drill it, and the impatient foreign companies are already fleeing in panic because the expected returns are nowhere in sight. So now Poland has to redirect its focus once again to coal (way cheaper than gas), and start thinking about nuclear (a nuclear power station is scheduled for 2020), and of course renewables.
And that was just one example.
Ps. An epic overview, btw.