What, exactly, is the spin? Are you not paying attention to the demographic breakdown of this past election?
The demographic breakdown tells us a) who the Obama campaign targeted and b) who the Romney campaign failed to turn out. It is not some microcosm of a new normal - if it is, there's certainly not enough data to support it as of yet.
Well, I dunno. I think you're making it up as you go along.
Right, because you've utterly ignored all the data presented up to this point so you can say that. The demographic "bomb," as it's put, is a nothingburger. If it were truly the problem you're saying, the Republicans wouldn't hold the House right now and would be way, way outnumbered in the Senate and in the gubernatorial races. That's simply not the case.
Every Senate seat has been through an election since the 2006 Democratic takeover. This theory isn't holding water, and for good reason. We can try and figure out why the Republicans struggle with Hispanics (I don't believe immigration reform tells the whole story), we can try and figure out whether blacks will come out for a Democratic candidate who does not specifically target them, we can figure out if the Asian immigrant vote is swingier or not, and all of those points may have some impact, but if the GOP isn't even close to grabbing its own base, none of those questions matter.
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Date: 10/11/12 17:08 (UTC)The demographic breakdown tells us a) who the Obama campaign targeted and b) who the Romney campaign failed to turn out. It is not some microcosm of a new normal - if it is, there's certainly not enough data to support it as of yet.
Well, I dunno. I think you're making it up as you go along.
Right, because you've utterly ignored all the data presented up to this point so you can say that. The demographic "bomb," as it's put, is a nothingburger. If it were truly the problem you're saying, the Republicans wouldn't hold the House right now and would be way, way outnumbered in the Senate and in the gubernatorial races. That's simply not the case.
Every Senate seat has been through an election since the 2006 Democratic takeover. This theory isn't holding water, and for good reason. We can try and figure out why the Republicans struggle with Hispanics (I don't believe immigration reform tells the whole story), we can try and figure out whether blacks will come out for a Democratic candidate who does not specifically target them, we can figure out if the Asian immigrant vote is swingier or not, and all of those points may have some impact, but if the GOP isn't even close to grabbing its own base, none of those questions matter.