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talkpoliticsYeah, we've previously talked about the ridiculous Eurovision song contest. "This has been the most terrific Eurovision ever!", some of the leading European TV anchors exclaimed while presenting their countries' vote (friendly neighborly vote, no surprise). And they were right - indeed, terrific it was, but in a sense that Azerbaijan spent $686 million to organize the grandest visual and musical orgy of kitsch and irrelevant crap music ever seen. But behind the glamor of the Crysal Hall that was specially built for the event, and the shampoo-washed streets of Baku (with the brand new London taxis, specially purchased for the event), a different reality hides. Although no one in and outside the country speaks of that openly any more, Azerbaijan remains one of the most vicious dictatorships in Europe.
Let's take the Eurovision complex for example. The enormous Crystal Hall and the adjacent park and the coast boulevard were built in less than a year, and the president's daughter Leyla Aliyeva (who's something like Ilham Aliyev's personal PR guru) described the facility as "something no one has ever seen before".
The people who were displaced from their homes so that the complex could be built, would beg to differ, though. Most of them were thrown out of their homes with no prior warning, at 5 a.m., on a cold November morning last year. They weren't even given enough time to gather their belongings. All residential buildings in the area were demolished, their residents being forced to live wherever they could find - with relatives or in motels. That's what witnesses told Human Rights Watch.
And that's just one of many examples of sudden relocations, seizing of private property and other human rights violations that happened in relation to the construction of the Eurovision complex. In many of those cases, it was done without the owner's consent and without even notifying the owners in advance, i.e. illegally. Granted, some minor compensations have been handed out since then, but those were decided in rough estimates, arbitrarily, with no clear criteria, and moreover they were nowhere near being proportionate to the losses of the owners. And those cases are hundreds.
The thing is, this is nothing new for Azerbaijan. Many organizations like Human Rights Watch, Freedom House, Reporters Without Borders and other NGOs have stated in their reports that Azerbaijan often crosses the line of human rights, democracy, and the freedom of the press. There are more political prisoners in Azerbaijan than in Lukashenko's Belarus. Journalists and civil rights activists are often beaten, intimidated, or at the receiving end of smear campaigns and lawsuits, opposition leaders spend time in prison, there are even cases of political murders. There's a huge array of vote fraud as well - faking and changing ballots, threats about arrests of opposition leaders. The president always gets elected with a 80+% majority, and his wife always becomes MP with at least 94%.
At the 2010 election not even one opposition party was let into the parliament, and still the EU observers declared the vote "legitimate, and in accordance with all international standards" (!?) A report by the German think-tank European Strategic Initiative (ESI) describes how Baku managed to achieve such a favorable result.
ESI calls Baku's method "caviar diplomacy". The other name of this practice, of course, is corruption. Through gifts and special favors to various EMPs, Azeri envoys managed to secure protection from effective measures from the international community. It's telling that the only officially stated position from either Europe or the US has been a resolution of the European Parliament in 2011 which "condemns" the cases of human rights abuses in the country and calls for reform. Of course, the "soft power" of Aliyev's regime is rooted more or less on vast quantities ofcaviar oil. And money.
The problem is, Azerbaijan is a key link in Europe's energy strategy - its gas and oil treasures are important for both Russia, Turkey and the EU. Furthermore, being at roughly the same distance from Moscow, Ankara and Tehran, Azerbaijan is also very important for the US and Israel. No sanctions could possibly have an effect on Azerbaijan, because the EU has no diplomatic or political influence in the country. In fact, all major world leaders are queueing to meet with Aliyev. Why would they want to impose sanctions on him right now? That wouldn't make any sense, from a Realpolitik point of view. The first (and often last) point on the agenda in any diplomatic visit to Azerbaijan is always the same: "Energy talks". End of story.
Or it could be that Europe's influence in Azerbaijan is largely underestimated. It's true that EU is not a decisive factor for Azerbaijan, but after all, Azerbaijan prefers to sell oil and gas to the Europeans rather than the Russians, because the price for Europe is naturally higher. It's telling that for the first year of operation of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the country's GDP surged by a record 35%! This situation is perfect for Aliyev. The regime buys more time and perpetuates itself through the vast income from oil and gas trade. And whenever even the slightest hint of social tension appears, the government instantly raises the salaries (similarly to Saudi Arabia by the way).
There's also another nice method of discontent control. The administration is clumsy and poorly paid, so much of the business has to go into the grey sector, relying on the rampant corruption. On the other hand, there are many tough penalties against any form of corruption, which are however applied very arbitrarily by the bureaucrats. So, large segments of society are in complete dependence from the established system, and they're practically left outside of society, with no chance to play a role in the decision-making process in any way whatsoever. They cannot take actions against the regime. And that's why large chunks of the Azeri society have lost any hope that anything or anyone could change the status quo, and that their voices have any weight at all.
Does this mean that the Azeri regime could rest assured of its invincibility? Well, there are two possible strategies for development in front of the regime, and they largely depend on the fossil fuels, whose production is expected to reach its peak and start decreasing after 2018. On one side, the grip on power could tighten through increased repressions; on the other, gradual opening up and liberalization could ensue, so that the country could develop a really modern economy, and escape its almost complete dependency on oil and gas. Baku's shiny plans as presented in the so called White City project, suggest a desire on Aliyev's part to choose the latter road. But let me remind that Gaddafi also had similar plans for Libya a few years ago. Actually lots of observers believe that the countries from the Caspian basin and Central Asia in general will be the next who'll experience something like an Arab Spring. But for now, it's the posh Eurovision images that we'll keep seeing from that corner of the world. Exactly how long this illusion of prosperity will go on, no one can predict. But I'm guessing it won't be too long. And with downfall, comes turmoil.
