Croatia joins 'austerity' EU

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

So Croatia has become the 28th state to join the European Union, the first state to join since 2 other Balkan states, Bulgaria & Romania, joined in January 2007, & the first ex-Yugoslavian state to join since Slovenia joined in May 2004 (& only the second to date). & now Serbia wants to join, too.

Unemployment is now at over 11.2% in Slovenia (it was 8.6% a year ago, & 13.6% in January, the same as in 2004).

The country [back to Croatia] is currently in its 5th year of recession, with unemployment at a record 21% & youth unemployment at 'over 40%' 52.4% (the 3rd-worst in Europe), after 7 years of EU-guided reforms. Corruption is still endemic in Croatia, which is not surprising for a country that was at war less than 2 decades ago. It is the 3rd-poorest country in the EU, after Bulgaria & Romania.

They will not be joining the Eurozone immediately, or the Schengen Area.

How might this affect the people of Croatia & its non-EU neighbours, i.e. Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia & Montenegro? What might be the benefits, & what might be the risks, if any? & for whom?

For example, Bosnia is not permitted to sell food to EU nations because of disagreements between the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina & the Republika Srpska over hygiene regulations, so Bosnia could be losing a major its main trading partner (& vv), due to the Common Agricultural Policy &c.

Some of us remain skeptical about the benefits of the neo-liberal EU project, as we have still not forgotten about the Greeks (joined 2001, at least 27.4% unemployed, more than twice the Eurozone's average) & the Spanish [4th largest economy in the Eurozone] (joined the Eurozone 1999, introduced banknotes & coins 2002, a record 27.2% unemployed recently). But those are just statistics - the human face of the economic crisis is the increase in the rates of general criminality, hard drug abuse, prostitution, suicides, & so on, e.g. the 1,250% increase in HIV/Aids among intravenous drug users in the first 10 months of 2011, compared with 2010, or the decreasing number of people being able to afford to buy a car.



Italy has just achieved an exceptional 12.2% unemployment rate, with a youth unemployment rate of 38.5%.

My opinions on the subject are predictable enough, if you know anything about my general interpretation of global capitalism. Public services get privatised, local industries suffer (local products replaced by foreign products at extra cost, companies & jobs lost). What are yours? I've left so much unsaid, but I'm trying to keep this short & bitter.

Croatia has become the latest member of the EU periphery: Croatia's accession is marked by public anxiety that it will be the latest fall guy of the EU political elite's neoliberal ideology, Eurozone joblessness at record high, inflation up, Eurozone unemployment hits fresh high: jobless rate reached 12.1% across the region in May, with youth unemployment nearing 24%

Comments

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Many claim Croatia has "chosen" a bad moment to join the EU, 10 years too late or something.

Except they didn't choose it. They had been trying to do this for quite a while. And, despite the problems, actually Croatia turns out to be in a much better shape than many of the recent recruits were at the time they joined - even before the crisis struck.

That said, Euroskepticism has never been so high in a newly-joining member, but that's got its objective reasons too.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Oh, and bravo for making your first post. Didn't hurt much, did it? (BUT YOU JUST WAIT!!!)

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

Haha. Thank you.

I am more interested in other people's opinions & information on the subject than in getting my own across (so I have toned some things down), as I am hoping to learn something, although my prejudices should be very clear to everyone, & I could write a small book about the negative effects of Slovenia joining the EU, but then pastorlenny wouldn't be very happy.

I agree with all of your comments, more or less.

I am hoping that some lasting good will come out of Croatia's accession to the EU (e.g. the long-overdue judicial reforms), as I may be emigrating there before the end of this year (&, of course, for other, non-selfish reasons - for those, mainly).

I just don't want Croatia to be economically exploited or culturally degraded, or for any of its neighbours (e.g. poor Bosnia) to be negatively affected by the loss of a major trading partner, & I have a major phobia of the globalisation of corporate capitalism.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

People are now fearing that the most visible and immediate effect of the EU entry would be the prices rising steadily until they reach the West-Europe levels. Didn't quite happen that way in the other recent joinees, but prices did rise a bit there, granted.

