Israel's Muslim brother
7/6/12 20:59![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticshttp://en.trend.az/news/politics/2025708.html
Although it is a predominantly Shia Muslim country, Azerbaijan has a complicated relationship with its neighbour Iran. And meanwhile it maintains good relations with Israel, based on mutual benefit from the arms-for-oil exchange.
In the geographic sense, Azerbaijan (roughly the size of Austria) is in one of the most complex regions of the world. Locked between two former occupation forces and current major geopolitical players, Russia and Iran. In order to prevent a possible return into either sphere of influence, Azerbaijan is desperately looking for allies in the West. And... it is finding them in the south.
Firstly, the Azeris are among the main oil suppliers for Israel. The import of Caspian oil makes for 16% of Israel's consumption. Recently the news broke that Israel has allowed the Azeri state oil company SOCAR a share in developing the oil field in Med Ashdod, in return for military and farming equipment at lower prices.
Another recent arms deal between the two countries happened in February and the Israeli military confirmed that they would sell surveillance aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles to Azerbaijan, worth 1.2 million euro. It is not unreasonable to expect that the Azeris are planning to use these against Armenia, with whom they have been in a never-ending conflict ever since the 90s. The peak of this conflict was in 1994 in the War of Nagorno-Karabakh. Although a truce was signed, the skirmishes never stopped completely.
OSCE adopted a resolution for arms embargo on both Armenia and Azerbaijan after this conflict. But because Israel is not an OSCE member, they do not feel obliged to respect the embargo. There is also a UN resolution urging all member states to refrain from arms deals that could further inflame the conflict. But Israel, along with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, have kept doing a very lucrative trade in this turbulent region for many years.
But I think the reasons for this unlikely partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel are elsewhere. The main suspicion now is that Baku will actually use the weapons against Iran. A Foreign Policy report makes the case that Azerbaijan could be used as a front post in a possible Israel-led military offensive against Iran, aimed at destroying its nuclear facilities.
At first sight, this theory makes a lot of sense - because of, or rather in spite of all the common things shared by Azerbaijan and Iran. Both countries are dominated by Shia Islam, they share common history and similar culture, and there is a vast Azeri population in Northern Iran - estimates are between 13 and 30 million (while Azerbaijan proper has just 9 million).
The secular Azeri leadership often complains of a strong religious influence from Iran. In return, Iran accuses Azerbaijan of inciting the Azeri minority in Northern Iran against the regime of the ayatollahs. Moreover, the two countries are still stuck in a dispute on the gas desposits in the Caspian Sea.
Of course Azerbaijan so far denies all speculations that they could give their air bases and their air space to the Israeli aircraft who would attack Iran. Indeed, it is in their interest to find a peaceful solution of the conflict, or at least that is what the presidential international affairs head Novruz Mamedov said, citing an article in the Constitution that explicitly forbids giving their space and territory for use by any third countries.
But in the meantime, the friendly relations between Azerbaijan and Israel do not look strong and deep enough for Baku to risk being involved in a serious regional conflict with unpredictable consequences. Not in these times, when the Azeris are trying to establish their country as an important geopolitical factor in the region, and a bridge between Central Asia and Europe, and between Russia and the Middle East.
Although it is a predominantly Shia Muslim country, Azerbaijan has a complicated relationship with its neighbour Iran. And meanwhile it maintains good relations with Israel, based on mutual benefit from the arms-for-oil exchange.
In the geographic sense, Azerbaijan (roughly the size of Austria) is in one of the most complex regions of the world. Locked between two former occupation forces and current major geopolitical players, Russia and Iran. In order to prevent a possible return into either sphere of influence, Azerbaijan is desperately looking for allies in the West. And... it is finding them in the south.
Firstly, the Azeris are among the main oil suppliers for Israel. The import of Caspian oil makes for 16% of Israel's consumption. Recently the news broke that Israel has allowed the Azeri state oil company SOCAR a share in developing the oil field in Med Ashdod, in return for military and farming equipment at lower prices.
Another recent arms deal between the two countries happened in February and the Israeli military confirmed that they would sell surveillance aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles to Azerbaijan, worth 1.2 million euro. It is not unreasonable to expect that the Azeris are planning to use these against Armenia, with whom they have been in a never-ending conflict ever since the 90s. The peak of this conflict was in 1994 in the War of Nagorno-Karabakh. Although a truce was signed, the skirmishes never stopped completely.
OSCE adopted a resolution for arms embargo on both Armenia and Azerbaijan after this conflict. But because Israel is not an OSCE member, they do not feel obliged to respect the embargo. There is also a UN resolution urging all member states to refrain from arms deals that could further inflame the conflict. But Israel, along with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, have kept doing a very lucrative trade in this turbulent region for many years.
But I think the reasons for this unlikely partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel are elsewhere. The main suspicion now is that Baku will actually use the weapons against Iran. A Foreign Policy report makes the case that Azerbaijan could be used as a front post in a possible Israel-led military offensive against Iran, aimed at destroying its nuclear facilities.
At first sight, this theory makes a lot of sense - because of, or rather in spite of all the common things shared by Azerbaijan and Iran. Both countries are dominated by Shia Islam, they share common history and similar culture, and there is a vast Azeri population in Northern Iran - estimates are between 13 and 30 million (while Azerbaijan proper has just 9 million).
The secular Azeri leadership often complains of a strong religious influence from Iran. In return, Iran accuses Azerbaijan of inciting the Azeri minority in Northern Iran against the regime of the ayatollahs. Moreover, the two countries are still stuck in a dispute on the gas desposits in the Caspian Sea.
Of course Azerbaijan so far denies all speculations that they could give their air bases and their air space to the Israeli aircraft who would attack Iran. Indeed, it is in their interest to find a peaceful solution of the conflict, or at least that is what the presidential international affairs head Novruz Mamedov said, citing an article in the Constitution that explicitly forbids giving their space and territory for use by any third countries.
But in the meantime, the friendly relations between Azerbaijan and Israel do not look strong and deep enough for Baku to risk being involved in a serious regional conflict with unpredictable consequences. Not in these times, when the Azeris are trying to establish their country as an important geopolitical factor in the region, and a bridge between Central Asia and Europe, and between Russia and the Middle East.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/12 18:42 (UTC)Meanwhile, Israel should seriously consider their options, should they proceed with the military scenario. They should do some thorough assessment of their aircraft capabilities, then perhaps they'd begin to realise that taking down Iran's nuclear capacity on their own is a steep slope to climb for them. Perhaps the US could do that job better on their behalf, so I'm guessing they'd play the situation in such a way as to force America's hand rather than doing the dirty job themselves.
(no subject)
Date: 8/6/12 08:14 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/12 19:21 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/12 20:07 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/12 21:36 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/6/12 06:12 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/6/12 14:23 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/6/12 16:28 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/6/12 02:43 (UTC)I'm a bit surprised that they're on the outs with Turkey though. I would expect the Azeris to be playing both sides of that fence, especially given how Turkey and Armenia get on. Well, I guess traditional enemies aren't what they used to be.
(no subject)
Date: 8/6/12 06:14 (UTC)Just a speculation.
Arming oneself does not necessarily mean a build-up to war. Often times it is used as a deterrent, as if sending a message to your neighbours "Do not mess with me".
(no subject)
Date: 8/6/12 14:28 (UTC)(It's hard for anyone to be NATO's tool right now, since NATO doesn't know what it wants anymore. That being said, Turkey's been playing its own game for a while now. I wonder if they'll slip into being Azerbaijan's patron if things get worse there).