Putin's fears

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Everything is going according to plan. Putin's ruling party United Russia is passing new interesting bills just in time, and the "right" bills, at that. By "right" bills I mean ones that would allow Kremlin to turn them into weapon for curbing civil rights and freedoms even further than their current dismal condition. And just in time, because the regime is preparing for a new wave of protests, come fall.

https://www.civicus.org/fr/espace-presse/communiques-de-presse/968-another-setback-for-freedom-of-assembly-hits-russia-say-civicus-and-greenpeace-russia

So what is all this about? In short: the new measures will limit the freedom of assembly. The old regulations on libel are also to be reinstated; new levels of censorship on the Internet will be legitimized; a select group of NGOs will be labeled as "foreign agents", therefore enemies of the state. Etc, etc.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18826661

What lurks behind this "counter-revolution" is not just the desire for revenge against those who raised their voices in protest during the winter and spring parliamentary and presidential elections. Behind the new draconian measures is the fear of Putin's regime from an upcoming protest wave, this time originating from the middle class, which could threaten the foundations of his power system. But it could potentially turn into a real threat for the rulers, only if it somehow manages to galvanize the disconvent among the broader masses.

Last winter, things didn't manage to reach that stage. This was evident from the presidential election in March, where Putin managed to win the support of the majority. But meanwhile, things have changed quite a bit, and along with that, both Putin's attitude to the situation, and that of the entire power elite. Meanwhile, the oil prices keep plunging on the international markets, and with that, Russia's capabilities to silence people's discontent with populist social gifts. For example, last month the electricity and gas prices soared, and the local taxes were drastically increased. And naturally, these changes were felt most strongly by the broad masses themselves, while the tiny elites kept amassing wealth and drowning in luxury. And when in September the Russians come back from their summer vacations, the situation will have changed beyond recognition. And that could bring new, this time more massive, popular protests.

http://www.capradio.org/news/npr/story?storyid=156802476

Russia was struck by a great tragedy in the recent days, the torrential floods in the Krasnodar region claiming many lives and destroying property worth billions of dollars. The disaster showed exactly how big a distrust the state is "enjoying" by the population. The catastrophe showed for the umpteenth time how incompetent the Russian authorities are to react adequately to disasters and incidents of this magnitude. That was kind of like Putin's Katrina, if you allow me the hyperbole.

The vertical power structure that Putin has created, can only function smoothly while it manages to isolate the organized protests of the middle class. But when at times of crisis the citizens look for the state for protection and aid, and it proves incapable of delivering, then the discontent of "those in the middle" would tend to bear fruit within days, if not hours. That's exactly the sort of turmoil that Putin and his ruling clique are preparing for, come autumn. This explains why the rulers are in such a terrible hurry to ensure that the necessary legislative measures for extinguishing the coming new protest tide, will be in place when they are needed. But would that be enough? Let's wait and we shall see.

Comments

[fierceleaf.livejournal.com]

Here is the Crude Oil Prices forecast:



The oil is the foundation of Russian economics, unfortunately. If oil prices are low, the whole Russian GDP is low. People will starve. Protest will go on. And no stupid laws released by government puppets will stop the rage of a poor mob. And the Russian riot is no good. I don't know which is better: to go through yet another revolution with a potential busyness and property loss from unleashed criminals or suffer from incompetent authoritarian government which eventually will lead to busyness and property loss due to activities of legalized criminals.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Russia has reached a point where queueing for bread at the grocery's has become a sort of political act. That's how things look like after this law banning the free assembly of people in large groups. The Russians are now asking the question, whether in jest or to make a point, whether they should be calling for police permission every time they're about to organise a wedding, a stroll in the park, or a sports competition. And yes, a mass visit to the mall, too. The police has been flooded with applications of this sort, and they might be beginning to realise exactly how dumb this law is.

[sealwhiskers.livejournal.com]

The law is beyond dumb, it's completely absurd and anti-democratic. It sort of cements for the umptienth time that Russia is not a real democracy and hasn't been so in a long while.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

I don't recall Russia having ever been a democracy ;)

[sealwhiskers.livejournal.com]

I think there was a short time in the 90's where they came close.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

That was only a mirage. Yeltsin sold most the country off to various oligarchs. Then Putin swept them away, only to substitute them with his own.

[sealwhiskers.livejournal.com]

Yes, but, while the sell-offs happened, there was still a lot of freedom for the commoners, not unlike in certain other democracies and semi-democracies where politics is in a corrupt bed with big biz. It's not ideal, or complete, but it has a semblance of democracy. Unlike now.

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

Naw, the police will see this as a new revenue opportunity, not as dumb.

[sealwhiskers.livejournal.com]

I think it's perfectly within reason to compare the Krasnodar disaster with Katrina, honestly.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Dammit Putin.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

He's at it again, isn't he?

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

When the authors of the Bill of Rights proposed a freedom of assembly, they did not have mass protests in mind. They were concerned that future legislative assemblies not be banned. By changing the idea of freedom of assembly to refer to mass protests, people fail to exercise their right to assemble for purposes of establishing a legal framework.

[root-fu.livejournal.com]

Would others do differently than Putin if they were in his shoes?

I wonder about that, sometimes. Better Putin than Stalin, I tend to think...

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

And where do you rank Yeltsin, Medvedev and the rest in that imaginary ranking of yours?

[root-fu.livejournal.com]

Yeltsin, Medvedev and the rest were virgins who never told lies, drank alcohol or did anything bad. In fact, it never even crossed their pristine and unblemished minds. (:

Putin is the only bad seed, obviously.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]