Cometh The Frankenstorm
26/10/12 17:57![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
malasadas.livejournal.com posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsWeather forecasters in the Northeastern United States had a forlorn winter season last year with the only real excitement in the form of an unusually strong Nor'easter that dumped snow on the coast close to Halloween. There was precious little to do the rest of the winter except avoid making jokes about Al Gore.
Hurricane Sandy is expected to be forced towards the mid-Atlantic/New England region by high pressure over the Atlantic. Once the hurricane turns, it will meet with a powerful cold front and an unusually southern jet stream -- which has the potential to STRENGTHEN the storm just when most tropical systems lose strength. The result is expected to be a "Frankenstorm" cobbled together out of many different systems to rival the 1991 event called 'The Perfect Storm'. Inland and higher elevation regions can expect snow and high winds, while coastal regions can expect heavy storm surge, rainfall in excess of 10 inches, extensive flooding and tropical storm force winds hundreds of miles from the storm center.
Put bluntly: the entire meteorological community is more excited and giddy than Donald Trump offering a 5 million dollar bounty on the President's college transcripts.
Hopefully, the hype will turn out to be far more than the results, but as a semi-serious question, and reflecting![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
ddstory's post on the Italian scientists who were actually prosecuted and convicted for failing to give warning of an earthquake...despite the complete inability of their field to predict earthquakes, one has to wonder where is the point of diminishing returns on official warnings of acts of nature? Many new things could yet happen with this storm and while I am grateful to see preparations for power outages and flooding taking place now, I worry about the dulling of the impact of those preparations and warnings if people process them as "crying wolf" in the event the storm is much less severe. As consumers of scientific knowledge, Americans are, frankly, terrible. We don't usually possess the math and science backgrounds to properly digest information from experts or to dissect how the media repackages that information, usually poorly. When the weather forecast says there is a 30% chance of rain, you did not take your umbrella "for nothing" when you encounter no rain...nor did the forecast fail you when you did not take one and got drenched. But we certainly act that way.
If you are one of the people potentially in the path of "Frankenstorm" how are you taking in the reporting? How will you respond if the storm turns out to be as bad...or not as bad as feared?
Hurricane Sandy is expected to be forced towards the mid-Atlantic/New England region by high pressure over the Atlantic. Once the hurricane turns, it will meet with a powerful cold front and an unusually southern jet stream -- which has the potential to STRENGTHEN the storm just when most tropical systems lose strength. The result is expected to be a "Frankenstorm" cobbled together out of many different systems to rival the 1991 event called 'The Perfect Storm'. Inland and higher elevation regions can expect snow and high winds, while coastal regions can expect heavy storm surge, rainfall in excess of 10 inches, extensive flooding and tropical storm force winds hundreds of miles from the storm center.
Put bluntly: the entire meteorological community is more excited and giddy than Donald Trump offering a 5 million dollar bounty on the President's college transcripts.
Hopefully, the hype will turn out to be far more than the results, but as a semi-serious question, and reflecting
ddstory's post on the Italian scientists who were actually prosecuted and convicted for failing to give warning of an earthquake...despite the complete inability of their field to predict earthquakes, one has to wonder where is the point of diminishing returns on official warnings of acts of nature? Many new things could yet happen with this storm and while I am grateful to see preparations for power outages and flooding taking place now, I worry about the dulling of the impact of those preparations and warnings if people process them as "crying wolf" in the event the storm is much less severe. As consumers of scientific knowledge, Americans are, frankly, terrible. We don't usually possess the math and science backgrounds to properly digest information from experts or to dissect how the media repackages that information, usually poorly. When the weather forecast says there is a 30% chance of rain, you did not take your umbrella "for nothing" when you encounter no rain...nor did the forecast fail you when you did not take one and got drenched. But we certainly act that way.If you are one of the people potentially in the path of "Frankenstorm" how are you taking in the reporting? How will you respond if the storm turns out to be as bad...or not as bad as feared?
(no subject)
Date: 26/10/12 22:06 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 26/10/12 22:27 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 26/10/12 23:51 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 00:14 (UTC)As of tonight, the Weather Channel reports the computer modeling suggests this storm will hit between Philly and Long Island (ironically the "European model" is the most accurate) and is predicting a hit near NYC. And all the models (I think ten of them) point to a direct hit on the Eastern seaboard.
(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 00:35 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 00:38 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 00:41 (UTC)People who live north of Maryland accept that these weather events happen. If they don't want to deal with it...
I invite my liberal yankee friends to relo Down South, and take back state government from GOP yay-hoos
(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 00:52 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 01:02 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 01:25 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 01:33 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 01:54 (UTC)Let's call the whole thing off...*sings*
(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 01:57 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 11:46 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 12:50 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 15:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 19:35 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 22:54 (UTC)Technically, I am most like...
Date: 28/10/12 00:43 (UTC)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiram_Lodge
Now go fetch me my checkbook...
(no subject)
Date: 28/10/12 00:48 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 01:50 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 02:35 (UTC)If Sandy blows away my brand new duck blind, I am going to be seriously irritated.
(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 11:45 (UTC)I trust you know what you are capable of handling, but this thing is shaping up to a real monster with the systems all converging. Be safe.
(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 18:24 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 18:34 (UTC)My thoughts are now with my blind. I've lost three over the years, but none as nice as this. I filled the garvey with water today, it won't be blowing away with 1500 pounds of water weighing it down. If it floats away... that will be the least of my worries. In 100 years we haven't had water within 50 yards of our house.
Thank you for your concern and good wishes.
(no subject)
Date: 29/10/12 08:05 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 09:55 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 13:02 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 20:01 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 15:32 (UTC).
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USING HAARP!!!!!!!!111!!ELEVENTYONE!11!!!
(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 15:47 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/10/12 16:07 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 28/10/12 05:51 (UTC)Current plan is to stay here until we see where and how it hits. We can handle a couple of days without power but if it looks like there are worse things afoot, we'll decamp for somewhere further inland for a while.