The demographic breakdown tells us a) who the Obama campaign targeted and b) who the Romney campaign failed to turn out.
No, it doesn't. The demographic breakdown just shows us how the members of certain demographics voted. That they happened to break more for Obama doesn't show that Obama targeted them - that's getting the inference backward.
If you wanted to understand who Obama targeted and whether that targeting does or doesn't point to a demographic problem for the GOP, you'd have to look at the respective percentages of eligible voters vs. actual voters of each demographic and how they actually voted - historically, and relative to one another. Do you have any relevant data to that end?
Right, because you've utterly ignored all the data presented up to this point so you can say that.
I don't think I'm ignoring anything; if I were, you'd be able to present some data that I am ignoring. I am just looking at the same data you're looking at, in this thread, and saying that an alternative explanation exists to the one you favor, which is that there is some "rightward shift" going on; my proposed explanation being that voters might have been just generally less enthusiastic about Obama in 2012 than they were in 2008. What data excludes this possibility? Particularly given that we know that they were less enthusiastic?
You keep citing Obama's legendary GOTV machine, but this remains nothing but a lazy hand-wave until you cite some evidence.
If it were truly the problem you're saying, the Republicans wouldn't hold the House right now and would be way, way outnumbered in the Senate and in the gubernatorial races. That's simply not the case.
And if there were truly a "rightward shift" going on, the Republicans would hold the White House and safe majorities in Congress. See how easy this is?
There are problems with your assertion here, but the most fundamental one is that no one is claiming that the demographics have already doomed the Republican party; this is a forecast for the future, based on current trends. Does the Republican party still have enough support among white men and seniors to keep a hold on power? Apparently so. Will that be enough in the future? What are you looking at that suggests that it will be?
The people who are saying that the Republicans have a demographic issue are just looking at how the numbers among the demographics are splitting. Your response to this is to say: "Numbers be damned, I know the truth, and the numbers wouldn't be what they are if Obama hadn't mounted a Herculean GOTV effort." No evidence at all for this, but hey. These demographics didn't break for McCain in 2008, they didn't break for Romney in 2012. Will they break for whomever the Republicans select in 2016? Your answer seems to be: "Maybe, if the Republicans adopt a more conservative position and target those demographics," despite the fact that none of the demographics that have broken against the Republican for the past two presidential elections seem to be won over or particularly inspired by the Republican's more conservative ideology. Only white men.
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Date: 11/11/12 00:06 (UTC)No, it doesn't. The demographic breakdown just shows us how the members of certain demographics voted. That they happened to break more for Obama doesn't show that Obama targeted them - that's getting the inference backward.
If you wanted to understand who Obama targeted and whether that targeting does or doesn't point to a demographic problem for the GOP, you'd have to look at the respective percentages of eligible voters vs. actual voters of each demographic and how they actually voted - historically, and relative to one another. Do you have any relevant data to that end?
Right, because you've utterly ignored all the data presented up to this point so you can say that.
I don't think I'm ignoring anything; if I were, you'd be able to present some data that I am ignoring. I am just looking at the same data you're looking at, in this thread, and saying that an alternative explanation exists to the one you favor, which is that there is some "rightward shift" going on; my proposed explanation being that voters might have been just generally less enthusiastic about Obama in 2012 than they were in 2008. What data excludes this possibility? Particularly given that we know that they were less enthusiastic?
You keep citing Obama's legendary GOTV machine, but this remains nothing but a lazy hand-wave until you cite some evidence.
If it were truly the problem you're saying, the Republicans wouldn't hold the House right now and would be way, way outnumbered in the Senate and in the gubernatorial races. That's simply not the case.
And if there were truly a "rightward shift" going on, the Republicans would hold the White House and safe majorities in Congress. See how easy this is?
There are problems with your assertion here, but the most fundamental one is that no one is claiming that the demographics have already doomed the Republican party; this is a forecast for the future, based on current trends. Does the Republican party still have enough support among white men and seniors to keep a hold on power? Apparently so. Will that be enough in the future? What are you looking at that suggests that it will be?
The people who are saying that the Republicans have a demographic issue are just looking at how the numbers among the demographics are splitting. Your response to this is to say: "Numbers be damned, I know the truth, and the numbers wouldn't be what they are if Obama hadn't mounted a Herculean GOTV effort." No evidence at all for this, but hey. These demographics didn't break for McCain in 2008, they didn't break for Romney in 2012. Will they break for whomever the Republicans select in 2016? Your answer seems to be: "Maybe, if the Republicans adopt a more conservative position and target those demographics," despite the fact that none of the demographics that have broken against the Republican for the past two presidential elections seem to be won over or particularly inspired by the Republican's more conservative ideology. Only white men.