The other big thing is regulations and restrictions being imposed from outside. And that's probably the main point of contention with many Euroskeptics within Croatia. But no lunch comes for free, and taking such a major step like joining the Union had its price. Ultimately, it could turn out to be more beneficial than detrimental for Croatia in the long run. If anything, it'll put many things in order there, even if that won't be done entirely voluntarily.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Great post. You may already know about this, but Paul Krugman has a blistering opinion of austerity in the EUZone, but if you don't know about it, here's the link Paul Krugman: Today's Austerity Policies Based On 'A Mythical 70s That Never Was' (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/19/krugman-austerity-policies_n_3303198.html) And an interview with Der Spiegel . (http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-economist-paul-krugman-on-euro-zone-rescue-efforts-a-834566.html)

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

Thank you. :) Excellent links.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Sure thing. A friend of mine is part Croatian, and is back home having a vacation there, I don't know how much tourism is a factor for the economy, but judging from the photos I've seen him post, it's just stunning scenery. Especially for swimming or scuba diving.

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

Tourism accounts for about 1/5 of Croatia's GDP, & with good reason.

Split is possibly my favourite place that I have been to. I stayed in Split & on Brac in Dalmatia last summer, Dubrovnik the year before that, & next week I am going to Pula & Rovinj in Istria for the first time. The plan was then to take the bus to Belgrade, via Zagreb, for a language course, but if I can't enrol on that, then I will probably travel around Croatia for a couple of weeks. I'd recommend it. :)

& then there are so many other beautiful places, such as Plitvice Lakes...

[pastorlenny.livejournal.com]

I had the best time evar in Zagreb, Zadar and Split when I was young and free. And yes, it was mainly because of a sweet Croatian girl. Of course, that was when Tito was still in charge...

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

I was in a 'whirlwind romance' with a Croatian woman from Zagreb last year, but I still haven't been there yet (I met her in Vienna & London, & had to speak with her in English & German). I hate saying so, but I have never seen so many attractive-looking women [Splićanke] in one place as I have in Split.

Zadar looks beautiful & is somewhere that I would very much like to visit as well.

Živi Tito!

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

Holy shit Greece and Spain.

Surprise surprise, austerity made everything fucking worse. How many more years of failure do they need before they realize this?

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

Perhaps it is working, but for whom & how?

In case you're bored... (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUh96oXYt18)

[anfalicious.livejournal.com]

We're facing an election within the next few months that is basically about austerity vs. non-austerity. We don't have the debt and deficit levels of the rest of the OECD so there is no compelling reason to do it now, it's just typical neo-lib ideology refusing to face any real world facts. The annoying thing is that there is almost no talk in the media about how this is the right wing's plan.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

I am reminded of the definition of insanity as doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

I know some people who see the EU as a reincarnation of the Holy Roman Empire. They think it will usher in the Antichrist.

Do you see the EU as a potential route for Europe to get out from under the thumb of NATO, or will it merely perpetuate that archaic alliance?

Is Pula one of those places that Germans like to head to on vacation?

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

I wish. When was NATO ever a good idea?

I am all for a certain type of internationalism, but by that I mean that I am still waiting for the Fifth International...

We could be having a somewhat different discussion about the direction of politics in Europe, if only SYRIZA had done ever so slightly better (by 2.8%) in the Greek elections last year (although we cannot say that for sure) - if only the KKE (4.5% of the vote, 21 seats won) had supported them (http://inter.kke.gr/News/news2012/2012-05-23-arthro). Until the next Greek general election, where is the effective alternative & opposition to the EU's neo-liberal agenda going to come from?

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

If you wait for something, it may never happen. The only way to be sure that it will happen is to go out and do it.