Let's take the Eurovision complex for example. The enormous Crystal Hall and the adjacent park and the coast boulevard were built in less than a year, and the president's daughter Leyla Aliyeva (who's something like Ilham Aliyev's personal PR guru) described the facility as "something no one has ever seen before".
The people who were displaced from their homes so that the complex could be built, would beg to differ, though. Most of them were thrown out of their homes with no prior warning, at 5 a.m., on a cold November morning last year. They weren't even given enough time to gather their belongings. All residential buildings in the area were demolished, their residents being forced to live wherever they could find - with relatives or in motels. That's what witnesses told Human Rights Watch.
And that's just one of many examples of sudden relocations, seizing of private property and other human rights violations that happened in relation to the construction of the Eurovision complex. In many of those cases, it was done without the owner's consent and without even notifying the owners in advance, i.e. illegally. Granted, some minor compensations have been handed out since then, but those were decided in rough estimates, arbitrarily, with no clear criteria, and moreover they were nowhere near being proportionate to the losses of the owners. And those cases are hundreds.
The thing is, this is nothing new for Azerbaijan. Many organizations like Human Rights Watch, Freedom House, Reporters Without Borders and other NGOs have stated in their reports that Azerbaijan often crosses the line of human rights, democracy, and the freedom of the press. There are more political prisoners in Azerbaijan than in Lukashenko's Belarus. Journalists and civil rights activists are often beaten, intimidated, or at the receiving end of smear campaigns and lawsuits, opposition leaders spend time in prison, there are even cases of political murders. There's a huge array of vote fraud as well - faking and changing ballots, threats about arrests of opposition leaders. The president always gets elected with a 80+% majority, and his wife always becomes MP with at least 94%.
At the 2010 election not even one opposition party was let into the parliament, and still the EU observers declared the vote "legitimate, and in accordance with all international standards" (!?) A report by the German think-tank European Strategic Initiative (ESI) describes how Baku managed to achieve such a favorable result.
ESI calls Baku's method "caviar diplomacy". The other name of this practice, of course, is corruption. Through gifts and special favors to various EMPs, Azeri envoys managed to secure protection from effective measures from the international community. It's telling that the only officially stated position from either Europe or the US has been a resolution of the European Parliament in 2011 which "condemns" the cases of human rights abuses in the country and calls for reform. Of course, the "soft power" of Aliyev's regime is rooted more or less on vast quantities of
The problem is, Azerbaijan is a key link in Europe's energy strategy - its gas and oil treasures are important for both Russia, Turkey and the EU. Furthermore, being at roughly the same distance from Moscow, Ankara and Tehran, Azerbaijan is also very important for the US and Israel. No sanctions could possibly have an effect on Azerbaijan, because the EU has no diplomatic or political influence in the country. In fact, all major world leaders are queueing to meet with Aliyev. Why would they want to impose sanctions on him right now? That wouldn't make any sense, from a Realpolitik point of view. The first (and often last) point on the agenda in any diplomatic visit to Azerbaijan is always the same: "Energy talks". End of story.
Or it could be that Europe's influence in Azerbaijan is largely underestimated. It's true that EU is not a decisive factor for Azerbaijan, but after all, Azerbaijan prefers to sell oil and gas to the Europeans rather than the Russians, because the price for Europe is naturally higher. It's telling that for the first year of operation of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the country's GDP surged by a record 35%! This situation is perfect for Aliyev. The regime buys more time and perpetuates itself through the vast income from oil and gas trade. And whenever even the slightest hint of social tension appears, the government instantly raises the salaries (similarly to Saudi Arabia by the way).
There's also another nice method of discontent control. The administration is clumsy and poorly paid, so much of the business has to go into the grey sector, relying on the rampant corruption. On the other hand, there are many tough penalties against any form of corruption, which are however applied very arbitrarily by the bureaucrats. So, large segments of society are in complete dependence from the established system, and they're practically left outside of society, with no chance to play a role in the decision-making process in any way whatsoever. They cannot take actions against the regime. And that's why large chunks of the Azeri society have lost any hope that anything or anyone could change the status quo, and that their voices have any weight at all.
Does this mean that the Azeri regime could rest assured of its invincibility? Well, there are two possible strategies for development in front of the regime, and they largely depend on the fossil fuels, whose production is expected to reach its peak and start decreasing after 2018. On one side, the grip on power could tighten through increased repressions; on the other, gradual opening up and liberalization could ensue, so that the country could develop a really modern economy, and escape its almost complete dependency on oil and gas. Baku's shiny plans as presented in the so called White City project, suggest a desire on Aliyev's part to choose the latter road. But let me remind that Gaddafi also had similar plans for Libya a few years ago. Actually lots of observers believe that the countries from the Caspian basin and Central Asia in general will be the next who'll experience something like an Arab Spring. But for now, it's the posh Eurovision images that we'll keep seeing from that corner of the world. Exactly how long this illusion of prosperity will go on, no one can predict. But I'm guessing it won't be too long. And with downfall, comes turmoil.
(no subject)
Date: 11/6/12 17:52 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/6/12 18:02 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/6/12 20:09 (UTC)It's thanks to these double standards that the West has been turning a blind eye to authoritarian bosses and doing nice business with them while preaching about freedom and democracy with half a mouth. And that's why convenient "allies" like Aliyev will continue to exist.
(no subject)
Date: 11/6/12 20:41 (UTC)Baku has an interesting history as being the site of a fire temple and the destination of religious pilgrimages from India. The fire temple was powered by the same fossil fuel that makes it valuable real estate today.