[identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
Greetings, my vicariously bloodthirsty news vampires good people who care about peace and love in the world! See, if it weren't a stupid fact error, we could've believed the publications in a pro-government newspaper here that while Bulgaria was indeed the host of a historic secret meeting of all factions in the Syrian opposition the other day, it was simultaneously being pressed on that meeting to quit its support for Assad's regime. But that's exactly what comes across from a May 28 article in the BNews website (rough translation):

"The Syrian Opposition Holds Secret Meeting In Bulgaria"
BNews.bg

"Representatives of the Syrian opposition came out with a joint declaration after a secret meeting in Pravets
[the birthplace of our former communist dictator Todor "Tato" Zhivkov]. Over 40 representatives of all Syrian opposition factions insisted that Bulgaria, Russia and China should quit their support for Bashar Assad's regime.

"Earlier today, diplomatic sources announced that leaders of the Syrian National Council, headed by Burhan Ghalioun, are presently in Bulgaria, holding a secret summit, which had not been previously announced for security reasons.

"This is the first time three big delegations - of the Syrian National Council, the Kurdish National Council and the National Bloc, who unite all tribal leaders against the Syrian regime, came out with a joint text.

"The opposition leaders discussed the massacres in Hula, Hama and Idlib, and called for the UN and the international community to "take their share of the responsibility by immediately intervening in support of the civilian population, and put an end to the atrocities of the Assad regime, through adopting unambiguous resolutions on Chapter 7". This was the statement of the joint declaration after the meeting, the Bulgarian National Radio announces.

"Should the Syrian regime remain in power, this would lead to unseen escalation in the country, putting the entire region at risk, the opposition leaders are convinced.

"The Bulgarian Foreign Minister, Nikolay Mladenov was the formal host of the meeting. He announced that the meeting had the purpose to achieve maximum agreement between the various opposition factions in Syria".


Historic indeed it is! And, all subsequent jokes around our blogosphere aside (like: "Wow, Tato's birthplace is again the center of the world, weehee!"), the issue is actually more than serious. And it has several important aspects, going beyond the routine of the everyday chronicles popping up around the media, and the regular reports of the atrocities that are being committed by Assad's regime, to which I'm afraid the world has kind of begun to become too accustomed, IMO. As cynical as it may sound, people's tolerance to others' suffering and disaster tends to rise, the more the same sort of news is being repeated.

Russia and China, for the first time since the beginning of the Syrian crisis in March last year, did not block (but only conveniently edited) the umpteenth UNSC resolution that was meant to "condemn everyone carrying a gun in this conflict".

But no matter how much the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov is trying to writhe like an eel out of this situation in front of the public, saying that there's no logic for the Syrian government forces to embarrass themselves in front of the world by revealing themselves as the perpetrators of the Hula massacre (the one which provoked the UN resolution), one thing is for sure. The previously monolithic and stubborn Russian diplomatic defense for the Assad regime, which is indefensible by any basic criteria of humanity, has seemingly begun to crack. And, as has been mentioned here before, China's position would very much depend on Russia's stance, because Russia has far more at stake in this geopolitical game.

The whole situation reminds me of that bloody scenario where Sarajevo came under heavy artillery fire in 1995. 30+ people were killed, dozens were injured in the middle of the day. It was the last bloody drop that put the end of all patience and toughened the West's determination to intervene and stop the conflict in former Yugoslavia. For the success of that operation, Russia was brought on the side of the intervention, by offering them to participate with their own peace-keeping forces. Although Russia opted to use them as late as 1999, toward the final of the Kosovo war. Of course Russia had its own reasons to send its troops there, being paranoid about the imminent Western inroads into that geopolitical backyard of theirs. Which could be the card the West could use to lure Russia into complying with yet another international intervention in Syria's case, too.

But let's not go too far with all these analogies, because the two situations are very different and the context is never quite the same. What matters at this point is that the agony of the Syrian people, living under the heavy boot of a bloodthirsty dictator, and fighting an uneven battle of tanks vs guns and pistols (Russian-made on both sides, by the way) ((but no aircraft; Assad doesn't dare to fly them, because they could easily be tracked down by the NATO surveillance systems)), has finally caused a worldwide reaction, which may indicate that the moment is ripe to start to put an end to the Assad regime. Without its Russian crutch that's been holding it for so long, it's doomed to eventually fall on its knees before the court of history. And I'm guessing the latter won't be so lenient to Assad's atrocities, and the verdict will be very heavy. It's now become evident that the final countdown has begun, and the days of Assad and his butchers are numbered.

(no subject)

Date: 29/5/12 16:17 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
Well this should be interesting. Without the Russians Assad's regime will start withering on the vine very rapidly, though Russia is not IMHO going to shift all that fast unless it stands to get clear and actual benefits from it. Russia doesn't act like that. People leading other states might at least make a pretense of it, but Russians have never gone for that.

(no subject)

Date: 29/5/12 16:46 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com
LOL, I read it as "crotch", and I was like, OUCH!

(no subject)

Date: 30/5/12 04:16 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rimpala.livejournal.com
Syria shot itself in the Russian crotch...

Sounds like a job for more vodka!

(no subject)

Date: 30/5/12 04:09 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rimpala.livejournal.com
I certainly hope Assad's days are numbered.

Gotta love it when they shoot the protesters, yup. Way to show the world what you really think...

(no subject)

Date: 30/5/12 14:59 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sealwhiskers.livejournal.com
It's ironic that Arab Ba'ath socialism was created to end imperialism and colonialism, and
60 years later it's clear that it created its own "imperialism".
It's like the culture of corruption, oppression and father-son regency just switched format slightly,
but in certain (undemocratic) essentials stayed the same, under some sloppy make up. After all, Daddy Assad ruled for a quarter
of a century before the son took over. Again, the crass side of me is kind of terrified what the Arab spring will bring to countries with
Greedy and corrupt fractions when a system cracks. This doesn't mean that I don't want it, I do. And I guess a treaty between these
opposing factions is interesting and has a novel promising sort of ring to their claims.
(I meant, just the fact that the Kurds are in on it, for heaven's sake!)

Edited Date: 30/5/12 15:03 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 31/5/12 08:26 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
Irony abounds south of the Alps. (And probably iron, too; both in raw form and forged).

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