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

Very true.

In the meanwhile, I try to do my own little bit (don't laugh!)

The Croatian political scene is relatively interesting. In my country (the UK) the main 3 parties (as opposed to the U.S.'s main 2 [a ridiculous 98.4% (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20009195) of the vote]) counted for 88.1% (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/) of the votes in the most recent general election. The most recent Croatian parliamentary election was won by a coalition of the SDP, HNS, IDS-DDI & the HSU with 40.4% of the vote, followed by another coalition of the HDZ, HGS & DC with 23.4% of the vote - so the main 2 parties, both in coalitions, only counted for 63.8% of the vote. Even my beloved SRP (http://www.srp.hr/) managed to win 0.22%, & the Croatian Labourists won 5.1% & 6 seats (compare that with the TUSC in the UK election - approximately 0% of the vote, the Respect-Unity Coalition - 0.1%, Trade Union Voice - 0.1%, &c).

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

German tourists recently made up around 20% of Croatia's overall tourist figures, apparently (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2202585/Croatia-set-record-best-year-tourism-history.html), so yes (http://corporate.visa.com/_media/visa-tourism-outlook-croatia-12.pdf). & all of the nudist beaches there are still signposted as "FKK" (Freikörperkultur).

More & more people from the UK are choosing it as a holiday destination recently, as well (http://www.visit-croatia.co.uk/blog/index.php/tag/tourism-stats).

They tend to spend more time in Istria (many drive there), whereas we tend to spend more time in Dalmatia (i.e. Dubrovnik & some of the Adriatic islands, using budget airlines & on package holidays, mainly), if I remember correctly. The first time that I went to Dalmatia (Dubrovnik), all of the Germans that I met (several, mostly on boats) told me that I should go to Poreč anyway. :)

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

We get a significant share of German tourists here in San Francisco. There are even pensions in the area that cater to German speaking nature lovers (Naturfreunde).

[mindstalk.livejournal.com]

I don't see any problem for Croatia in joining the EU, though I also see Schengen as one of the major benefits of the European project; does Croatia not want that, or does the rest of Europe not want to extend work and migration to Croatians?

Joining the euro as designed is the disaster behind all those high unemployment numbers (except for the UK, which adopted austerity policies because of ideological stupidity among the Tories); I've seen headlines saying both that it'll rush in and that Croatia will go slow.

"Public services get privatised, local industries suffer (local products replaced by foreign products at extra cost"

I haven't seen the first as an inherent trend in the EU, and EU regulations seem to do a lot to protect local products of note. Conversely, absent that, local products are typically replaced by foreign products which are *cheaper* (or better, or at least more prestigious), at the expense of local businesses.

(I'm a Krugmanite social democrat; suitably regulated competitive markets are great. "free markets" are a dangerous buzzword.)

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

Croatians have already been working abroad in considerable numbers throughout Western & Central Europe for a long time anyway. When I was wearing a Croatia national team football shirt in Vienna last summer, & the winter before that, I constantly had workers (e.g. a builder, an electrician, supermarket cashiers at Billa, &c) coming up to me to shake my hand &/or trying to speak Croatian with me. There are quite a few Croatian 'gastarbeiters' in Germany, Switzerland & France already, as well. I expect this to increase substantially until the economic situation in Croatia dramatically improves for its citizens - I'm thinking of something proportionally similar to (but less than) the increase in Polish economic migrants that occurred into my native UK following Poland's accession to the EU in 2004 (from '60,711' Polish-born residents in 2001 to '579,000' in 2011).

I see Schengen as one of the major benefits of the European project, too, potentially, inasmuch as it undermines national borders to a certain degree, but therein maybe also lies its biggest problem, as far as the socially & culturally harmful expansion of corporate capitalism is concerned - plus it makes it very easy for some people to migrate to be exploited as cheap labour elsewhere (both into & from out of Croatia), but maybe that is a separate issue. Croatia is being made to wait for it, but at the same time they are also legally obliged to enter it eventually, just like Bulgaria, Cyprus & Romania. The official plan is to enter Schengen by the end of 2015.

Local products are not necessarily replaced by cheaper or better products - sometimes it is at an additional cost to the country importing them (there is economic exploitation within the EU, including the exploitation of member states by member states, & there are various 'membership fees' which do not seem to be getting repaid - again, look at Greece, Spain & Italy, take another look at Slovenia). Outside of the EU, I don't think that the Bosnians who will be negatively affected by their loss of jobs & income could care much about how 'prestigious' the food that the Croats are eating is. Personally, I have eaten very well in Bosnia & Croatia, & I put on a lot more bad weight whilst eating a lot less for more money wherever I go in the EU.

[mindstalk.livejournal.com]

I didn't know they were obliged to enter Schengen. I know the euro is supposed to be obligatory, though Sweden's had a good run of "gosh, we're just not qualified, sorry".

I don't know what's going on with Slovenia. The other three are suffering from the effects of the euro, which I'm willing to believe weren't deliberate, and then of imposed austerity policies to deal with the eurocrisis, which might be deliberate evil or just wilful delusion.

Bosnia might be hurt but I though you were mostly asking about the effect on Croatia. Though reading your link, it looks like loss of cheap imports will hurt Croatians as well. Though also looks like that's an effect of unfortunate interactions between EU regulation and poor Bosnian governance, not anything deeply exploitative.

[peamasii.livejournal.com]

I have mixed feelings about Croatia joining, but I hope it works out well for them, and for the EU it s certainly a priceless central-european asset. My reservations about it have to do with how I see Croatia: an excellent, affordable, close-by vacation destination for many EU citizens, with an amazing Roman/Italian/Austrian cultural heritage and spectacular nature, yet risking to get overdeveloped in the direction of mainstream resorts, hotels, golf courses and casinos. Local industries might lose, while foreign investment will go up. Which means the prices will also go up once it accedes to the eurozone as well.
OTOH, Croatia is definitely up to EU-standards, its infrastructure, education and natural resources are above the norm as far as what I've seen. I've only been to Croatia twice, and mostly in Istria. It was fantastic and way superior in price/quality ratio with any Riviera destination. I'm surprised that it's taken this long for Croatia to accede, it is decades ahead in development when compared to countries like Bulgaria or Romania (my own country FWIW).

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

risking to get overdeveloped in the direction of mainstream resorts, hotels, golf courses & casinos. Local industries might lose, while foreign investment will go up. Which means the prices will also go up once it accedes to the eurozone as well.

This is one of my biggest fears for Croatia, as well. As you say, Croatia has got such an amazing cultural heritage - I would hate to see that destroyed by corporate capitalism & culturally & socially harmful foreign business interests. There is already more than enough tourism infrastructure in the major tourist destinations already - their own hotels, restaurants & retail outlets are more than adequate enough already.

OTOH, Croatia is definitely up to EU-standards, its infrastructure, education & natural resources are above the norm as far as what I've seen. I've only been to Croatia twice, & mostly in Istria. It was fantastic & way superior in price/quality ratio with any Riviera destination. I'm surprised that it's taken this long for Croatia to accede, it is decades ahead in development when compared to countries like Bulgaria or Romania (my own country FWIW).

I would argue that they are nearly up to EU-standards. There have been serious problems with corruption & organised crime in Croatia since the beginnings of the Yugoslav wars, but I'm not sure how much things have really changed over the last few years to allow them to accede to the EU.

[comeonyouspurs.livejournal.com]

By the way, did you visit the Brijuni Islands?

[peamasii.livejournal.com]

No, I didn't visit any islands at all, it will have to be next time... First time I was in Porec and we also visited Rovinj and Pula, the second time I was in Opatija and remained there for the whole 4 days, it was just too nice and I didn't feel like driving around.